The Yankees offense has been on fire lately, specifically their OF. The numbers are astounding in terms of stats like Barrel %, avg EV, max EV, babip, HR/FB, and the countable stats like HRs, RBI/R are also adding up. It would be misleading to try to send you in another direction tonight and I am sure Soto and Judge will garner a lot of ownership. It is something to at least think about as we look into this 10 game slate on DraftKings beginning at 7:20 EST.
On slates like this with a clear top option I like to think about teams that could compete with the Yankees even if the Yankees succeed. With that mindset, I am looking at both CLE and COL tonight as good options. They get to play at Coors field and both starting pitchers have real warts that make them attackable. Triston McKenzie is walking too many people and his SIERA (projected ERA) is nearly 2 runs more than his actual ERA. Coors Field seems like the perfect place for his ERA to start correcting towards his projected one. On the other side we have COL pitching which is not good.
TOR is in a good spot vs. Mike Clevinger. TOR bats have been heating up lately and Guaranteed Rate Field is a good place for HRs. ATL has a nice Vegas total and they are facing a WAS pitching staff that is not going to shut down a good hitting team. The weather in Atlanta contributes to the overall hitting environment tonight. Besides some mini stacks of players who have been unlucky lately or one offs of the studs on heaters, I won’t be deviating much from these teams.
If you check out my Twitter account I will have a color coded table of tonight’s starting pitchers and relevant stats I use to guide my decisions.
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Freddy Peralta, SP: $10,500 – Peralta has a significant difference (as do most pitchers) in his stats at home vs. away. His biggest struggle is control and he is obviously more comfy at home. He has the most implied Ks tonight and on top of that, CHC has been the worst offense over the last 14 days. He needs to watch out for Ian Happ, but that’s about it.
Kevin Gausman, SP: $8,500 – Gausman just pitched a gem at home vs. Detroit and his .367 babip for the year should get some help facing a CHW lineup that consistently ranks towards the bottom of MLB. Gausman’s K rate isn’t as good as in year’s past, but the price reflects that.
Yainer Diaz, C: $3,700 – He makes my list of unlucky players who are currently hitting the ball extremely well. He has the barrels with a good mix of GB/FB and good plate discipline, but nothing to show for it. I like to bet on players like this going forward.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B: $3,000 – His 30% K rate will hopefully be less of a factor while playing in COL and he may finally see his power (good barrel rate recently with no HRs to show) pay off in a HR. At least you have a cheap option in COL.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $3,800 – Torres is 3rd on his team in avg. EV over the last 14 days. This is remarkable because the Yankees OF has been absolutely tearing the cover off of the ball and are all priced way up. Torres gets one of the best matchups of the day and he is finally hitting his stride with hard hit data that backs up his recent surge.
Ryan McMahon, 3B: $4,800 – Is there a 3B swinging the bat better than McMahon right now? Even if there is, they are not playing in Coors and facing Triston McKenzie whose ERA leads his SIERA (SIERA projects ERA based on other stats) by almost 2 runs.
Gabriel Arias, SS: $3,800 – Arias is another cheap play for Coors Field and you can also play him at 3B if you want to. On top of that, he has been swinging the bat well, but has little show for his barrels. If Coors goes off, I want Arias in my stack.
Yankees, OF: $4,200 – 6,300 – The Yankees OF is currently playing off the charts in terms of barrel % and actual MLB stats. There are four possibilities here and all are worth the price they will cost; Verdugo, Stanton, Judge, Soto. Griffin Canning can not be having an easy time looking forward to tonight and Yankees stacks look promising.
Leody Taveras, OF: $3,300 – I will not be playing Rangers stacks tonight, but Leody Taveras pairs well with a Corey Seager mini stack. Taveras has quietly moved up to 5th in the order and has been reducing his Ks while hitting the ball hard and in the air. He’s a good hitter with speed and he plays in a great lineup. The price is right!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is nothing to note about tonight’s games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Most of the lines are in line with my analysis except for the Atlanta Braves. They have one of the highest implied team totals despite losing Acuna and playing some uninspiring baseball lately. Looking deeper, it’s not only the starting pitcher they face who is subpar, the entire WAS bullpen has been performing at a bottom 5 level recently. I didn’t see ATL as a good offensive spot initially, but their Vegas total helps me to get on board the ATL bats tonight.
