Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat- 10/18

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from beautiful Tempe where the temps have finally dipped after something like 20 days in a row of record highs.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the two east valley Fall League games today and want to put the bow on another dispatch of notes so I’ll likely keep this chat tight to the top of the hour.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…

Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all your prospects content. Wondering when you’ll have any updates on the upcoming international signing periods. Particularly interested in any Red Sox related intel. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I’ve got a bunch of big $ names and team for the next couple of years in my notes and I’ll be building out the $1mil+ version of The Board for publication in the next few weeks…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to spread out medium sized bonuses across their entire class rather than spend $2mil+ on any one guy and I imagine that’s the case again

Victoria: There has been talk of the Cubs trading from their loaded top of the system. People usually suggest Triantos or Alcántara, but what if they decided Mo Baller wasn’t going to make it as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Then yeah, his value in the eyes of team who think he can catch would be way higher than it would be to the Cubs in that scenario and it’d more make sense to move him

Matt Thompson: Bummed I’m not making it out to the AFL this year and I’ll be living vicariously through all the videos I watch via Twitter. With the quality of pitching out here being the worst it has been in years, how does that effect  your overall quality of looks you’re getting? Especially on players you haven’t had pass through Arizona yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey Matty, sorry I won’t be seeing you at FPAZ then. Yeah, the hitting environment here is usually nutty (due to pitcher quality and altitude, etc.) and that’s the case again this year as we watch at least one guy come in and walk/hit a bunch of dudes and totally alter the vibe and give-a-frick quotient of the game we’re all watching…

Eric A Longenhagen: The “look” (stuff like athleticism, bat speed, any visual detail) and the “performance” (everyone’s stats for the six week league) are still easy enough to separate to get something out of the league even though you have to contextualize it

Roman: Padres fans are really excited for Salas and De Vries. Even if you assume they’ll be as good as Merrill at 20, that puts their ETA at 2027. What do you think is a realistic expectation?

Eric A Longenhagen: ’28-’29 somewhere in there

Eric A Longenhagen: that’ just their stock 40-man timeline, which I think is a fit for both guys. Maybe De Vries catches up by a year jsut because playing MIF is not as nuanced and difficult as catching.

Reuben: Any smoke on expansion with Oakland and Tampa moving?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they’ll need to vacate the Trop for an entire season then it’d be cool/logical for the Rays to pilot expansion in Charlotte or Nashville kinda like the Hornets did in OKC after Katrina.

Eric A Longenhagen: If they’re only gonna have to stay out of the Trop until mid-’25 or so then I bet they play at a spring facility, even if it’s the Braves new spot in North Port or something like that rather than their own in Port Charlotte

Eric A Longenhagen: From what I’ve heard there is still a lot of assessment of the Trop’s condition to do before any avenues are actually discussed.

The Hoffer: Curious if you saw Eriq Swan last night. Lot of interesting traits there but can he stick as a starter/what’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did Mesa/Scottsdale last night, haven’t run into Swan yet.

Jon: Kristian Campbell has flown up prospect boards, and there are reportedly people in the Sox FO who think he is the best prospect in the system.  What are your thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s in the top 4 for sure and I spoke to a non-Sox person yesterday who thinks you can make a coherent argument for KC over both Anthony and Marcelo. Talked to someone who tried to sooth my apprehension about Campbell’s swing by putting the Hunter Pence comp on him

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is it the heat or the altitude at the AFL that’s leading to the balls flying >110 mph? Either way, how do you as a prospects writer chip off EV or else adjust power grades when the environment is nutty like in the PCL?

Eric A Longenhagen: For sure. I watched Saggese barely hit a ball (95 mph exit) that snuck out to the opposite field. The wind, pressure, everything is currently shifting here as our seasons finally change. There are dudes with huge juice here, though. If I can isolate exit velos from AFL and compare them to everyone’s regular season data I wonder if there will be a consistent delta across the sample

O’Malley: WHat does Lawlar’s playing time look like next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvioualy let’s watch to see what they do with Geno’s club option because if they don’t pick it up then Lawlar’s gonna be in there almost immediately. I think he’s going to play a ton but I bet Perdomo opens the year as the starter…

Eric A Longenhagen: Any injury on their infield probably slides Geraldo to that spot and Lawlar into the lineup at SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: So let’s say, like 400 PA for Lawlar next year?

