Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –10/8/24

Jay Jaffe: I was saddened to hear today about the death of Luis Tiant. Quite a memorable and colorful character, and a pitcher who I think probably belongs in the Hall of Fame. Wrote a bit about Tiant in light of S-JAWS a couple of years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-best-of-the-unens…. I’m going to try to figure out when I can fit in a tribute amid my playoff coverage.

Jay Jaffe: Which reminds me, thank you to everyone who chimed in with a kind word about my Pete Rose piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-pete-rose-1941-2024-the-hustle-has-fin…. I got a very nice note yesterday from Mark Monroe, the director of the HBO documentary for which I was interviewed, Charlie Hustle and the Matter of Pete Rose. Check it out if you want a no-holds-barred look at a very complicated figure.

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Phillies phan: Can you think of any possible reason for why the phillies bullpen decided to give up so many runs all of sudden? Matt Strahm had been solid all season and had duds back to back games

Jay Jaffe: Because stuff like this inevitably happens? Even the best bullpens get knocked around once in awhile, because relief pitching is a high-variance job. Most of these guys are two-pitch pitchers, and if one of those pitches isn’t working well, it’s trouble. It’s also worth remembering that particularly with division rivals, hitters can get multiple looks at a reliever and that can shift the advantage in their favor.

Guest: Is there a certain amount of plate appearances where you can move from just a sample size to indicative of a player’s value? How many would that be for a playoff sample?

Jay Jaffe: It’s definitely not enough to fit within a single playoff run.

Jay Jaffe: Different stats stabilize — that is, become reliable indicators — at different points. We discuss this every April and May especially. Swing rates take about 50-60 PA and batted ball outcomes take about 60 BIP

Johnny5Alive: You rather be the Mets or Phillies right now?

Jay Jaffe: Probably still the Phillies as I like the depth of their rotation more, and that will be a factor the longer this series goes on.

Phil: Which would be a bigger upset series win, Detroit or KC? Not just given where each series is but the season to date?

Jay Jaffe: Detroit, I think, because they were so far out of the picture for most of the season, and have gone on this run with a makeshift “rotation” where any one of us is likely to be called upon to pitch the first inning if it’s not Tarik Skubal

Tom R: Which player do you think did the most to increase their HOF chances year? Gotta be Sale, right?

Jim: If the Mets lose the series, how much sleep will Carlos Mendoza lose this winter over not yanking Severino against Harper?

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure he may live to regret it, but managers don’t tend to dwell on things — mistakes, especially — the way fans do.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: I hate having this many teams in the playoffs. There’s just too many teams that don’t deserve to advance every year. Do we really think the Tigers should have a chance to go all the way? Last year’s Rangers-Dbacks was pretty bad.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not a fan of the 12-team format either, because I think letting the sixth-best team in the league really does tend to show just how much variance there is in middle-of-the-pack teams’ performances over short series. Which isn’t to say that we don’t get entertaining baseball in October. But just remember that this a means of determining a tournament winner, not a definitive Best Team.

Nate: Does the Tigers run cause teams to reconsider the opener strategy? Or is it just an anomaly?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s something of an anomaly. We’ve seen teams cut back on opener usage in the past couple of seasons and I am skeptical we’ll see another proliferation, which isn’t to say that we won’t find examples. The Dodgers, if they have Othani and Yamamoto working on 6-man schedules, may end up doing a fair number of opener/bulk or bullpen games next year to keep those guys in line

Mike: Fun fact: due to bad weather, the 1964 Liberty Bowl football game was played indoors in the Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall. They had to play on a truncated 80 yard field, with curved banks and almost no sideline. Always wondered how “gimmicky” it must have felt, playing on an abnormal surface that would dramatically change the strategy—almost into a different game altogether.  I’m thankful to have watched a game at Yankee Stadium so I could have a relatable experience

Jay Jaffe: Wow, that football game sounds weird as hell. But as for Yankee Stadium, the fence dimensions have been around forever. It’s an anomaly just like the Green Monster is in Fenway, and visiting teams aren’t prevented from taking advantage of it, too

Nate: This nonsense with Machado throwing a ball toward the dugout might be the dumbest baseball discourse we’ve had in a while

Jay Jaffe: Like some cultural phenomena that I see on social media, i’m just going to try avoiding finding out exactly what happened for as long as possible

Grand Admiral Braun: How is catcher runs above average/value going to affect S. Perez and his HoF chances? Clearly not anywhere near the WAR and defensive value needed making him a “no” for me, but if he gets to 300-350 homers, will voters in 2035 or whatever hit the “yes” button?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a good question. Was talking about this a bit last night in the press box with associate editor Matt Martell (this series marks a first for me, btw, in having another FanGraphs colleague in the box so we can divide and conquer when it comes to postgame quote-gathering). I think Perez will have his supporters — and I certainly understand Royals fans’ love for him — but if I’m the guy pounding the table to take pitch-framing seriously and give long looks not only to Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, and inevitably (sigh) Yadier Molina, Perez isn’t the one I’m going to vote for if I want to retain some consistency

McGraw45: So many questions about Padres-Dodgers. Will MLB take the Roberts video seriously? Did Flaherty hit Tatis on purpose at an inopportune time in a playoff game? and manny, manny more.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t for a minute think Flaherty hit Tatis on purpose. But I do think that Profar’s deke on the home run robbery — which was amusing but also borderline taunting — kind of raised tensions and made every stupid thing that happened thereafter seem quite charged, and the Dodger Stadium fans throwing balls and whatever else on the field really made for a horseshit look.

Guest: Any hope for Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: If the old Walker Buehler shows up, perhaps. But I don’t like the odds on that. Even without Joe Musgrove, the Padres’ rotation is so much better, and the team looks quite loose.

