Good morning, afternoon, or evening depending on when you are reading this or where you are reading this. Welcome back for another chapter of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players.
This week the spotlight turns to the Great White North and shines on Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis. In case you haven’t been paying attention to the world of baseball lately, Francis is coming off a start in which he carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Angels.
As an encore on Thursday against Boston, his first start since facing the Angels, Francis took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and finished the night with no runs allowed on one hit, no walks, and five strikeouts in seven innings of work.
A Little Background
Francis was first drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 18th round of the 2016 draft out of Chipola College in Marianna, FL. Francis did not sign with the D-Backs and the move paid off as he was drafted in the seventh round one year later by the Milwaukee Brewers.
The 6-foot-5 right-hander pitched two full seasons in the Brewers’ system before being traded to the Blue Jays on July 6, 2021, along with Trevor Richards for Rowdy Tellez.
The trade was one that did not send shockwaves through baseball, and it didn’t look for Toronto at the outset as Tellez had a massive season for the Brewers in 2022 when he slugged 35 homers and drove in 85 runs. However, it is a trade that appears to be paying off for Toronto now. Tellez is now in Pittsburgh where he is having an average season at best. Meanwhile, Francis is establishing himself as a solid Major League starter.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | W-L | G-GS | IP | H | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0-0 | 1-0 | .2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 13.5 |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 20-0 | 36.1 | 22 | 1.73 | 0.83 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 8.7 |
| 2024 | 8-3 | 23-9 | 78.2 | 59 | 3.66 | 0.992 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 8.6 |
Francis has spent most of his professional career as a starter. In 136 appearances in the minors, 111 of those came as a starter. Overall he was 36-40 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. While the ERA is nothing to write home about, he showed the ability to strike out hitters, averaging 9.6 K/9 while allowing 3.2 BB/9.
Francis struggled on the mound in 2022, posting a 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP to go with a 5-10 record at Triple-A Buffalo. But he turned things around in 2023. In nine appearances, including seven starts, he had a 2.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with an eye-popping 13.5 K/9 rate and a very nice 2.1 BB/9 rate.
The Blue Jays liked what they saw from Francis and recalled him from Buffalo. But instead of inserting him into the starting rotation, they used him exclusively out of the bullpen. The move paid off as Francis posted a 1.73 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 20 appearances.
Reliever vs. Starter – 2024
| Role | W-L | G | IP | H | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Reliever | 3-1 | 14 | 26.2 | 29 | 4.39 | 1.425 | 9.79 | 3.04 | 6.4 |
| Starter | 5-2 | 9 | 52.0 | 30 | 3.29 | 0.769 | 5.19 | 1.73 | 9.7 |
Bowden Francis actually started the season in the rotation for the Blue Jays as he made starts on April 1 and April 7 against Houston and the Yankees. Those two starts were anything but good. The Astros bashed Francis for seven runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings of work. The numbers weren’t any better against the Yankees. In three innings on the mound, Francis allowed five runs.
After two starts he had a 12.96 ERA, allowing 12 runs on 12 hits and four walks in 8.1 innings of work. It is amazing, then, to see Francis’ numbers as a starter compared to being a reliever this season.
Overall as a starter, he has a 3.29 ERA and opposing hitters have a .164 batting average against Francis with a .215 OBP and .350 SLG. Since those first two starts, Francis has a 1.44 ERA with a batting average against of .137 in his last seven starts.
As a reliever this year, the ERA is 4.39 with a slash line against Francis of .274/.333/.434. Those are not horrible numbers, but they don’t compare well to what he has done as a starter.
A Really Great August
Bowden Francis has really burst onto the scene thanks to an outstanding month of August. In five starts and one brief appearance out of the bullpen, Francis went 4-1 with a 1.05 ERA and an unbelievable 0.408 WHIP. In 34.1 innings of work, he has allowed only 10 hits and four walks while striking out 39 batters. That is an average of 2.62 H/9, 1.05 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9. Simply amazing numbers.
After going five innings against Baltimore on August 7, he has gone seven, seven, eight, and seven innings in his last four starts and carried that no-hitter into the ninth inning in his start against the Angels while striking out a career-high 12 batters.
It is quite an amazing run and one that will end eventually. But is it just a one-time thing or is what we are seeing from Francis a preview of what he can do going forward?
The Tools
Bowden Francis doesn’t feature an overpowering fastball. As you can see, his average velocity of 93.3 mph ranks only in the 37th percentile. His chase percentage and whiff percentage rank way below the average major league pitcher. Yet he ranks in the 60th percentile in strikeout percentage. One reason for that is the fact his fastball has great movement.
His 1.7 inches of vertical movement is 11% above average. What does that mean? Well, it means the ball is not where the batters think is going to be when they start their swings. Opposing hitters have only a .188 batting average against his fastball with a .396 slugging percentage.
Francis features the fastball a lot in a day when many pitchers throw breaking pitch after breaking pitch. Francis throws the fastball 52% of the time, so even though hitters are likely looking for the pitch, they still aren’t able to do damage against it very often.
The fastball sets up Francis’ curve and splitfinger, pitches he throws 20% and 18% respectively. Opposing hitters are doing well against the curve, hitting .318 with a .614 SLG. But against the split, which averages 84 mph compared to his 93-mph fastball, hitters have a .172 average and slugging percentage against it. In 58 at-bats against the pitch, he has allowed only 10 singles.
The Future
When the Jays traded for Bowden Francis, many felt it was just to provide some depth in the minor leagues with the chance of him making the rotation at some point. That is probably due to the fact that, overall, Francis has average pitches.
But he gets the most out of those pitches. The more starts he has racked up, the better he has looked on the mound as he locates well and does a great job mixing his pitches.
The one potential caveat to take from his success, however, is who it has come against. Before Thursday’s start against Boston, his last three starts were against the White Sox (once) and the Angels twice.
Those are two teams that do not have good offenses, and it shows in Francis’ stats. In 22 innings of work, he allowed only five hits and two runs while walking three and striking out 27.
In his two previous starts before the stretch against the Angels and White Sox, he faced Baltimore, Francis threw 10.2 innings and allowed five runs on nine hits and two walks for a 4.22 ERA. But he walked only two and had a 1.03 WHIP against the Orioles. Then came Thursday’s start against the Red Sox, a team with a very good offense. Yet Francis set them aside as he did against Chicago and Oakland. Basically, Francis is proving to be a good pitcher, no matter who he faces.
Going forward I don’t think Bowden Francis is going to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter. But he can be a very solid No. 3 starter. In deep dynasty leagues, every team needs above average No. 3 starters. Right now that is who Francis is – a very solid No. 3 starter.
