College Football Week 6 Best Sports Betting Picks & Predictions | Deadspin.com

With a month of the 2024 college football season completed, some teams have already had their championship aspirations dashed while others gain weekly reasons for optimism. Here’s to your personal season, paralleling the action on the field more closely with the latter teams.

Whether you’re looking to keep the wins piling up into October or aiming to turn things around as the conference season gets underway, consider the following plays from the Week 6 slate.

Clemson -14.5 at Florida State

Since losing a one-sided Week 1 matchup with Georgia, Clemson has rolled over Appalachian State, NC State, and Stanford by 46, 24, and 26 points. The Tigers’ offense averaged 53 points in those three wins, thanks to running back Phil Mafah breaking off huge rushing gains and quarterback Cole Klubnik putting together perhaps the best three-game stretch of his career.

The Florida State defense is statistically the best Clemson will have faced since Georgia and arguably the most talented. Through the first four games, the Seminoles held opponents to a respectable 21.8 points per game, not allowing more than 28 in any single contest until visiting SMU last week.

But more on the blowout loss against the Mustangs in a moment.

First, defense hasn’t been the major liability evident in the Seminoles’ disappointing start to the 2024 campaign; Florida State’s inability to score has been its Achilles’ heel. The Seminoles average just 15.2 points per game, the third-lowest among power-conference teams. Only UCLA and Houston have been more anemic. The defense gave Florida State a chance to win against Georgia Tech and Memphis and was behind the Seminoles’ lone victory in a 14-9 defeat of Cal.

For a half at SMU, Florida State’s defense kept the Seminoles in striking distance. But an interception to open the second half and a quick punt on the next Florida State possession turned a 14-9 game into 28-9 in a hurry.

SMU was the most well-rounded offense Florida State had faced — until this week. Brock Glenn, who is starting in place of an injured D.J. Uiagalelei, will need to finish drives where Uiagalelei couldn’t. Otherwise, Clemson is poised to similarly overwhelm Florida State as the game progresses.

Florida ML +114 vs. UCF (DraftKings)

Florida went into its Week 5 bye on a positive note, with its highest-scoring performance against an SEC opponent during Billy Napier’s tenure as head coach. While the Gators’ 45-28 win came over a Mississippi State team struggling mightily in 2024, there’s momentum to carry into UCF’s visit on Saturday — in part because the Knights have had their own struggles.

UCF successfully dug out of a hole at TCU in Week 4 to escape with a 35-34 win, but the defensive deficiencies that allowed 6.6 yards per play to the Horned Frogs cost the Knights last week against Colorado.

UCF gave up 6.5 yards per play in a 48-21 loss to Colorado and forced just seven incompletions on 35 pass attempts. Florida has found some effectiveness since a rocky start to quarterback Graham Mertz’s season against Miami with a methodical passing strategy.

Mertz has completed 31 of his last 36 pass attempts and thrown four touchdowns against just one interception. With the UCF pass defense showing vulnerability in recent weeks, Mertz just needs to remain consistent without necessarily seeking deep shots to keep the Gators’ offense rolling.

As a home underdog fresh from a bye and with a favorable matchup, Florida looks like a promising straight-up winner in Week 6.

Ashton Jeanty +260 to Score 4+ TDs (FanDuel)

Put a fast-rising Heisman Trophy contender and the nation’s far-and-away leading rusher against a defense allowing almost 200 yards per game on the ground, and there’s potential for fireworks.

Utah State heads to Boise State, allowing 196.8 yards per contest and more than five yards per carry — and that’s before the Aggies face Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos’ back will get yards in this Mountain West Conference showdown; he’s reached at least 192 in 3 of 4 games.

The question is whether Boise State will need him enough to get into the end zone four times. He’s hit that milestone twice, but in those wins over Georgia Southern and Washington State, the game was competitive long enough to call for it.

Boise State shouldn’t have much trouble putting Utah State away early, so we should know if Jeanty can rack up four touchdowns for a third time this season not long into the third quarter. At +260, if Jeanty can do it, it’s worth a look.