DFS: The Wind Games Beneath My Orioles

I was out manning the BBQ on a Saturday night while the chicken thighs sizzled and I started thinking about my lineup that I had been building for the $555 Walk Off HR. Once a month or so I like to play a single bullet in a higher stakes contest to sharpen my thinking. It is enough to change things up and help me hone in on the basics: play for first and play fearless while recognizing my biases. I managed to do that and came to some roster decisions that did not immediately jump out to me, but made a lot of sense. Check out my Twitter @MatthewPetrich1 to see just how much cents it made.

The point of the story is that DFS is less about the few picks someone can share than it is about the variance in baseball that can turn 5 man stacks into a “had to have it” picks. DFS is about exploiting the low probability of picking out individual plays that can top a team stack. Since finding success at DFS means taking down big paydays every so often rather than cashing somewhat often, it is far more profitable to search for the stacks that logically, according to your analysis, can catapult you up the leaderboards. 15-20 points from Aaron Judge or Juan Soto is nice, but if you can beat that score and save 3k, you can beat a lot of teams in the standings.

Tuesday gives us a manageable 8 game slate on DK that begins at 7:05 EST. I always start my analysis by studying the following information (it’ll be color coded on Twitter/X):

Here’s what stands out to me. As per usual, NYY and HOU are good teams to choose players from. LAD are always in play even though they have not been as hot recently and they face a good pitcher.  Finally, BAL gets an exploitable matchup against Lance Lynn and they have been pretty consistent this season. No one needs to identify those three teams as good targets and their players are likely pretty expensive. 

There are a few less heralded stacks that stand out too. STL is on a mini tear recently and even though they face a tough name in Kyle Bradish, there are some signs that point to this as a good matchup. Bradish himself has been throwing close to 40% balls in his return from injury. The BAL bullpen has been the worst in baseball over the last 14 days.

I never know what to expect from Christian Javier and he gets a LAA team that is cheap and will be running a lot. There is also power throughout the lineup. OAK has quietly been an average team offensively and they get to face Cal Quantrill and the bad COL bullpen. Finally, ATL is just starting to show some signs of life again and Javier Assad, while good, is going to have a start where his ERA corrects a bit.

Remember to find an angle that you think can win a tournament and exploit it. Be fearless and reap the rewards!

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Yusei Kikuchi, SP: $9,300 – The 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP look very ace-like, but Kikuchi is not quite at that level unless he is facing the White Sox in his home ballpark. There should at least be plenty of Ks.

Clarke Schmidt, SP: $8,400 – Speaking of Ks, this matchup sets up very well for Schmidt to rack them up again. He had a career high of 8 in his last start and should be looking to repeat that vs the Mariners.

Cal Raleigh, C: $4,300 – The 30% K rate warns me to back off, but you do have to play fearless and Raleigh has a great hard hit rate and can easily get a hold of one to the short porch, which he doesn’t really need.

Spencer Torkelson, 1B: $4,100 – Touts have been waiting for Tork to turn things around all year and it’s finally happened. 3 of his 5 barrels on the year have come in his last 7 games along with plenty of elevated hard hits. Buy now before the price goes up.

Jordan Westburg, 2B: $4,900 – It’s tough to find a 2B that hits well and hits with power. Westburg looks like both and recently he has been putting some good hits on the ball. 

Ryan McMahon, 3B: $4,700 – This sounds crazy to roster McMahon at the top of his price range and playing in a clear pitchers park. His statcast data recently is off the charts for a 3B on this slate. He is worth spending up on to be contrarian and hope for a good game against a questionable pitching staff.

Gunnar Henderson, SS: $5,900 – He hits so many barrels and has such good command of the strike zone that all the GBs don’t really matter too much as long as his speed can play. I am including him in my BAL stacks.

Colton Cowser, OF: $4,400 – Over his last 14 days, Cowser has walked more than he struck out and he is hitting the ball hard in the air. I like him a lot at this price.

Anthony Santander, OF: $4,700 – Santander has cut his K rate recently which is a good sign that he will be able to put his power into play more. He can really get going over brief periods of time.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

There are two games that look to be affected by the wind today. One is at Wrigley with winds blowing out to left at 25 mph and the other is in KC with wind out to right at 10-15 mph. Both are significant, but the Wrigley winds could be a slate changer. The game in STL looks like it will be affected by rain, which is too bad considering the positive vibes I have felt towards the Orioles offense.

Doing Lines In Vegas

Most of the Vegas run totals for today are as expected, but I do think that the NYY expected run total of 4.3 is a little low. Otherwise, Vegas is telling us to roster HOU, LAD, BAL, and ATL. The weather games between DET-KC and ATL-CHC have high O/Us as well. Wrigley weather games often attract some high ownership.