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Crude oil futures end the week little changed as persistent concerns about the demand outlook in China and easing geopolitical risk offset economic data showing slower inflation and robust retail sales pointing to resilient consumer spending.
“It has been a volatile week in oil markets: On one hand you had fears of supply disruptions from a wider Middle East war, but on the other, slowing growth in China forced revisions of demand forecasts,” energy consultant Andrew Lipow said, Reuters reported.
In the Middle East, two days of talks seeking a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and release of hostages in Gaza reportedly have made progress, and the talks are seen delaying an expected Iranian attack on Israel that has added to recent risk premium in oil.
“Provided the situation in the Middle East does not escalate further, the oil price is likely to tread water,” Commerzbank analysts said.
Data from China this week showed its economy lost momentum in July, which prompted the country’s refineries to sharply cut crude processing rates last month on tepid fuel demand.
Softness in China was cited by both OPEC and the International Energy Agency this week in lowering forecasts for oil demand growth.
But oil prices were supported by a string of data releases from the U.S. for July, including a 2.9% Y/Y rise in the consumer price index and a 0.1% tick higher in the producer price index.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for September delivery closed -0.2% to $76.65/bbl this week, including a 1.9% loss on Friday, and front-month October Brent crude (CO1:COM) finished roughly flat for the week to $79.68/bbl, including a 1.7% decline on Friday.
Also this week, front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM) for September delivery ended -0.9% to $2.123/MMBtu, losing 3.3% on Friday.
ETFs: (USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)
Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE), as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, ended the week +1.2%.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Skeena Resources (SKE) +46.7%, Perpetua Resources (PPTA) +43.4%, FutureFuel (FF) +30.5%, Osisko Development (ODV) +27.4%, PrimeEnergy (PNRG) +22.6%, Collective Mining (CNL) +21.3%, Iamgold (IAG) +18.7%, New Gold (NGD) +17.9%, Lithium Americas (LAC) +17.3%, Orla Mining (ORLA) +17.2%.
Top 5 gainers in energy and natural resources in the past 5 days: Zeo Energy (ZEO) -17.6%, Hawaiian Electric (HE) -13.7%, Piedmont Lithium (PLL) -10.5%, Compass Minerlas (CMP) -9.8%, Verde Clean Fuels (VGAS) -9.7%.
Source: Barchart.com