Catherine: Are Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana top 100 candidates going into this cycle? Early evidence of improvement on the part of Nationals pitching dev (and if so any wider evidence in the system?) or just two guys with great stuff who happened to put it together?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely candidates but not locks. Nats dev improvement would be something I’d feel more comfortable declaring once I’ve done that system and touched base on dozens of their guys.

Guest: do you have any insight on Briceno or Liranzo’s long term projections once they get to Detroit?  Do you think either of them stick behind the plate?  If not, is the batted ball profile of either of them strong enough to justify a 1B or DH spot at the next level?   Just curious to the type of upside you think either may or may not possess

Eric A Longenhagen: Liranzo has looked rough back there so far this Fall but that’s almost always the case here. You’re gassed and catching a whole new staff of guys. I think both Briceno and Liranzo have the physical characteristics of long-term catchers (size and durability are so important) who, over time, show they can weather the beating catchers take and still produce. I feel better about Liranzo profiling at 1B/DH because it’s such nutty switch-hitting power. Briceno’s power surge here (he hit more homers in one game than he had all season) is more a product of the environment, he only really smoked one of those homers.

Matt: Since you live in the area, curious if you have you noticed if they’ve made any progress on renovations at Tempe Diablo Stadium? (Pitching/hitting labs, new clubhouse)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve only been in the stadium itself lately and not down by the facility that sits in the middle of the backfields

Mike R.: It feels like not a single Yankee prospect other than Agustin Ramirez lived up to expectations this year. Hate to be greedy considering the major league success, but went went wrong in our farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’d say I think Lombard’s season was a success but otherwise I see what you mean..

Eric A Longenhagen: I was not on Everson Pereira so his season doesn’t really surprise me. The fact that so many of the young pitchers barely played (Chalniel Arias, Henry Lalane) was not great. So many of the high-upside components of the system are in Complex/A ball.

Ely: How concerned should we be about Jun-Seok Shim? Even in tiny AFL sample, his stuff doesn’t look right.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked pretty awful the day I saw him. Sitting 90-91, super short and unathletic stride, breaking ball had okay depth but was easy to spot out of his hand.

Phil: Have you seen Danny Kirwin? He has a great story and I’d love him to make it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, funky approach angle and big time sweeper. Has a shot to make it.

Jim: What do you see Walcott doing next year, both in performance as well as position?

Eric A Longenhagen: Might be the best prospect in baseball by the end of the year

Jason N: A Padres beat writer recently made the claim that internally, the team increasingly views DeVries as a better prospect than Salas.  You coming around to that opinion, too?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna see how Leo trends on defense. If he’s a 2B then nah, gimme the catcher. I think it’s fine to be more confident that Leo will actually hit than Ethan.

Uncle Spike: How many times do you need to see a prospect before you are comfortable putting a grade on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Without the aid of data and video at all? Probably like 4 or 5 games with at least one BP and infield before I get a look at every tool.

Guest: Hey Eric, do you have any updated thoughts on Alex Freeland since you last wrote him up before the season? Had a big year except he struggled at AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still a lot of swing and miss happening there, big time arm might allow him to play SS despite lacking typical range. Think he should be higher than I had him on last year’s Dodger’s list but I don’t necessarily think he’s a top 100 guy or anything.

Lord Thunder: Tommy Troy. A big game last night, but really struggled before that, including the regular season. Is he still a top 100 guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of those guys who I’ll take all 6 weeks to eval before feeling like I have to make a call. Bat may simply not be in the hitting zone for very long causing lots of K’s, might be better suited as an impact utility type.

Kate: Did 2024 raise any concerns for you with Drew Gilbert (other than durability)?  Or was this just a year lost to injury and he’s still the same guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head is flying out a ton, he’s not tracking the ball like I want to see from a guy who was projected to make a lot of contact. Evaluating his CF defense on tape will be a determining factor, I’ve seen him playing a corner in games out here so far.

