Cooperstown Notebook: The 2024 Progress Report, Part II

Francisco Lindor delivered a gut punch last night — or rather two of them, homering from both sides of the plate Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium and powering the Mets to a 12-3 rout and a four-game sweep of this year’s Subway Series. After a slow start, the 30-year-old switch-hitting shortstop has been on fire since moving into the leadoff spot in mid-May. He’s helped the Mets turn their season around, given himself a shot at replicating last year’s 30-homer, 30-stolen base combination, and burnished a resumé that will in all likelihood carry him to Cooperstown one day.

The Mets already led 3-2 when Lindor came to bat with one on in the fifth inning. Batting from the left side against a scuffling Gerrit Cole, he smoked a 92-mph cutter on the inner edge of the strike zone, launching a towering shot into the second deck in right field to open up a 5-2 lead. With the score 8-2 in the seventh and two men on, he hit righty against lefty Caleb Ferguson and crushed a 95-mph middle-middle fastball for a 432-foot three-run homer to left center:

The homers were Lindor’s 20th and 21st of the season. Paired with his 20 steals, he’s on pace to match or top last year’s combination of 31 homers and 31 steals and join Ronald Acuña Jr. as the only active players with two 30-30 seasons under their belts; Bobby Witt Jr. (18 homers and 23 steals) and José Ramírez (24 homers and 18 steals) could join him as well. After batting just .195/.268/.362 (82 wRC+) through May 17, mainly while hitting second or third, he’s hit .306/.388/.566 (171 wRC+) with 14 homers in 268 PA out of the leadoff spot. The Mets were 20-24 when manager Carlos Mendoza made the move, but they’re 33-24 since, half a game behind the Cardinals (34-24) for the National League’s best record. They now occupy the second NL Wild Card spot, and instead of a much-anticipated sell-off ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, they’re likely to be buyers.

Lindor’s slow start and .259 batting average — his latest in a string of modest ones — fed into him being left off the All-Star squad for the fourth season in a row, but thanks to his power and defensive value, his 4.9 fWAR and 4.1 bWAR both rank third in the NL. Per ZiPS, he’s projected to add another 2.4 WAR this season. If he does that or comes reasonably close, he’ll surpass 40 bWAR for his seven-year peak — his seven best seasons at large, for use in JAWS calculations — a strong indicator of future election to the Hall of Fame. Until last year, I’d never done the math, but with the 2024 Hall election cycle behind us, over three-quarters of the eligible position players with at least 40.0 WAR in their best seven seasons are enshrined:

At every position, I’ve counted the total number of players with a peak WAR of at least 40.0; the number of Hall of Famers meeting that criterion; and the number of such players not yet eligible, either because they’re active, too recently retired to appear on a ballot, or on the permanently ineligible list. The last of those classifications applies to Pete Rose (whom JAWS classifies as a left fielder) and Shoeless Joe Jackson (right field). For catchers, I’ve used a 32.0-WAR threshold instead of 40.0, as their values are constrained by the limits of playing time and pre-framing measures. The percentage would be even higher if I were to account for players linked to performance-enhancing drugs, but I’m happy enough to have this three-quarters rule of thumb as it is.

Ramírez crossed the 40-WAR threshold last year, while Lindor is one of four players who ZiPS projects to do so this year; Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman, and Marcus Semien are the others, with Carlos Correa having a shot as well. Eight other active players have already reached that threshold.

With that, it’s time to dive into Part II of my annual Hall of Fame progress report; Part I, covering pitchers, is here. Unless otherwise indicated, all current WAR figures use the Baseball Reference version, which had not been updated to reflect Wednesday’s games by the time I filed this, and so all statistics are through Tuesday as well except where indicated (as in Lindor’s numbers above). All rest-of-season projections use the ZiPS’ Depth Charts version, which incorporates playing time estimates.

