Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/13/24

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

David: Dan-is there anything in the numbers that shows what is wrong with the Braves right now? A cursory look makes it seem like the metrics of this year and last year are relative close.

Dan Szymborski: Well, a number of hitters are underperforming! Olson, the injured Acuña, and Riley all had prominent spots in the zstats update I posted yesterday

Tacoby Bellsbury: What baseball player archetype corresponds to each of your cats at this stage in their careers?

Dan Szymborski: Oh geez, I’m not sure

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio’s kind of Fernando Rodney-y. Constantine’s kind of moody

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how it work though

Tjf167: Are you looking forward to the Rickwood Field game?

Dan Szymborski: I think it should be fun. I dig special event games

Joe: i’ve seen triple slash lines on a pitcher’s individual pitch- for example, Chris Sale’s slider .190/.230/.401- and what does the OBP represent? I can understand how a single pitch could have an AVG and SLG, but what does OBP mean?

Dan Szymborski: presumably that’s the pitch they walk on? I don’t see OBP for pitches that often

Tjf167: Crochet and the Orioles feels like the deadline move that makes the most sense. I would assume it would have to be painful from the Orioles side – how much would you be willing to part with?

Dan Szymborski: I’d give up Mayo or Norby. I would not give up Holliday

Tjf167: Is the most underrated aspect of Aaron Judge’s performance this year that he’s a 32 year old 290 pound man who’s play a plus defensive center field?

Dan Szymborski: It coudl very well be.

Dan Szymborski: The fact that he’s even competent out there given how big a dude he is is just amazing

Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t need to be prime Kiermaier to be impressive

Dan Szymborski: Like if I woke up one day and found a cat playing the cello, I wouldn’t be disappointed if the cat is inferior to, say, Jacqueline du Pré.

Dan Szymborski: I guess Samoa Joe is in the same category?

Guest: The Giants could use a left handed bat for their lineup. Who would be a realistic target. Jazz maybe?

Dan Szymborski: That’s actually an interesting idea, but problem is, I have no feel for how the Marlins are thinking

Dan Szymborski: outside of an intense fear every time they have to pay money for something

Tjf167: I ask this question often and no one ever has the answer- how come there is not analysis on the correlation of exit velocity and bat brand/make? We obsess about the stitches on the ball, but no one ever talks about the different bats. Why?

Dan Szymborski: I think because we have even less information about the bats than the balls, thanks to the latter being allegedly standardized

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure if people start shipping Meredith Wills a bunch of game-used bats she’d find something interesting

Mr. Flask: If you could travel back in time to see a game (just a normal game) at a now-gone MLB stadium, which one would you choose, and why?

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to see the Polo Grounds just because the weird configuration of the park makes such a different game

Dan Szymborski: Playing in it in MLB the Show has made me want that

roderick: Awhile back there was talk about Blue Jays management preferring contact over power. Could that explain Vladdy’s extreme groundball approach and lack of pulled flyballs? I need hope

Dan Szymborski: It COULD be, but I’m not privy to the private conversations they have

Dan Szymborski: I talk to front offices quite a bit, but I’m always aware that what they tell me is incomplete

wingedbeater: Rank your confidence in ZIPS’s general ability to predict the following: (1) age-related decline for an MLB position player, (2) age-related decline for an MLB pitcher; (3) MLB success of an MiLB position player prospect, (4) MLB success of an MiLB pitching prospect, (5) MLB success of an IFA position player transferring from a non-US professional league, (6) MLB success of an IFA pitcher transferring from a non-US professional league

Dan Szymborski: About that order!

Maddie: Hey Dan. Some quick questions on some Giants prospects:

How concerned are you about Luciano’s defense?
Is it worth playing Matos over Yaz or Slater right now?
How sustainable is Heliot Ramos’ early season success?

