It was a great honor when Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions asked me to vote for this year’s Fielding Bible Awards. If you haven’t heard of them before, they’re an alternative to Gold Gloves that were devised by SIS and John Dewan in 2006. A panel of experts votes for 10 players across the majors at each position, as well as a multi-position award and a defensive player of the year. The awards will be released tomorrow, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET.
Imagine my surprise when I got asked to be one of those experts. I consider myself a strong analyst, but this is the big time: Peter Gammons is a frequent voter, and it’s downright terrifying to be compared to him. So if I was going to do this, I had to do it right. I did what anyone would do in my position: I had a long conversation with MLB Chief Data Architect Tom Tango about how to evaluate defensive systems.
Yeah, it’s good to have friends in high places, what can I say? One of the most pressing questions I had when I sat down to compile my ballot was how much attention to pay to the various defensive grading systems out there. There’s DRS and FRV, the two flagship options. There’s Baseball Prospectus’s DRP and the legacy system UZR. They all purport to measure defensive value, and they all do so with slightly different methodology. They don’t always agree. To give you an example, Taylor Walls is either 12 runs above average (DRS), two runs below (FRV), or somewhere in between (6.6 DRP, 3.8 UZR).
He’s not the only one. There are a host of players who defensive systems disagree about. Before I could vote for 100 defenders (10 per position), I decided that I needed to do a lot more setup work to make sure that I was operating with the correct data. I started by checking how correlated each system was to itself from one year to the next. I focused on three pairs of years: 2021-2022, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024. I used these because Statcast changed the data collection method from Trackman to HawkEye cameras in 2020, but the 2020 season was too abbreviated to get large sample size defensive metrics.
In addition to looking for how well one system was self-correlated, I looked at how well each system did at predicting the other systems in year two. There’s an interesting philosophical question here: If one system is very consistent, or in other words thinks the same thing about players from one year to the next, how important is it that it matches other systems?
In and of itself, not much! But you can imagine tons of ways that a metric that’s self-correlated but does a poor job of predicting others could go wrong. Maybe that system could be assigning grades based on last name, or height, or some other arbitrary metric that doesn’t change from one year to the next. But Tango had a solid suggestion to avoid that: Test every system against a naive way of measuring defense. I chose assists per ball in play. I then tested each system against that to make sure that the systems were doing what they say they do on the box: Measuring fielders’ ability to turn batted balls into outs.
I’m not going to go into the specifics of all the checks I did; this article is going to be long enough as it is, and it’s about who I voted for, not how I set out to evaluate all defensive metrics. But I’ll say this: Not every metric does the same at every position. DRP is spectacular when it comes to catcher defense, but last in the field at first base defense. DRS does best, on a relative basis, at first, though it’s fairly good across the infield. FRV is solid across the board by every way I could measure. UZR is consistently at the bottom of the table, but it’s still useful as part of the blend of metrics I used.
I created separate metric weights for catcher, first base, non-first-base infield, and outfield. I considered pitchers and multi-positional defenders separately on a case-by-case basis. For each position, I first used my weighted average of each defensive position to give me a baseline. Then I applied my judgment to move players within this order, particularly when they were close in value. I tried to have an overall light touch, though. No amount of eye-test vibes can make up for the fact that every single defensive system agrees that Juan Soto is a below-average fielder, for example.
I think that this process did a good job of combining the best information that publicly available defensive systems can produce with a critical evidence-focused eye on the game. I watch a ton of baseball, and I also spend quite a bit of time thinking about how to measure player skill, and the limits thereof. I’m just talking my own book here, but I really do believe this is the best way I can determine who played the best defense in baseball this year. So without further ado, let’s look at my balloting.
Catcher
1. Patrick Bailey
2. Cal Raleigh
3. Jake Rogers
4. Alejandro Kirk
5. Austin Wells
6. Bo Naylor
7. Freddy Fermin
8. Christian Vázquez
9. Francisco Alvarez
10. Gabriel Moreno
First things first: Patrick Bailey was the easiest vote I made on the entire ballot. He’s the best catcher defender regardless of how you want to calculate it. He’s the best receiver in baseball, the most valuable defensive skill there is. He’s only average at blocking pitches, but that isn’t a huge driver of value. And he’s demonstrably excellent at controlling the running game, a huge deal for a Giants team full of groundball pitchers who struggle to hold runners on. Think of it this way: Bailey played 908 innings at catcher and opponents attempted to steal second 64 times. He threw out 30% of them. Meanwhile, his backup Curt Casali caught 321 innings; opponents tried to steal second 34 times against him, and he threw out 9% of them. Runners stole 50% more often, and succeeded at an outrageous clip, when Bailey wasn’t around. He’s a huge part of San Francisco’s run prevention plans, and no catcher in baseball even approaches his defensive value.