Catcher

Realmuto’s 2023 season (.252/.310/.452, 102 wRC+, 1.5 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR) was his worst year since his 2011 rookie campaign. The 33-year-old backstop is in the midst of another tough season, batting .259/.315/.403 (102 wRC+) with a career-high 26% strikeout rate, and while his Statcast numbers are on par with those from last year, he’s fallen 44 points short of his xSLG, possibly because he’s pulling the ball less. More damagingly, after playing at least 130 games in six out of seven full seasons between 2016–23, he missed six weeks due to a meniscectomy on his right knee, the longest absence of his career. He returned to action just last Saturday.

Early in his career, Realmuto was well below average as a pitch framer (-31.5 runs by FanGraphs’ methodology in 2015–16), but after improving to the point of being 8.6 runs above average as recently as 2021, he slid to 12.2 runs below average last year and is at -4.1 this year. That’s not accounted for in JAWS, where he ranks 29th, but his overall framing numbers (-21.6 FRM) don’t help him the way the numbers for upcoming candidates Buster Posey (128.8 FRM) or Yadier Molina (151.1 FRM, plus another 30.0 runs per Baseball Prospectus’ methodology for pre-2008 framing) do. With just three All-Star selections and two Gold Gloves (no small task in a league with Molina), Realmuto will have to rely on his bat to make his case for Cooperstown, and right now I’m not so optimistic he can.

Rightly beloved by Royals fans given that he was the MVP of the 2015 World Series and a foundational piece of the team’s back-to-back pennants, Perez has a resumé topped by nine All-Star selections and five Gold Gloves. That 48-homer season from a couple years ago turned some heads and started some arguments; he holds the record for most homers in a season by a player who caught at least 50% of his games, which doesn’t equal “the record for home runs by a catcher,” which is 42 by Javier Lopez in 2003, if we’re talking about the strict split; Perez hit 33 as a catcher and another 15 in his 40 games as a DH, which isn’t the same thing, though it’s still a great season.

The 34-year-old Perez is hitting a robust .279/.340/.472, with a 120 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR, that while spending less time behind the plate than usual; he’s got a 58-56 edge in games caught over Freddy Fermin, accompanied by 25 games at first and 19 at DH. From a value standpoint, his real problem is that he’s got the second-lowest total of framing runs (-117.2) among all catchers since 2008, which is to say that he’s nearly 270 runs worse than Molina in that span alone, though still nearly 50 runs ahead of poor Ryan Doumit. That data can’t simply be waved away now that we have it; this isn’t Derek Jeter’s terrible defense offset by 3,465 hits and five championships. Perez’s career Framing-Inclusive JAWS (fJAWS) line, with that data incorporated into his valuation, is just 17.2 career fWAR, 14.8 peak fWAR, and 16.0 fJAWS, miles behind the marks of Posey (57.5/47.7/52.6), Molina (58.6/39.5/49.1), and Joe Mauer (56.8/42.4/49.6). It’s also miles behind Russell Martin (58.2/39.8/49.0) and Brian McCann (53.4/39.9/46.7), both of whom are likely doomed to be undervalued by voters even as they anoint Molina on the basis of a “reputation” that is reasonably well supported by those defensive numbers.

First Base

Given his back-to-back seasons of -0.1 WAR, the Reds understandably declined the $20 million club option at the end of Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal, and after a winter of unemployment, he finally signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, he rolled his right ankle after homering in his only Grapefruit League plate appearance, subsequently battled lower back issues, and didn’t begin a rehab assignment until June 15. After hitting just .186/.321/.326 in 53 PA at two low-level stops, he reinjured his ankle during pregame warmups for his debut at Triple-A Buffalo on Friday. So it goes.

Suffice it to say that if the 40-year-old Votto hasn’t reached the end of the line yet, he’s awfully close. With seven on-base titles, six All-Star selections, a Gold Glove, an MVP award, 2,135 hits, and 356 homers, his counting stats aren’t overwhelming, but he’s cleared the peak and JAWS standards for first basemen, ranking ninth in the former category and 12th in the latter, ahead of the just-inducted Todd Helton in both. Throw in his status as a media favorite, and I think we’ll see him in Cooperstown soon enough.