Dan Szymborski: A lot of Heliot’s improvement is likely real, the projection systems have all moved up like 25-35ish points of OPS for ROS

Dan Szymborski: Though he just missed the zStats chart for OPS; zStats has him at .264/.353/.447, meaning there’s likely some air at least pumped into his current numbers. But the thing is, .264/.353/.447 in itself is damn good in this offensive environment in SF

Juan: On a scale from 1 to Astros, where would you rate Baltimore’s rebuild up to this point?

Dan Szymborski: 9

Dan Szymborski: They still have to show, past Burnes, that they’re willing to go over the top

Dan Szymborski: and we still have to see if they can keep the team together

Dan Szymborski: now, the new owner has said some positive things

Dan Szymborski: but it’s a lot less expensive to buy every a round at Pickles Pub than it is to sign Gunnar Henderson to an nine year extension

Tim: Nathaniel Lowe was already being a singles hitter and it’s only gotten worse. He’s hitting the ball dramatically less hard and how much longer do we give him to right the ship? I’ll have to make a decision when Jung returns (hopefully in the next 10 days) and I can move on with Vaughn and cut Lowe loose

Dan Szymborski: I think his rope is running out of…uh…rope

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit incredibly weakly this year and the Rangers aren’t in a position to be patient

Dan Szymborski: He’s only really had one excellent season

Dan Szymborski: offensively, and the rest are just fine-ish. If we’re talking fantasy, I don’t think Lowe has a ton of value unless we’re talking REALLY deep leagues

Dan Szymborski: But here’s the problem: I have even less faith in Vaughn

Jeremy: Odds that one NL playoff team finishes below .500? Odds that two do so?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually had it less than 10%

Dan Szymborski: The average wins for the eventual wild card winners in the last run was 91.8, 88.0, and 85.4 in the NL

Dan Szymborski: (in the AL, it was 93.6, 89.5, 86.8)

Aaron Judge: Have you seen anything like these past three hitting seasons that wasn’t, you know, Bighead Barry? We all thought 2017 was impossible. But that he’d never outdo it. And then 2022. And surely he’ll decline from there. And now this.

Dan Szymborski: No, Judge’s had the best hitting years since Bonds

Dan Szymborski: Getting 11 WAR is massive!

Tjf167: Giancarlo Stanton is having a somewhat productive season with the bat despite pretty much not walking anymore. Is it worth rostering a 0.5 WARish DH only if you’re a world series contender?

Dan Szymborski: As always, it depends on who the player would be otherwise

Dan Szymborski: Stanton’s incredibly meh, but he’s not the team’s biggest problem

Oaktown Blues: It’s June and Brent Rooker has a 150 wRC+ with the xWOBA to match. But he’s also sporting a 34.6% K rate. Is he due for a collapse?

Dan Szymborski: Likely not a collapse

Dan Szymborski: the zStats have his triple slash at .261/.334/.496

Dan Szymborski: So 150? That’s a bit too juicy. But he’s still hitting very well

Dan Szymborski: OH, didn’t answer the whole Giants question from above. Sorry, I’m easily distracted

Dan Szymborski: Not sure Matos OVER either of those other two

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t think there’s any PARTICULAR reason to be worried about his defense, at least any more than a couple months ago

Dan Spivey: Nats fastest team to cross 100 SB since 2009. Any Moneyball-esk market inefficiency there? I love teams that aren’t expected to compete doing weird, wild stuff.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced teams are stealing enough

Dan Szymborski: BUT…that analysis doesn’t include injury risk and I haven’t really ever dove into that

Hans Buby: How do you solve a problem like A. Rizzo?

Dan Szymborski: I think you spread some butter and a poached egg on top

Holliday: He still doesn’t seem to have found it down in the minors. Panic time yet?

Dan Szymborski: Uh…he’s a 20 year old shortstop with a wRC+ around 140 in Triple A

Dan Szymborski: why would we panic abotu that?

