Good DFS lineups are a combination of floor and upside. A good pitcher, for example, can usually give you a nice floor score whether they get hit around or not because they also get strikeouts or nearly always pitch deep into games. A good team stack will give a high floor, but an individual player cannot. We have all probably seen a box score where everyone scores big except for our player who went 0-5. Upside, though, is misidentified in DFS. What is upside? Who has more?
Let’s take a look at a couple options for tonight’s slate. We can all agree that Chris Sale has an impeccable floor score and is likely the highest projected pitcher on a number of projection systems tonight, but does Chris Sale have upside? He has the highest strikeout rate on the slate (32%) and his opponent, Arizona, Ks at an average rate vs. lefties. He has scored above 30 DK points several times, but does he have upside? When looking at his price of $10,400 you could argue that he does not, but I’m looking elsewhere. His average DK score of 25 points would put you in contention to win a tourney depending on number of entries, but that’s more a topic of floor scoring. His high score of 35 is good, but nowhere near the 47 points put up by Ronel Blanco in his debut. You have to consider that 10 points were added for the complete game shutout no hitter, though. Bailey Ober recently topped Sale with a 40 pointer and even Jake Irvin, Cal Quantril, and Nick Lodolo have posted scores better than 35. Does Chris Sale have the ceiling tonight that would make him a good SP to roster? My answer is no because I think I can find less expensive pitchers that allow me to target a ceiling score on tonight’s slate that is in line with what Sale will likely do, 22-30 points. My pitcher will not do this nearly as often as Chris Sale, but that’s the difference between floor and ceiling.
What are some other ceiling plays that we should be looking for when trying to take down a top heavy tournament tonight? Nick Lodolo has a great projected K rate vs. COL tonight. He is not consistent (floor concern) but his ceiling is great at only $8,800. This is a matchup that other mediocre pitchers have exploited before. When you look at the high scores of the pitchers on tonight’s slate, many have come against the White Sox. Bailey Ober is a ceiling play tonight as well. Check out My Twitter later today for the complete chart of today’s SPs/OPP and relevant stats and come up with some of your own ceiling plays.
As for the hitters, BOS is facing an extreme FB pitcher in a hitter friendly ballpark with some warm temps and the wind blowing out. They will face Joey Estes who pitched a complete game in OCo, which is a far friendlier pitchers park than Fenway will be. Talk about ceiling! HOU, TEX, MIL and SEA all have matchups that can be exploited and they have players who can help produce ceiling type scores. Stacking players from the same team (3, 4, or 5) is a ceiling type move and should always be your prime motive when filling out rosters that want to compete for first place.
Check out some of the one-offs below. Any one-off on a high ceiling team can be made into a stack.
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Nick Lodolo, SP: $8,800 – I hope this game plays in full because Lodolo is in a great spot to produce a ceiling type game. He is not the most consistent pitcher and often carries a high ball rate, but he also has exploited favorable matchups before and 30+ points at this price is a good way to move to the top of the leaderboards.
Bailey Ober, SP: $8,700 – I am really hoping it doesn’t rain here in Chicago tonight since I’d love to take my 3 year old to the park, but also because Ober is in good form and gets a fantastic matchup. He pitched through rain last time out vs. DET and he was great. He is right up there with Chris Sale tonight at a portion of the cost. If the game gets rained out, look to Yusei Kikuchi in a pitcher friendly park or Blake Snell.
Cal Raleigh, C: $4,400 – I am unsure what will happen when a low sw K pitcher meets a team with high K rates, but I’m going to bet on the more veteran players to figure out how to barrel up Adam Mazur tonight. Mazur has been good at limiting barrels, but SEA has the highest barrel rate of any team over the past 30 days. There are plenty of good Cs to roster tonight.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B: $3,700 – Lowe is better as a part of a stack, but he’s a really good hitter who should contribute in the R/RBI department tonight.
Zack Gelof, 2B: $3,200 – You should not make a habit of rostering players with a 35% K rate, but Gelof will give you a lot of production when he is hitting the ball. His speed/power combo has helped win me money before. Just realize his floor is 0.
Rafael Devers, 3B: $6,200 – If you have not seen the pitch that Devers hit for a HR in the 9th inning on Sunday night, check it out. He is as hot as any player and he knows it. This is a good matchup for Devers and I want to pay up to roster him.
Corey Seager, SS: $5,000 – It will be hard to pay up for all these bats, so Seager represents a top tier play at a lower cost. He is really in a nice hitting groove and the LAA pitchers should not pose a problem for him. Like Devers, Seager is swinging with a purpose these days.
Wyatt Langford, OF: $3,900 – The development of a young player is rarely linear. Langford’s statcast numbers do not scream “rest of season breakout” but he is showing signs of his upside and it looks like that will come together for significant stretches, maybe even a full series. Either way, his price is right to occupy the #5 spot in the lineup against a beatable pitcher on a team that is starting to finally heat up.
James Wood, OF: $4,200 – A rookie call up that gets inserted into the middle of the lineup and is already dominating the top of statcast leaderboards is in the discussion for ceiling type plays. Jose Quintana is a wiley veteran, but MLB is becoming a young man’s game and Wood has all the tools to run up the score tonight in the Big Apple with the wind blowing out.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Oh Man! Trying to reason with hurricane season is not something I or Jimmy Buffet do, but we can be disappointed. It looks like rain might affect some good spots tonight including the MIN-CWS game. We will likely lose the KC-STL game, which I wasn’t very keen on anyways. COL-CIN may see some rain, but hopefully, we still get a full game in. Any PPDs will reduce the size of the slate, making differentiation even more important as a pathway to first place.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The projection for Boston is going to make them one of the highest owned teams on tonight’s slate. Remember, when games start to get PPD that differentiation will be even more important. Still, stacks can provide good ceiling plays. I am surprised by Vegas’ commitment to a good Blake Snell and I would bet that Kikuchi is as good as Snell tonight. I also appreciate Vegas giving TEX a decent projection, but I think they are ripe to take off as an offense and their 4.9 projected run total is still too low.