Kate: Does Drake Baldwin have the athleticism to play any non-catcher positions to get his bat in the MLB lineup?  Heard they might have been considering him in the outfield?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s built like a catcher, I think he and Harry Ford are offseason trade candidates.

doughboy: The Tigers have done a great job of late developing starting pitching arms. Is Rayner Castillo next in line? Thoughts on his projectability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not super on him off one look here. Below avg athlete, t95, sitting 93, good slider. fringe 40 man RP for me

Michael: First time going to Arizona fall league any advice? Which parks should I prioritize?

Eric A Longenhagen: Check the schedule during your dates here and stay somewhere you can max out games but minimize travel. look at the days with potential double ups and eat somewhere fun in between. check ASU’s fall schedule and work in one of their scrimmages if you can. I’d rather stay East Valley than West in a vacuum.

Uncle Spike: When you are scouting AFL games, are you going in with a handful of guys you are watching closely or are you evaluating everyone on the field?

Eric A Longenhagen: Todos del peloteros.

Lord Thunder: One current minor leaguer who’s a slam dunk — or close to it — being a starting MLB SS. Who ya’ got?

Steve: Looks like you’ve been one of the higher guys on Spencer Jones. His statline had a nice last 6 weeks of the season – what’s your current opinion of him and do you think he can adjust to fix the swing and miss issues?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looked a mess just about all year but I’m still inclined to bet on long term talent and projection. He is going to have such rare lefty power that I’ll be comfortable with being the high guy on his this offseason. He’s a flawed player but I think he’ll eventually make a big power impact.

Pam: Zhyir Hope quickly ascending to be a top 50 prospect? 25? Patience, power…only 19…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s only 19 but his body is maxed so projecting on his physicality a ton doesn’t make sense. He’s also not a very good outfielder right now and I think his hit tool (or at least the evaluation of his hit tool) remains quite volatile. Having said that, the power/speed combo and his ability to produce power in a short mechanical distance is pretty substantial. He might be a top 100 guy this offseason based on his upside but I’m not gonna top 25 him or anything like that.

Doink: Thoughts on the improved power that Tre’ Morgan is apparently showing?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think I’m in

Eric A Longenhagen: feel better about him than I did about Manzardo after his AFL look

Andre Thee Giant: What are the odds that Nolan McLean sticks as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re okay, kinda in the situation Schwellenbach was where you wanna bet that he’ll improve once he specializes

Justin: What do you make of Jackson Merrill’s season, did anyone see this coming?

Eric A Longenhagen: but then i slid him entering ’24 thinking he’d end up playing LF. Nobody could have seen him playing a good CF having had zero reps there, ever.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol look at Druw and Amador up there, though jfc

EonADS: Parker Messick took big steps forward this season in Cleveland’s system. Dominated AA hitters completely and improved across the board, including inclining velocity, better command, and an increased ground-ball rate. Does he look like a 50 FV to you? Because he does to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not crazy

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Could you settle a bet for me – which of you/Tess/Travis covers the mid-Atlantic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess has taken a step back from the site, Travis lives in Kansas (and I bet he gets hired by a team this offseason) and he and I both cover everything. I head home to PA and drive up and down I-95 once a year to see Eastern, Int’l, Sally League stuff

Andre Thee Giant: You were the only analyst I read who said that Mark Vientos had improved enough defensively to be a credible third baseman. Congrats.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks? I mean, he’s not great over there.

Grandal Richuk: Are there any prospects right now where you’re willing to ignore the data you have on them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The model-driven NPC types who you have to talk the data-heavy analysts out of loving

Eddy: Omg, been waiting for a chat to finally ask you — where do you sit on Mick Abel nowadays? Future RP?

Eric A Longenhagen: looking more and more like that, i’ve got him toward the back of the 100 with all the other strong armed guys with zero feel

Eric A Longenhagen: Oop, we’re past 10. I’ve gotta split. Great questions again this week, including many I didn’t get to. Looking forward to hopping on with you all again next Friday. Go check out the FG Youtube channel for Fall League video. See you next friday