Freddy Fermin didn’t play much in the postseason, because the Royals preferred an offense-first alignment, but that’s no knock on his defensive prowess. He’s an adequate receiver, but most of his value comes from his outrageous throwing arm and clean mechanics. His pop time was nearly as fast as Bailey’s, and he’s accurate to boot. The numbers don’t lie: 23 opponents tried to steal second against Fermin, and he threw out 14 of them. There’s an easy comparison here: Salvador Perez caught a similar number of innings and opponents attempted to steal against him at a similar rate. He threw out 29% of would-be base stealers. That’s comfortably above average… and it’s not even half of Fermin’s 61% rate. What a spectacular season.
Francisco Alvarez and Gabriel Moreno finished in a dead statistical heat, and I’m still not confident I got the order of their ranking right. Alvarez fared better as a framer, while Moreno’s game is far more well-rounded. In the end, I gave an edge to Alvarez because I think he has too much advantage in the most important catcher defense skill, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him much higher or much lower in defensive value next year. He has bad habits to clean up, but the talent is unquestionably there.
First Base
1. Christian Walker
2. Matt Olson
3. Carlos Santana
4. Bryce Harper
5. Ryan Mountcastle
6. Michael Busch
7. Michael Toglia
8. Nathaniel Lowe
9. LaMonte Wade Jr.
10. Freddie Freeman
Not a lot to see here, honestly. Christian Walker remains incredible; he’s been the best overall defensive first baseman by a mile since he took over the job in Arizona in 2019, and this year was another excellent effort. I would have been comfortable handing the top spot to anyone in the top three, but Walker’s consistency was a tiebreaker for me. Defensive metrics had these three too close to call, but I’m more confident they got him right because of his history.
Bryce Harper had a strong season in his first full year at first base – just what you’d expect for a star transitioning down the defensive spectrum. He looks right at home both digging out tough throws and ranging to his right to make plays. He’d be my early dark horse pick for next year’s top first base defender; the rate of improvement for a guy who had never played first base professionally before last season is simply amazing.
Second Base
1. Andrés Giménez
2. Brice Turang
3. Otto Lopez
4. Marcus Semien
5. Ketel Marte
6. Nico Hoerner
7. Bryson Stott
8. Xander Bogaerts
9. Jeff McNeil
10. Michael Massey
Andrés Giménez and Brice Turang stood out to me as a clear top duo. Giménez has the mathematical edge after blending defensive metrics – and he looked better to my eye, too. He and Turang are both plus shortstops playing down a rung on the defensive spectrum, so it’s no surprise that they’re at the top here. I was particularly impressed by Giménez’s ability to make plays up the middle. He has the strongest throwing arm of any second baseman by a mile, and he uses that to his advantage. No one in baseball is better at planting and turning from outrageous positions to make a strong throw to first.
I gave Xander Bogaerts a down-ballot vote because I was very impressed with his improvement at second as the year went on. I considered six players for the last three spots, and quite frankly they could have gone in any order. Bogaerts finished first of the bunch because I think he would have been further up the list with a full season to handle second. He switched back to shortstop after Ha-Seong Kim’s injury and thus played only 735 innings at the keystone. Given how well he took to it, I used that as a tiebreaker.
Jeff McNeil and Michael Massey were in similar boats; not a ton of innings, but reasonable overall defensive numbers nonetheless. I voted for McNeil as a sort of lifetime achievement nod. He’s not good enough to win one of these awards, but he’s been an underrated defender for a while now. He doesn’t look the part. The Mets still hide him in an outfield corner from time to time. But he’s an above-average defender at second base, which puts him right on the fringes of the top 10 most years. In my raw ranking, he actually came in 11th, a hair behind Nicky Lopez. He’s just on here because someone should recognize his defense.
Massey is headed the other direction. He missed a chunk of time this year – two different IL stints will do that. But he hit enough to play most days, and he also improved substantially at second. I think he’s headed for better defensive days; he’s on here so I can say I was there on the ground floor.
