Jake Irvin Stopped Walking People. You’ll Never Guess What Happened Next.

Back in January, I expressed grave concern over the state and direction of the Washington Nationals. They’d followed their World Series title with four straight last-place finishes, jettisoned most of their good players, and watched a series of prospects flame out. It wasn’t just a matter of waiting for Dylan Crews and James Wood to hit the majors; I argued that Washington needed to build a foundation of strong supporting players. Wood and Crews could be the difference between the Nats winning 80 games a year and 90, but if the infrastructure wasn’t ready, they’d turn a 70-win team into an 80-win team. And at that point, why did we even bother?

I’m pleased to report that the Nationals — no doubt sobered and inspired by my pessimistic appraisal of the situation — have answered the call. They don’t stink anymore. I don’t know if they’re good right now, as 38-41 and fourth place in the division isn’t exactly reminding anyone of the Big Red Machine. But on the journey from cheeks to championships, mediocrity is the first waypoint. Besides, with the NL Wild Card race being what it is, the Nats look like they’re going to be within a couple games of a playoff spot halfway through the season.

This growth hasn’t really been the result of roster turnover. Several Nats players have themselves gone from terrible to OK, or from OK to actually good. CJ Abrams is having a breakout year. MacKenzie Gore has been solid. Kyle Finnegan — unprecedented walkoff pitch clock violation notwithstanding — is having one of those sneaky good closer seasons that’s propped up fantasy teams since the 1990s.

Here’s another one: Jake Irvin. Last year, Irvin posted a 4.61 ERA and 5.30 FIP in 24 starts. I’m operating under the assumption that Irvin and the Nats were running some kind of experiment to see how long a starter could survive in 2023 with a K/BB ratio under 2.0. This year? Irvin has reshuffled his repertoire and cut his walk rate in half, and as a result, he’s taken a run and a half off his ERA.

The big difference in terms of pitch type for Irvin is that he’s added a cutter, giving him three different fastballs: four-seamer, sinker, cutter. You’d be forgiven for looking at Irvin and thinking that this is a prime Lance Lynn situation — he is a large, hirsute fella, listed at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds. Irvin matriculated at the University of Oklahoma, where I’m told it’s common for such a large individual to be referred to as “a hoss.”

But Irvin isn’t spraying three different fastballs to every hitter. Whereas last year, he used both his four-seamer and sinker to both left- and right-handed hitters, this year Irvin has one secondary fastball for each batter’s box: sinkers to righties, cutters to lefties. And you can see why, because a big part of his problem last year was lefties absolutely teed off against his sinker.

Did switching to a cutter fix things? Eh, kind of. It’s better than it was, at least. Irvin’s best weapon for enticing swings and misses, then as now, is his big, slow, looping curveball, which he throws to everyone. Righties see it 32% of the time and are hitting .176 against it; lefties get the hook 35.9% of the time and are hitting .213 against it with a wOBA of just .252.

The curveball is Irvin’s only pitch that rates more than a run either side of average, according to Baseball Savant. Irvin’s repertoire, like the Nationals as a whole, is fine. The whiff rate on his curve is 28.2%, and no other pitch in his arsenal (excepting the changeup and slider, which he’s thrown so rarely they might as well be data blips) has generated swings and misses more than a quarter of the time.

If you played youth baseball through the age where kids start to pitch, or have a sibling or child or friend who did, you probably know the first thing every coach tells a third grader who’s taking the mound for the first time: Throw it in the strike zone.

There are two reasons for this. First: Coaches know better than 8-year-olds how finite and precious the gift of life is, and how much of one’s life can be wasted if sweet little Brayxten can’t get the damn ball over the plate. You have to throw strikes or we’ll be here all day.

But second — and perhaps more relevant to a major league context — is that throwing strikes is how you get outs. It allows the pitcher to work ahead in the count. This season, league-wide, batters are hitting .274 with a .414 wOBA when ahead in the count, .259 with a .296 wOBA when the count is even, and .202 with a .224 wOBA when the pitcher is ahead.

Obviously, bad things can happen to pitchers who throw too many strikes, which is why basically nobody throws in the zone more than 60% of the time. But generally, it’s good to be in and around the plate.

Irvin has always thrown a lot of strikes; he’s seventh in zone rate this year out of 139 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. Last year, he was 10th out of 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings. But now he’s getting ahead of hitters more.

This is a pretty stark difference in first-pitch results. Irvin is throwing his best pitches more frequently on the first pitch of the plate appearance (though not by much; a difference of one percentage point is one plate appearance every four or five starts). He’s throwing the ball in the zone more and getting more strikes. His whiff rate on the first pitch is up by about half, and his wOBA in 0-0 counts is down by about 100 points.

Starting plate appearances this way is like eating a good breakfast. First-pitch strikes really stick to your ribs.

Irvin has made even more drastic changes at the other end of the plate appearance. Here are his numbers in three-ball counts.

This year, Irvin is 23rd in opponent wOBA in three-ball counts out of 114 pitchers who have thrown 1,000 or more total pitches. Last season, he was 92nd out of 100 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 total pitches.

And in order to make that leap, he’s cut way down on his worst pitch — either his cutter or sinker, depending on the handedness of the batter — while throwing over 60% more curveballs. He’s throwing in the zone more, and when he does venture beyond those confines, hitters are coming with him a remarkable 40.0% of the time. Not that he needs to go outside the strike zone to get a swing and miss. His in-zone whiff rate with three balls, which was 6.0% last year, is up to 12.9% in 2024.

Irvin didn’t wake up one morning with an 80-grade changeup or go into the lab to learn some new trendy pitch that remade him overnight. But he changed how he was throwing in a couple important situations, and in the process eliminated a massive weakness from his game. Where last year he was just another guy to fill out the rotation, this year he’s actually been good. It’s the Nationals in microcosm, if they can keep replicating this process with more players.