Dan Szymborski: Now, there is a bit of a worry that he might not be aggressive enough at the plate in the minors, a touch of Jeremy Hermida Disease, but it’s way too soon to worry about that

Dan Szymborski: call me in 2027 if that hasn’t changed

Aaron Judge: Judge has had more barrels since his streak started than anyone in baseball has had the whole season. And it’s not close?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s accurate

Colton: What’s the worst every game performance that would still hold positive value? I think this is a better question than the “if a person went 1-3 with only singles every game.”

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto sure, our tools are mostly macro than micro

Dan Szymborski: oh a philosophical level, maybe 0-6 but two of the other team’s stars mess up their hammys fielding your outs?

jj: I would love to see a mid/late-season update on some early season stories about players who Fangraph writers thought there was a change the player’s outlook like they do prediction articles.  The Jo Adell article stands out this year. Every year SSS is stressed in general and “April”, but every year I read multiple articles about a player on an early season hot streak who has ‘changed’ something, but then that “change” seems to regress and we get a very similar end result.

Dan Szymborski: It would be interesting

Dan Szymborski: Though I worry about it being a little meta

Vader: Thanks for the chats…what stats does the Great Dan use when he wants to evaluate hitters? Pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: I’m just the mediocre Dan

Dan Szymborski: but in any case, philosophically, I use the simplest stat available in the situation that doesn’t change the basic truth of the conclusion

Dan Szymborski: I knwo this might sound weird coming from ME, but I don’t like complexity for the sake of complexity

Dan Szymborski: I do some complex things, but only because I believe those complex things are the best way to reach specific intellectually honest conclusions

Guest: How do you anticipate baseball changing if MLB switched to cricket rules where one team bats their entire 9 innings in a row and then the home team bats after?

Dan Szymborski: You might kill some pitchers

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t know enough about cricket.

Fluke: What was less likely: Judge’s 2022 or that 2022 wasn’t a fluke? Like, how many people hit 10+ WAR once vs those people doing it more than once?

Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t

Dan Szymborski: it may be at the upper end of his range, but it’s not a fluke

Also Dan: Can you give a (made up if necessary) example of the kind of information teams buy from you? You mentioned selling “super detailed” ZiPs for Shota Imanaga to some teams a few weeks ago, what does that look compared to the projections we see in a typical article?

Dan Szymborski: The basic projection I sell they get the whole careers and all the probability information and comps. For an extra thing or an extra pre-baked assumption, I’ll throw that in for an additional $250 per

Dan Szymborski: and teams sometimes ask for *very* specific things. Like all the projections but in their park, or a player’s projection on every team, so on and so forth

Dan Szymborski: And some things are niche. One team ONLY subscribes to a bi-weekly projection of the tipping point win for every playoff spot in their league

Dan Szymborski: for pre-baked assumption, stuff like “assume this player is +X at a certain position they haven’t played much” or “what if this player improved their O-Swing by 5%”

Guest: Is there an inconsequential secret that you’ve never told anyone that you’d like to share?

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: I’ve binged the entire run of MacGyver on MULTIPLE occasions?

Dan Szymborski: Some years ago, I was once really hungry in the middle of the night but was really lazy, so I just took a sip of caesar dressing straight from the bottle

btravers: Do you think the cubs are unlucky or just bad?

Dan Szymborski: I think unlucky and middling

Dmx: Last week’s dodgers/yankees opener is exhibit A for elimination of the ghost runner.

Dan Szymborski: zombie runner!

Andrew: Rutschman’s walk rate has cratered but his power and average have increased. Do you think this was a conscious decision?

Dan Szymborski: It feels like a conscious decision, he’s just a lot more aggressive on marginal pitches

Dan Szymborski: to a degree that I can’t think it’s just playing worse

Dan Szymborski: and I’m guessing nobody sprays him int he eyes with hot sauce before every game

danny: have there been any thoughts on expanding the video content to more analytical stuff? I love the site but there’s so many times where I’m like I would love to see this article as a video

Dan Szymborski: We haven’t really talked about that much

Dan Szymborski: I think the issue is the skillset matching

Dan Szymborski: On staff, we don’t really have a dedicated audio/video person, which is why we haven’t relaunched FanGraphs Audio since Dylan left

Dan Szymborski: I would suspect if we did that route, we’d partner with one of the few really popular baseball YouTube creators out there

Guest: Do you have any charts tracking your weight loss journey?

bat question: and Meredith wills is not the authority on this subject. it is jj crisco, Richard Greenwald, and many others with decades of published work on the topic. a shame this community is not more interested.

