Everybody digs the long ball. This week we are digging deep and looking for hitters that have left some power on the table in the first few months of the season. These are the players who, with one mighty swing, can change the course of a game. Between a myriad of statistics such as xHR, HR/FB%, Hard Hit rate, Barrels and more we are searching for those players that still have more in the tank for 2024. Any rookie can tell you that Aaron Judge has power, but did you know that Marcel Ozuna has been in the top 2% of the league in power metrics and also has the slowest home run trot in the majors. That is incredibly useless information, but now you have it and will not forget. That is the depths to which we are about to go. Without further ado let’s dive in to some powerful hitter profiles.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr. is on track for a 25-homer season, combining his power and speed to make a significant fantasy impact. He’s delivered exceptional draft day value, outperforming most first-round picks this year. Witt ranks in the top 5% for exit velocity, top 4% for barrel rate, and top 1% for expected slugging percentage (xSLG), showcasing his power skills that have resulted in eleven home runs this season. Despite these impressive metrics, he’s been somewhat unlucky in the power department, with an expected home run (xHR) total of 15.4. If Witt played all his games in hitter-friendly parks like Cincinnati or Milwaukee, he would already have 21 home runs. His spray chart reveals how close many of his well-hit balls have come to clearing the fence, indicating even greater long ball potential. This is certainly a case of buying high that I would fully support.
Austin Riley
Austin Riley appears searching for power amid a challenging season. After back-to-back seasons where he threatened 40 homers, Riley has experienced a dramatic decline, hitting only three home runs and sporting a disappointing .234 average. This performance has fallen far short of the expectations by a staggering degree. The Braves have moved Riley from the three spot to the two spot in the lineup, now that Ronald Acuña Jr. is no longer occupying the leadoff position which further dampen his RBI production. On the luck side of things, throughout his career, nearly 20% of Riley’s fly balls have gone for home runs. This season, however, that rate has dropped to just above 5%, an alarming decrease that suggests bad luck rather than a complete loss of skill. This stark contrast indicates that some positive regression could be on the horizon. While Riley appears to have taken a step back this year, the underlying numbers suggest he is better than his current power stats indicate. With a bit of luck and potential adjustments, Riley has the ability to bounce back and rediscover his power results.
Masyn Winn
Now hear me out, I know Winn is not your prototypical power hitter and only has three homers this season after hitting two across 37 games in his debut. Let’s not forget he did put up eighteen homers for Triple-A Memphis in 2022 across only 108 games. Focusing on his results at the major league level, there are promising signs. First of all, his launch angle is nearly ideal at 14.4 degrees. Secondly, he has been trading off fly balls and ground balls for line drives. He has a 32% line drive rate, which leads all qualified hitters, combined with an xBA of .288 that mostly supports the strong .303 he has hit. Combining a good approach, past power, a strong launch angle, and a high line drive rate, it is only a matter of time before a small tweak unleashes that power. This is the definition of untapped power potential.