Goldschmidt won NL MVP honors as a 34-year-old in 2022, but two seasons later, he’s showing his age. What initially looked like a particularly slow start turned into a spot on my recent Replacement Level Killers list, as he’s hitting a meager .226/.287/.370 (88 wRC+) with 14 homers. His quality of contact isn’t as bad as his numbers suggest (he’s got a .446 xSLG, for one thing), but his strikeout rate has spiked nearly six percentage points to a career-worst 29.2%, and his defense has slipped into the red.

Even so, Goldschmidt has seven All-Star appearances and four Gold Gloves to go with his MVP award. He’s got 354 home runs, and with a hit on Wednesday night is just two away from the all-important 2,000-hit milestone. He’s 17th in JAWS, dead even with the standard (53.4), and 13th in peak score. I do think he’s capable of a rebound, but it may well come somewhere besides St. Louis, as he’s a pending free agent. He’s not quite up to Helton or Votto either by the traditional numbers or the advanced ones; I think he’ll wind up enshrined, but he could really fortify his chances with at least one more solid season before taking up permanent residence in replacement-level territory.

Suffice it to say that Los Angeles agrees with Freeman. He set a career high in WAR last year with 6.5, and is projected to surpass 18.0 WAR for his first three seasons in Dodger blue, with those accounting for three of his four highest single-season WAR marks. On that note, he’s added 7.0 WAR (and 5.1 JAWS) since I ran though this exercise a year ago. The 34-year-old first baseman just made his eighth All-Star appearance and is hitting .288/.394/.495; his slugging percentage is his lowest mark since 2016, but his 150 wRC+ is the fourth-highest full-season mark of his career.

In other words, Freeman is still going strong, and with 2,221 hits, he’s got a realistic shot at 3,000 as well — via Dan Szymborski, he’s got a 49% chance — as 400 homers (he has 337). His peak isn’t as high as those of Goldschmidt or Votto, but he’s well ahead both in terms of the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor — which dishes out credit for things that have tended to sway voters, such as seasons with 30 homers, 100 RBI, 100 runs, careers with a .300 average or better, awards, league leads in key stats, and playoff appearances — thanks to all those .300 seasons and his championship; he has 130 points to Goldschmdit’s 105 and Votto’s 89. He’s poised to reach the 40-WAR peak threshold, and by this time next year, could be around the JAWS standard for the position. With that, he’ll likely head into the back half of his 30s more widely viewed as a future Hall of Famer than either of those contemporaries — or Helton, for that matter.

Second Base

After suffering a broken right thumb in the World Baseball Classic last year, Altuve played just 90 games, though he wielded a potent bat, hitting for a 154 wRC+. The pint-sized 34-year-old is back down to a more representative 129 wRC+ (.304/.350/.452), but unlike so many of his teammates, he’s been healthy all season, totaling 14 homers and 15 steals in 98 games. He’s been uncharacteristically free-swinging; his 39% chase rate is over eight percentage points ahead of last year and represents his highest mark since his 2011 rookie season. His 5.8% walk rate is about five points below last year and is his lowest mark since 2015, while his 19.4% strikeout rate is a career high.

While it’s not a typical Altuve season, he’s making progress towards Cooperstown. He’s projected to reach the 40-WAR peak mark this year, and would leapfrog 2025 candidates Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler to move into 19th in JAWS if he matches the above projection. He just made his ninth All-Star team; only eight second basemen have been selected more often. He’s run his hit total to 2,170, and now has a 42% chance to reach 3,000, higher than any player beside Freeman. The further we get from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, the less it seems likely to affect his Hall chances, particularly given reports that he rejected the help provided by the trash can signaling system. Between that and the absence of contemporary second basemen who could gain entry (Kinsler, Pedroia, and twice-suspended Robinson Canó), he’s got an open lane to Cooperstown so long as he can stay on the field.

Like Freeman, Semien has banked 7.0 WAR since last year’s exercise, and he’s gotten even more mileage out of it, adding 6.1 JAWS. While he’s played only 585 games at second base compared to 813 at shortstop, he’s now classified at this position because he’s been more valuable here.