Dan Szymborski: Charts? No

Dan Szymborski: Just slowly and steadily losing weight

Dusty Baker: Dusty Baker got a lot of crap for the way he treated Chad McCormick last year. Was he right all along or is this a different year different outcome thing?

Dan Szymborski: Meh, it’s like 110 PA

Disaster at Sacrifice: I just want to appreciate you referencing Jacqueline du Pre and Samoa Joe in the same post. The numbers don’t lie about Judge being great.

Eastville: O’s extensions: Henderson = Bobby Witt, Adley = Realmuto, Westburg = ??

Dan Szymborski: Well, from the O’s point of view, ALbies would be best!

Dan Szymborski: lol

Guest: There’s a casual relationship between WAR and a player’s popularity among fans. (A lot more people would say Judge is their favorite player than Dominic Smith.) What player has defied that relationship for you personally enjoying watching a player?

Dan Szymborski: Well, even when his WAR has been not so good, Elly De La Cruz

Dan Szymborski: And Oneil Cruz has been way more fun than his overall lines

Dan Szymborski: And Nelson Cruz. He’s not really overrated, but I want to pretend that everyone with the last name Cruz is more fun than their WAR

Pete Alonso: Where am I playing in August?

Dan Szymborski: The United States

Yo Yo Mama: Hey Dan – your reference to Jaqueline du Pre tells me you’re maybe a big classical music guy. What’s your top 5 composers power ranking look like?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I talk classical music from time to time in the off topic Qs

Dan Szymborski: I’m not big on ranks like this

Dan Szymborski: but I can tell you the composers I’ve listened to most from the Media Monkey stats’

Dan Szymborski: Looks like my five most listened to, at least from my personal collection, are Mahler, Beethoven, Bruckner, Haydn, Chopin

Alf: Do you think that the “seller’s market” thing is overblown? Or will there really be a significant difference in the cost of acquiring established players?

Dan Szymborski: Tends to be overblown, but ti’s real in a limited way I think

Dr J: i was wondering what data, if any, correlate to predicting future successful closers? For example, Jason Martinez and Ben Joyce can throw 100+, but does that play a roll in predicting future saves chances? Is that or anything else of note? Thank you for all you do!

Dan Szymborski: Basically, being good is the notable predictor

M: How does ZiPS say should close for the Cubs? My money is on Tyson Miller (and it certainly can’t be Hector Neris).

Dan Szymborski: IF he’s in the pen when his neck is better, Ben Brown

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS really just doesn’t like the Cubs bullpen at all

Dan Szymborski: it thinks the next best pitcher is the also injured Julian Merryweather

Dan Szymborski: of the healthy guys, ZiPS like Leiter the best

Cards fan: This is what VEB thinks of your article.
think his projection system put far too much emphasis on the surface level results over the first 6 weeks of the minor league season, when the common-sense (and analytical) approach for decades has been to discount those early season surface level results due to the amount of players playing at a level higher than they ever have before. In short, I think his article about the future of the Cardinals, based almost entirely on early season slumps in the minors, was a poorly constructed article with a poorly researched conclusion. So, yes, he fell into the overly emotional and reactionary bucket with that one.

Dan Szymborski: They’re free to think that

Dan Szymborski: BUT, the effect is made up bullshit

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked explicitly at six weeks, but the first month of a player at a new level is actually NOT lower than expected

Colt Keith Hopium: Why does Colton Cowser have negative defensive projections across the board? He’s been the most valuable defensive OF in the league so far (by OAA)

Dan Szymborski: Well, because it’s driven by him being like a +23 run OF

Dan Szymborski: on a seasonal basis

Dan Szymborski: and projections aren’t going to believe that

Dan Szymborski: if he’s merely good, then the positional adjustments take more of it back

jj: re:Jo Adell article and the like, I’m trying to get more of a feel for what changes really stick.  There is always talk about certain things being more sticky with smaller samples (swing rate, etc) but I’m not sure how these really work on an individual player who has a history and now seems to have changed something for a month.

