How Did Jackson Chourio Break Out in His Rookie Season?

This past MLB season saw its fair share of breakout stars, such as Oakland’s Mason Miller, Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, and Houston’s Ronel Blanco, but one player who introduced himself to the league in a big way is flying under the radar of a lot of people. That player is Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio. Chourio is a 20 year old Venezuelan outfielder ranked as the number two overall prospect by MLB.com, trailing only Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles. Signed by the Brewers at the ripe old age of 16 years old, Chourio has been under the watchful eye of MLB scouts his entire life. Just 2 years after his signing, Chourio was promoted to the Brewers’ Double-A affiliate Biloxi. In another year he reached the Triple-A level, and in just one more year he made the opening day roster for Milwaukee this season. Even with his meteoric rise however, Chourio did not see immediate success at the game’s highest level.

In his 85 games played in the first half of the season, Chourio had an xwOBA of just .287, striking out 70 times in those games. This horrendous record of offensive production had the Brewers debating demoting him back to Triple-A. A big reason for his lackluster performance was his plate discipline. Chourio chased pitches out of the zone at a rate of 38.1%, missing 51.1% of those pitches. In the zone, Chourio swung at 70.1% of pitches, but couldn’t consistently make solid contact, with a hard hit rate of just 36.9%. This lack of discipline combined with a lack of power to make up for it, was the biggest hole in Chourio’s game. Many teams find value in players who strike out more than average, but balance it out with higher production, something Chourio was unable to find in the first half of the season.

However, everything changed for Chourio after the All-Star Break. Chourio was able to cut down his Chase% by 12.4%, which helped him draw almost the same number of walks as the first half of his season in 22 fewer games. Cutting down his chases also earned him more pitches in the zone, which led to 4.6% more hard hit balls. Overall, Chourio was able to increase his xwOBA to .401, which was near the best in the league.

So how did Chourio go from almost getting demoted, to being near the top of the league in offensive production almost overnight? Chourio completely changed his approach at the plate. In the first half of the season Chourio swung the bat at a speed of 74 mph, which decreased to 72.5 mph in the second half. 1.5 mph slower may not seem like a lot, but when talking about bat speed, that drop in speed means the bat is in the zone for much longer, allowing the barrel to find the ball more often. Chourio also lengthened his swing, further allowing him to keep the barrel in the zone longer to create more consistent contact that he lacked before the All-Star Break. Chourio also improved his approach at the plate which allowed him to see more pitches and therefore get better pitches to hit. In the first half of the season, Chourio swung 57.4% of the time when he was ahead in the count, and chased 44.8% of the time when he was ahead. This allowed pitchers back into at-bats and kept Chourio from earning walks and better pitches in the zone to hit. However, in the second half he swung just 40.3% of the time and chased 33.3% of the time. This improvement in his ability to take control of at bats most definitely led to the jump in production that Chourio saw. Everyone knows Chourio has the tools to be a great player, but they weren’t able to be shown until he earned the respect of pitchers who were forced to throw him strikes once he cut down on his expansion of the zone.

The incredibly quick turnaround of Chourio’s season not only speaks to the quality of the Brewers organization, but further shows how incredible of a prospect Chourio is. His ability to completely change the way he approached at-bats that quickly is a very rare talent, and certainly shows that he is worth the hype. A full season of Chourio at his best will be something to look forward to for next season, and with him being just 20 years old and signed to a massive contract through as long as 2033, the Brewers may have found someone they can count on for years to come.