A week has already passed since the last edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players? Wow, time flies when it’s baseball season. This week I want to talk about Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown.
You are already probably laughing out loud about putting Hunter Brown and Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player in the same sentence. And I don’t blame you. Here is a pitcher with some pretty scary numbers this season and for his career.
Since debuting with the Astros in 2022, Brown has compiled a 15-18 record with a 4.85 ERA and 1.378 WHIP. This season his numbers are downright ugly – 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.516 WHIP. So how in the world is this guy an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player?
Well, sometimes you have to look below the surface to really see what is happening. And with Brown, there is a lot that is going on below the surface that is now bubbling up for all to see.
Let’s dive in and take a look at Brown.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | W-L | G-GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2-0 | 7-2 | 20.1 | 0.89 | 1.082 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 9.7 | 3.14 |
| 2023 | 11-13 | 31-29 | 155.2 | 5.09 | 1.362 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 10.3 | 3.24 |
| 2024 | 2-5 | 13-12 | 61.1 | 5.58 | 1.516 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 9.8 | 2.31 |
As I previous mentioned, Brown’s career numbers don’t exactly instill confidence in him after a strong first impression. In 2022 when he appeared in seven games (two starts) and put up a 0.89 ERA and 1.082 WHIP. He was so good in September that the Astros added him to their postseason roster. He appeared in three games across the ALDS and ALCS and threw 3.2 shutout innings.
Last year he was expected to be a key member of the Houston rotation, and he appeared in 31 games and made 29 starts. But the season was a tale of two halves. Before the All-Star break Brown went 6-6 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while posting a 10.6 K/9 rate and 3.2 BB/9 rate. But the second half was a nightmare. In 12 starts and 14 appearances overall, Brown went 5-7 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.411 WHIP while his strikeout rate fell to 9.8 K/9.
The increased workload likely got to Brown. But the league also adjusted to him and Brown was unable to adjust himself.
During the offseason, the team hoped the time off would allow Brown to figure things out and start the season strongly. That did not happen.
2024 Splits
| Month | W-L | G-GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0-4 | 6-6 | 23.0 | 9.78 | 2.217 | 14.5 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 1.71 |
| May | 1-1 | 5-4 | 26.1 | 3.42 | 1.14 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 9.9 | 2.90 |
| June | 1-0 | 2-2 | 12.0 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 10.5 | 2.80 |
As you can see in the table above, Hunter Brown did not start the season strongly. In fact, it was downright horrific. Six starts with a 9.78 ERA and 2.217 WHIP. His walk rate was 5.5/9 and his strikeout rate was at 9.4/9 – below his career average. Included in this stretch was his third outing of the season against Kansas City. In two-thirds of an inning of work, he allowed 11 hits and one walk while allowing nine runs.
By the end of the month, Brown had pitched more than 5.1 innings only once and failed to pitch more than five innings four times.
But then came May. This is the month that Brown unveiled a new pitch – the sinker. And ever since he has been the pitcher the Astros envisioned him to be as he worked his way through the minors. Let’s take a quick look at Brown’s journey to today.
2022-2023
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A three-pitch to five-pitch pitcher
Throughout his career, Hunter Brown has basically featured three pitches – the four-seamer, a knuckle curve, and a cutter. He threw those three pitches a combined 97% of the time in 2022 with the Astros. The remaining three percent was a combination of his split finger (2.3%) and his sinker, which he threw a total of twice.
In 2023, Brown was still featuring his three main pitches, just mixing up the usage a bit more. The fastball usage dropped from 52.4% to 46.1% and his curve went from 31.4% to 23.8% usage while his cutter usage increased from 13.3% to 23.5%. He started to throw the splitter a bit more and tried to introduce a sweeper. Meanwhile, he all but abandoned the sinker, throwing it only five times all season.
2024
When the 2024 season got underway, Brown came out with a mixture of five pitches – four-seamer, cutter, curve, split finger and a slider. He relied on his fastball time and time again, throwing it 45% of the time. The cutter was thrown 18% of the time followed by his curve (16%) and the splitter (13%). The slider was thrown 8% of the time.
Brown had to rely on his 4-seamer so much because he was always behind in the count. Unable to command any of his pitches, he had to come into the strike zone with the fastball and opposing hitter were pouncing on the pitch to the tune of a .375 average and .667 slugging percentage. But it’s not like the four seamer was the only pitch Brown struggled with. Hitters had a .467/.933 slash line against his curve and .571/.571 slash line against the slider.
About the only pitch Brown had success with was his splitter as opposing hitters managed only a .214/.214 slash line against it.
In May, Brown finally brought the sinker back out of the closet and started featuring it more in games. His turnaround is due to a variety of factors, but the sinker is one of the top reasons.
Nearly all of Brown’s pitches were away to right-handers and into left-handers. The only pitch that faded away from lefties and into righties was his splitter. And not surprisingly, that was one of the few pitches he was having success with. But he needed a second pitch that would dive into righties but at a speed that is different from his splitter, which comes in at about 88 mph.
Thus, the sinker.
Hunter Brown throws the pitch at an average of 95 mph. Compared to other pitchers who throw a sinker, Brown’s is not above average. But what it does is provide another look to right-handed hitters and prevents them from covering the outside corner of the plate.
Brown threw his sinker 13.3% of the time in May with a .154 batting average against and .231 slugging percentage. In the meantime, his splitter continued to be effective. Hitters had a .188 average and .188 SLG against the pitch.
With Brown’s sinker covering the inside edge to righties, it is opening up the outside of the plate. His four seamer, which he threw only 38.5% of the time, had a .282 average against with a .538 SLG (he still gives up too many homers – a price he pays for pitching at the top of the zone with his four seamer). His other pitches started to be successful as well. Hitters had a .167 average against the cuter, a .143 average versus the curve and a .100 average against the slider.
And every single pitch Brown throws saw a usage rate above 10% in May. No longer was he relying on his four-seamer.
June has been just as kind to Brown as May was. While he has basically ditched the slider during his first two starts, he has continued to mix his pitches well. The four-seamer is down to a 31% usage rate while the cutter, curve, splitter, and sinker come in at rates of 20%, 17%, 17%, and 14%.
Opposing hitters have a .167 batting average entering Friday night’s start against Brown. The four-seamer and curve, which were getting hammered in April, now are getting outs. Opponents are hitting .250 against the four-seamer and .111 against the curve this month. And Brown’s splitter is now one of his most effective pitches with a .000 batting average against.