Shortstop
1. Ezequiel Tovar
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Dansby Swanson
4. Masyn Winn
5. Anthony Volpe
6. Brayan Rocchio
7. J.P. Crawford
8. Bobby Witt Jr.
9. Zach Neto
10. Corey Seager
This was the toughest ballot for me. There were six players I felt comfortable putting in the top spot on the ballot – which meant that every time I made a ballot, I had five voices in my head nagging at me that it was the wrong choice. Ezequiel Tovar was my initial pick, based purely off the eye test and before I had looked at any data, and defensive systems across the board absolutely loved him, which proved the tiebreaker in the end. Every machine grading players thought he was certifiably elite, a top-six shortstop at worst. Two of the four metrics I used had him first. I have few doubts about what those systems are picking up. He’s preternaturally smooth and rangy. He’s sure-handed. He had the highest rate of assists per inning, which was my naive check of these metrics, of any shortstop. Despite that, he had one of the lowest error rates. That combination is probably why every system loves him, and it’s why I picked him over the other group of great defenders.
Francisco Lindor and Dansby Swanson have been here before. Swanson won the award last year and Lindor has a few Gold Gloves in his trophy case. DRS was down on Lindor this year, but it loved him last year, and FRV thinks he’s just as good as ever. DRP thinks he improved a ton this year, even. Swanson, too, had a down year in DRS, but he still looks the part and still grades out well in my aggregate metric. Those are the three I gave the longest look for the top spot.
Masyn Winn, Anthony Volpe, and Brayan Rocchio will be competing for hardware for years to come. Winn posted the best DRS score of any shortstop, in fact, though he fared worse elsewhere. I think he has perhaps the highest potential of anyone here because of his ludicrous throwing arm, but he took a little time to get up to speed at the beginning of the year. One way of looking at it: He turned balls in play into outs at about the same rate as Tovar, but committed errors at triple the rate. He also slowed down pretty heavily in September, perhaps hitting a rookie wall. If I were speculating on who will be the best defensive shortstop in three years’ time, I’d pick either Winn or Tovar.
Volpe is in a similar boat in my eyes – just a little worse in the aggregate. This was a close call for me, because they’re dissimilar players. Winn is frequently making tough plays by virtue of his arm, while Volpe gets by with phenomenal range and instincts. Two of the big three defensive metric systems thought Volpe was the better defender this year, and my aggregate weighting had them in a dead heat. I gave the tie to the thrower. Rocchio is somewhere in between those two in terms of style, and if this were a worse crop of defenders, I’d even be happy putting him first. I just thought too many of these players had superlative years.
Quick down-ballot shoutouts: Corey Seager gets a nod for his remarkable ability to improve at shortstop later in his career; he’s good out there now! J.P. Crawford is probably on the downswing, but man, talk about a steady performer. He’s just a joy to watch defensively, and like Tovar but with the volume turned down, every defensive system liked what they saw.
Third Base
1. Matt Chapman
2. Joey Ortiz
3. Ke’Bryan Hayes
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Ryan McMahon
6. Josh Rojas
7. Alex Bregman
8. Ernie Clement
9. José Ramírez
10. Maikel Garcia
If I could have placed a single name on this one, I would have. Matt Chapman is the best by a mile. Everyone agrees. The guy is just a wizard. I felt like I was featuring him in every Five Things at one point this year, and I worried that it was because I’m just biased by where I live, but nope: He really makes those plays more than any other third baseman. He’s part of the old guard – he, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, and José Ramírez probably aren’t long for this list – but this year, he was pretty clearly the best guy at the position.
Ke’Bryan Hayes was right there with Chapman on a rate basis, but he played 500 fewer innings. That was enough to push him behind Joey Ortiz for me. Ortiz doesn’t quite look like he has the arm strength to play third, but appearances are deceiving. While he might give away a few outs on balls hit deep in the hole, he makes up for it with sure hands and great range. He looks to me like a plus shortstop learning third – he might be even better there by next year.
I was extremely excited to vote for Josh Rojas here. He absolutely deserves it. This is exactly where my weighted average defensive system had him – every system other than UZR thought he was great, and I don’t put much weight on UZR thanks to its middling reliability and predictive power. What an improvement! Rojas was notable for his lack of defensive prowess for years in Arizona. One year in Seattle, and he’s on the shortlist for defensive hardware. Great story.
If you have any questions on specific votes, I’d love to talk about them in the comments. I’ll be back tomorrow with the three outfield spots, pitchers, the multi-positional defender award, and of course defensive player of the year. The awards themselves will be announced tomorrow as well. I’m excited to see who wins them – and I’m confident that I did the best I could in filling out this ballot.