Yet Another Dan: How would you rank the following Dans in order of greatness? Aykroyd, Castellaneta, Fogelberg

Dan Szymborski: asking a dan to rank dans is cruel

Cat Latos: I enjoy your chats but I’m really here to hear about your cats

Dan Szymborski: They’re not doing a damn thing at the moment

Steve O: Do you think the third wild card was a mistake? There’s like 4 good teams in the entire NL. Mediocrity is enough to make it to the playoffs and probably was a reason why several teams didn’t do much this offseason. Imagine when they expand again? It’s going to be even uglier.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I think the third wild card was a mistake

Colt Keith Hopium: For a bat-first prospect, Colt Keith really isn’t doing much hitting (even his zStats are pretty awful). Is this another casualty of the jump from minors to majors being so relatively large, did we miss something in the scouting process, or is he just going to take some time to become that 130 wRC+ guy?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t necessarily think there’s any deeper meaning behind it

Dan Szymborski: something an apple just tastes mealy

Guest: I love your proj disk and all pthermaterial but why so many Def proj. Positions left off proj disk?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I haven’t really looked into it. Every one with 3 games at a position should have gotten a rating there

Houzer: Would Baltimore ever entertain moving Holiday in a deal that featured Skubal?

Dan Szymborski: I guess it’s POSSIBLE, but it’s such a gamble that I think everyone would be scared

Guest: what are you most listened-to Mahler and Beethoven symphonies

Dan Szymborski: Mahler – 1, 5, 6, 9

Dan Szymborski: Beethoven – 3, 7, 9

Dan Szymborski: (I can tell that without looking)

Yo Yo Mama: Haydn over Mozart – wow, hot take

Dan Szymborski: I’m only reporting what I’ve listened to

Dan Szymborski: For whatever reason, I turn more to Haydn than Mozart when I actually pick what I want to listen to

Eli: Does ZIPS see any hope for a Rizzo renaissance?

Dan Szymborski: Not much

Zach: Corbin Burnes is still very effective, but do you worry about giving him a long-term deal, given his strikeout rate has declined so much over the past 3 years

Dan Szymborski: Mildly so

Dan Szymborski: but there are usually only a handful of really good pitchers available in FA every year

Dan Szymborski: YOu can’t go to the pitcher store and ask if they have Corbin Burnes in better strikeouts

Why not Zoidberg?: I’d totally uh…game… that 1-3 with a single every game thing. I’m not putting that dude in unless it’s late innings and we’re trailing. Then his magic properties ensure we claw back enough of a lead we go to extras so he could get his ABs.

Morbo: “YOu can’t go to the pitcher store and ask if they have Corbin Burnes in better strikeouts” not unless you’re the Brewers anyway

Guest: Well diamond sports messed  things up…you should look at the defensive portion…they butchered  your product t…ex…westbutgh not rated at 2b?  There are several others

Dan Szymborski: Hmmm, I don’t seem to have Westburg at 2B on the submitted spreadsheet, which is odd

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to go through it and see if there’s something structural there

Dan Szymborski: Usually, they ask me if something looks weird and nobody had done so

Pat: Dan IS a great name for memes/GIF’s- “Laces out, DAN!”,  I won’t be ignored, DAN” (Fatal Attraction), “Damn Daniel”!!

Ryan: Mariners trade Colt Emerson, Tyler Locklear and Logan Evans for Luis Robert.  Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little spicy for Robert given injury history

MATT DAMON: MATT. DAMON…. is weary of this chaotic world, but ever-grateful for you, and the other FG writers for continuing your writing and contributions.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out – gotta get the pitcher zStats submitted