Semien got a comparatively late start for Hall purposes, playing just 85 games with 1.4 WAR before his age-24 season in 2015, and with three All-Star selections and one Gold Glove, he’s a little light in honors, though of course he took home a World Series ring last year, and finished third in the MVP voting for the third time. He’s put himself on the radar by combining impressive power (a high of 45 homers in 2021, and 55 across ’22-23), excellent defense (49 DRS since the start of 2021), and durability (he played 161 or more games four times from 2019–23). Thanks to seasons of 8.5 WAR in 2019, 7.1 in ’21, and an American League-high 7.4 WAR last year, he’s outproduced everyone except Mookie Betts (44.5 WAR) and Aaron Judge (40.4 WAR) since the start of 2019, and is closing in on the 40-WAR peak threshold. He projects to climb to 23rd in the JAWS rankings this year, and while he still has work to do, the heaviest lifting is already done.

Shortstop

Adding to what I wrote above, Lindor entered the season second in homers, fourth in steals, and fifth in wRC+ (132) among shortstops. By DRS — which is used in bWAR — his defense has been merely average, but by Statcast’s FRV, he’s six runs above average; the latter system now values him higher by 50 runs relative to the former (97-47), and that’s without Statcast providing fielding data for Lindor’s 2015 rookie season. His 15.7 WAR since the start of 2022 ranks sixth, behind only Judge, Betts, Juan Soto, Freeman, and Semien; if he hits his projection, he will have banked 18.1 WAR over those three seasons. Book this man a spot on next year’s All-Star team already.

When he’s been available this season, Correa has hit .308/.377/.520 for a 152 wRC+, his highest mark since 2017, but he’s played just 75 games, missing 16 in April due to an oblique strain and landing on the IL last weekend due to another bout of plantar fasciitis. His 346 games since the start of 2022 are 76 fewer than Lindor, and he was subpar last season (96 wRC+, 1.9 WAR) while playing through plantar fasciitis, which helps to explain the two shortstops’ 2.6-point relative swing in JAWS since this time last year. That said, Correa is 10 months younger than Lindor, so trailing him at this juncture is hardly inappropriate.

This is already Correa’s seventh-best season by WAR, so he has a shot to reach the 40-WAR peak threshold this season if he can make a timely return and play up to his capabilities. He’s still hearing it from some fans regarding the Astros’ sign-stealing, but with current candidate Carlos Beltrán trending towards eventual election (he received 57.1% in his second year of eligibility) and Altuve destined to hit the ballot years ahead of him, Correa probably won’t be singled out for exclusion from the Hall based upon his participation in the scheme.

Also: Xander Bogaerts is a second baseman now, and after a rough start to his season, he missed nearly eight weeks due to a left shoulder fracture. So far he’s got 0.1 WAR in his age-31 season, and he’s unlikely to to improve upon the peak score of his 39.7/34.7/37.2 line this year; with four seasons in the 3.8–4.9 WAR range, he’ll have his chances down the road. Trea Turner (35.7/30.3/33.0), who’s also in his age-31 season, missed over six weeks due to a left hamstring strain but has recovered as smoothly as one of his famous pop-up slides, hitting a sizzling .338/.385/.540 (160 wRC+) and starting at shortstop for the NL in the All-Star Game. He’s only got 2.4 WAR, but anything above 3.0 will elevate his peak score. Corey Seager knows a lot about missed time and its impact on Hall cases. He set a career high with 6.9 WAR last season despite playing in just 119 games, and won his second World Series MVP award. As he’s played in 135 games or more just three times, there’s a lot of slack in his 34.9/30.8/32.9 line; his 3.1 WAR this year, his age-30 season, is already his sixth-best mark, and he only needs 3.9 WAR to get to his fourth-best — but he’s going to have to stay healthy if he really wants to make tracks towards Cooperstown.

I’ll include the third basemen with the outfielders and unicorns in Part III.