I audibly gasped when I opened up the DraftKings app tonight to start prepping for Tuesday’s slate. We don’t see too many million dollar contests for MLB DFS, but Tuesday’s 12 game slate will mark one of the only such contests this year. My wife pleaded with me not to drop the 60k max entry fee (one entry is 3k) to which I responded that I am in no way that high of a roller. Buying even a single entry into the contest is such a long shot that I don’t even want to think about it. Still, it marks a resurgence in MLB DFS and I am excited about that.
There’s no doubt that the 12 games is a reason for the big contest. Ownership rarely settles on any plays and you can find your angle irrespective of congregated ownership for the most part. A broad look at the slate shows many options for how lineups can be put together. There are desirable pitchers as low as 8k and rosterable choices in the 6k range. I can identify 4 very attractive offenses and 4 more options that could explode for a big game if things fall right. I am mostly bypassing the powerful Yankees lineup and the scorching NYM. I don’t see the point in attacking Kyle Hendricks although I know many who will.
Therefore on a slate like this, it’s important to stick to the best plays. Over time, with ownership not really being a factor, those best plays will win tournaments more often than not. You must build a lineup stacked with 4-5 players from one team and preferably stack one other team’s 3-4 players. The best plays are the good hitting teams facing the high BB, low K pitchers. Many of those teams sport lineups where every player is rosterable. Sometimes it’s those low owned 6-9 hitters that win tourneys. Look at LAD and HOU as well as CHC. Check out TEX, MIL, OAK, and WAS, but realize that a non slugging team (CHC, WAS) will require the opposing pitcher and bullpen to really self-destruct. Let my picks below guide you, but be fearless knowing there will be multiple players not mentioned below that will help to win a tourney.
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Hunter Brown, SP: $8,000 – The combination of matchup, skills, and price come together nicely today for Brown. He is stepping into his rest of season projections which are far better than his current 4.72 ERA and 4-5 record. His projected K/BB for today is bettered by his opponent, COL, which should allow him to continue the pitch mix changes over his past two games.
Hunter Greene, SP: $8,600 – Following the data leads us to another nice play for today’s slate. Greene has great tools as a pitcher, but his walk rate is concerning and limits his upside. His opponent has only walked 6% of the time over the past 30 days, which should help Greene replicate his last start when he struck out 9 and walked 0 against these same Pirates.
Yainer Diaz, C: $4,100 – I’ve rolled with Diaz a lot this year and it’s mostly just been okay. His power is down a bit as a result of his barrel rate decreasing, but his K%, EV, and max EV are all very similar to Will Smith who costs about 1k more. Diaz hits in the middle of the lineup and should have a great opportunity tonight vs. COLs pitching.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $5,800 – Freeman is a bit pricey, but he’s riding a pretty good hot streak this month and the matchup is great vs. a White Sox team that struggles with pitching. The Dodgers are a great team to stack tonight and I want to make sure to get those big bats into my stacks.
Zack Gelof, 2B: $3,100 – He is an awesome player when he hits the ball, but a 30% K rate also helps keep his price down and Gelof non-rostered in DFS contests. His 5 HRs and 4 SBs in his last 25 games matchup with any 2B and he is in a good matchup vs. a SP who has been running a bit lucky getting outs on batted balls this year.
Joey Ortiz, 3B: $4,000 – Let Ortiz supply the K/BB rates tonight and the strong bat to ball skills in the zone and let Andrew Heaney supply the fly ball rates and slightly elevated HR/FBs. Ortiz led off the last time MIL faced a lefty. Put it together and you have a decent chance at a great game.
Willy Adames, SS: $4,700 – Rinse and repeat, but Adames has more power. The hope is that together MIL can force Heaney towards his projected BB% which is higher than what he’s been doing so far. Eventually, the Brewers can identify the pitches they want to swing at exploiting the HR tendencies of Heaney.
Chas McCormick, OF: $3,100 – Here we have another high K guy facing a pitcher that doesn’t strike many people out. His numbers are better vs. lefties and he has been barrelling balls up pretty good when put in these positions. McCormick is one of those guys who bats in the lower third of a lineup that can help you win a tourney tonight.
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $6,500 – Sometimes it’s just this easy. I am putting a priority on having a big bat or two in my lineups tonight and Ohtani is my first choice. Flexen won’t know what hit him.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The game being played in Cincinnati has some potential for rain that could put Hunter Greene’s start in jeopardy. I certainly hope they can figure out a way to play. The White Sox and Cardinals also may have rain interrupt play.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The heat in different parts of the US will push up some of the O/Us and we see that in Kansas City and Cincinnati. As a bettor I would be more interested in attacking lines based on matchups since exploiting a matchup is what I know and can really help an offense explode or a pitcher excel. As such I would bet on the Brewers and the Astros and take a chance on the Oakland A’s scoring some runs in Anaheim.
Vegas could sway me towards playing a mini stack of Royals tonight, but I’m not gonna bet on either team taking advantage of that nice hitting weather.
