Can we officially do away with the notion that the HR Derby negatively affects its participants for the 2nd half? Teoscar went yard last night and Bobby Witt almost hit a cycle amongst his near perfect start to the 2nd half. The narrative does exist, however, that HR derby participants had to change their swing so much to hit HRs that they become lost for at least a time. That, my friends, is how bias works. It creeps into your DFS play and affects your logical and reasoned decision making.
Here’s another example of how bias might affect our 11 game slate tonight. We have four pitchers at the top of the price range tonight and they will likely have 100% ownership between them, but which one has the best skills/matchup; Chris Sale, Logan Gilbert, Garrett Crochet, or Zack Wheeler. Some of us may be biased where we drafted the SP for season long leagues and choose Wheeler. Chris Sale and Logan Gilbert have been good over multiple seasons. Garret Crochet however, has the lowest rest of season ERA projection and the highest K rate to date. Facing the former world champion Texas Rangers in their home stadium, he will be overlooked even though his matchup and skills are slightly better. The 4 pitchers really do stand out tonight, and I would suggest trying to roster 2 together.
Offensive spots are all congregated around the same Vegas totals which project good, but not great scoring environments. The best pitcher to target on the slate is Ty Blach who faces BOS in Coors. He won’t pitch long if he struggles, but he may not completely get shelled given his career .300 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters. BOS has three lefties that play every day in the top half of their lineups and they are not particularly good at facing same handed pitching.
KC and ARI are my other favorite stacks, but the fact Vegas is projecting that game with the highest O/U (ownership will increase due to the recency bias of KCs success vs CWS pitching) worries me about ownership congregating for a slate where if so it’s a negative EV (expected value) play. What to do? Well, first of all, try to recognize the bias inherent in this slate that will lead people to high priced pitching and/or ARI/KC/BOS stacks. Try to find something you like outside of that or be different if building lineups from within.
One matchup I may try to exploit is the New York rivalry. Luis Gil has been great, but he has his warts including BBs and a lot of FBs given up. Among his great games and great yearly stats he has 4 games (20%) that gave the opposing team some pretty healthy DFS stats. The scary part is that if he is on his game, NYM stacks are going to kill your lineup. If he pitches poorly like he has in 20% of his games, the NYM have the ability to post a really good score and what gets me excited is that the Mets have the best wRC+ over the last 30 games.
Find another angle that you can support, something you think could produce a first place lineup if all goes well, try to recognize if there’s any bias in your decision, and play it. The worst thing that can happen is you lose, and most good DFS players roster losing lineups as well on a regular basis. Check out My Twitter later today for a chart (abbreviated/succinct for today) of some relevant stats for today’s matchups. Check the picks section below for some one off plays or additions to stacks.
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Garrett Crochet, SP: $9,800 – Crochet has a 35% K rate on the season which he has maintained through all his starts and he rarely struggles with walks. I like Crochet because he has a great chance to put up the best pitching score on the slate and people will be worried about his pitch count (he was obviously rested before the All Star break) or the low likelihood of a win.
Logan Gilbert, SP: $10,000 – Gilbert is the yin to Crochet’s yang, tried and true especially at home. Pitchers have continuously feasted in terms of K rate in Seattle’s stadium and Logan Gilbert really doesn’t need any more advantages, but if I’m rostering him I’ll take it.
Gabriel Moreno, C: $3,600 – There are a lot of good Cs right now, and Moreno is one of those emerging as a solid producer. This is likely why ARI has moved him up in the lineup. Low K%, high BB%, 2nd best EV among Cs in the last 30 days and 6th best barrel rate. That’s a lot of stats to say, yes please at this price.
Michael Toglia, 1B: $4,100 – Pure power is a nice thing to have and a risky bet in DFS, but if it pays off you will catapult up the leaderboards. Toglia has power and sneakily has reduced his K rate every month of the season. Criswell is another extreme FB pitcher on this slate, so let’s see if Toglia can connect with his 22% barrel rate and 94 EV on some fly balls.
Jeff McNeil, 2B: $3,300 – McNeil has really turned the tides on those who were writing him off. All he had to do was start hitting the ball hard again and he did that. The matchup could be tough if Gil is on his game, but if not, look for McNeil to put some good swings on the ball. He is pulling close to 50% of his balls and Gil is a solid FB pitcher. In Yankee stadium that usually means good things.
Vlad Guerrero Jr., 3B: $4,800 – Vlad has a lot of positives going for him today in terms of how hard and how often he is hitting the ball. His achilles heel has always been GBs, but Tyler Alexander is an extreme FB pitcher so hopefully that helps our first base friend hit one out.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $6,400 – I am not trying to fade the hottest hitter in baseball in a great matchup. I would look at other SS in a stack or if I can’t afford it, but Witt is awesome right now.
6-9th hitters from your stack, OF: $2,000 – 4,000 You are likely going to need to save some salary today and this is a place you can do it. I am not going to provide picks because that creates a bias. Play some of the low in the order guys from your stack (at least 2) and see what goodness can happen.
Brenton Doyle, OF: $4,900 – When he is playing this well and in Coors, it’s probably wise to consider Doyle up to about 5k. He has power and speed and the matchup is not difficult.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No real issues to look forward to and there are no great hitting spots weather wise, so a pretty tame night for this section.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The O/U for the ARI/KC game stands out as the highest on the day outside of Coors, but what really influences me about today’s slate are the number of above average offensive environments. This is directly related to the mediocre pitchers on today’s slate and the offenses facing them. No need to pay attention to Vegas since it’s all contained in the article.
