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Gold futures racked up another new record on Friday – the 34th time this year – and some analysts are saying recent market action suggests “a new upward leg for gold prices is underway,” sparked by monetary easing from major central banks and a tight U.S. presidential election race.
The CME FedWatch tool currently prices in a 55% chance of a 25-basis-point U.S. rate cut and a 45% chance of a 50-bps cut; low rates tends to support the price of gold, which bears no interest.
Gold could reach $3,000/oz by mid-2025, driven by U.S. interest rate cuts, strong demand from exchange traded funds and over-the-counter physical demand, Citi Research’s North America head of commodities Aakash Doshi said.
$3,000 gold would come into focus if coming data points to growth risks and weakness in the labor market, Zaner Metals vice president Peter A. Grant told Reuters, saying his firm would raise the chance of a 50-bp rate cut in November or December, which would in turn lift the tailwind for gold.
Analysts at Macquarie raised their gold price forecast this week, now looking for an average cyclical peak in next year’s Q1 of $2,600/oz, with potential for a spike towards $3,000.
Attaining $3,000 is possible, particularly in the event of political unrest following elections in the U.S., RJO Futures analyst Daniel Pavilonis said, according to Reuters.
Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for September delivery finished +1.2% on Friday to a record high settlement of $2,581.30/oz, while September silver (XAGUSD:CUR) +3.2% on Friday to $30.699/oz, the best close since July 16; for the week, gold climbed 3.5% and silver surged 10.4%.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)
Momentum ahead of the impending rate cut in the U.S. has been the short-term driver of gold prices, World Gold Council strategist Joe Cavatoni said this week.
Cavatoni thinks the impact of expected rate cuts “isn’t fully accounted for yet,” and likely will “fuel upward price pressure in the coming weeks and be seen in increased demand from investors over a longer time horizon.”