Jay Jaffe: For the record I did pick the Padres to advance in our staff poll.

Talfred: It seems to me that the Yankees’ picking up Cole’s option by adding a year is not as likely as many think. Five years at $36MM per is a LOT of money for a 34 year old coming off an elbow injury. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: I think you’re mistaken to think this is just about the rational expenditure of a billionaire’s dollars. The Yankees love Cole, see him as being a tremendously valuable leader and teammate beyond just his pitching capability, which is quite good. I’m about 98% sure going to work something out.

Jim Bob Cooter: What are the chances that Lindor breaks the SS HR record? He’s at 248 and the record is 353.

Jay Jaffe: Discussed in our Wild Card chat https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2024-wild-card-chat/. The numbers as shortstop (i.e. not at other positions) are  241 for Lindor and 345 for Ripken, and ZiPS projects Lindor for another 131 homers, and while it can’t really tell you whether he moves off the position, he’s clearly a good enough SS to stick around there for awhile. So better than 50% is probably where I’d put it.

emh1969: He’s obviously far away but could Andres Gimenez make the Hall as defensive first 2nd baseman (I think only Maz fits that criteria)?

Jay Jaffe: Highly doubtful based on what we’ve seen, which isn’t to say there’s no growth left. But he’s got a career 101 OPS+ and has fallen 38 runs in the batting component of bWAR from his big season two years ago. When his defense inevitably regresses, if he’s a below-average hitter he’s not gonna make it to 40.

Mazeroski being in the Hall is a fluke that owes everything to his 1960 World Series-winning homer. Frank White’s numbers and defensive reputation are virtually the same, and he came nowhere close.

ROY: Do you see Merrill’s playoff performance having any impact on ROY voting even though it theoretically shouldn’t?

Jay Jaffe: The balloting for the major awards is done BEFORE the start of the playoffs, so it won’t have an impact. That’s not to say that voters ignored Merrill’s role in helping the Padres to the playoffs — it’s a point in his favor, especially given the seamless position switch

Domenic: Are there any players who you’ve eyed as possible Hall of Famers that aren’t quite on track? Or, phrased differently, are there any guys who you’re keeping your eyes on because a big year or two could mean a ton? I’m thinking of someone like Chris Sale, or maybe even Christian Yelich – though, both are more health cases than I’m necessarily looking for.

Jay Jaffe: Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler stand out. As far as active starters go there’s a vacuum once you get past the last-legs guys (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer). Cole seems like the obvious next guy, and Sale’s resurrected career probably puts him in play too. If Nola and/or Wheeler can hold up, they could elbow their way into the picture. Hopefully without hurting their elbows or shoulders.

Bob: How hot is Roberts’ seat if they go out against the Padres?

Jay Jaffe: Not hot. Their biggest obstacle is the dilapidated nature of their rotation given all the injuries, and that’s not on his shoulders — he’s not overworking those guys, he’s not designing their throwing programs and rehabs and such.

Bob: Playoff schedule in the AL for this division series is terrible. The teams get a day or more off before game one, a day off after game one, a day off after game two, a day off after game four. This results in rested bullpens. That’s not how baseball should work. They need to have tired pens. Which teams will benefit more from having those extra days off to rest their pen for these series? Detroit or Cleveland? KC or NY?

Jay Jaffe: Playoff baseball is a different beast than regular-season baseball because of the off days. ‘Twas ever thus, even before the expanded formats, given the presence of travel days. The 162 game season favors depth, but best of 3/5/7 means less reliance upon it, not to mention the interjection of insane small-sample variance. I don’t think anybody wants to see TIRED pens because that means you’re going to be watching a lot of 12th and 13th pitchers doing mop-up in 10-2 games. Not great entertainment.

Seeking Solutions: So far, this is one of the most entertaining postseasons in memory, even if there are too many teams in it. So, here’s my proposal – 3 games followed by 5 games followed by two 7 game series makes no sense. Either cut down the Division Series to 3 games with the bye team getting the full home field advantage, or just make it a seven game series already. Am I wrong to think this weird 5 game series is just awful?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t like the best-of-threes, which have only produced 2 three-game series in three years so far. Might as well go with a winner-take-all game, those are so. much. more. fun.

Best-of-fives have been around for over 50 years by now and they’re much, much better than best-of-threes.

P.S. I am not a crank.

Reds Enjoyer: Terry Francona said in his openning press conference that the subject of increasing payroll never came up when he was talking to the Reds about the manager job. Is it more likely that this is true or that they really did talk about increasing payroll and he would just never say so to the press?

Jay Jaffe: Terry hasn’t lasted roughly a quarter-century as a manager by selling out his employers. I’m sure payroll was discussed, and he at least heard answers that didn’t scare him away. He knows how to be diplomatic, so here we are.

I’m shocked he took another job, tbh, given his myriad health issues. Should make for an interesting team.

AFL: Any prospects you’re excited to watch in the AFL?

Jay Jaffe: I generally don’t have the bandwidth to watch AFL games because my attention is elsewhere — postseason stuff and then offseason stuff. I do enjoy finding out what the prospect hounds such as Eric Longenhagen think of what they saw, but that’s generally long after the fact.

Seeking Solutions: Being self-reflective here, my Pirates lost one of those 5 game series, and I’m still gutted. And if not a crank, then cranky.

Jay Jaffe: Having your favorite team lose in the playoffs sucks, inevitably. I don’t have the same attachment to teams now as I did when I was writing about baseball as a hobby rather than a job, but I know that sick-to-the-stomach feeling that comes with watching your team get ground down and there’s nothing you can do about it. It hurts a lot, it’s depressing, and then it’s over, and then (IMO) the best thing left to do is to try to enjoy what’s left of the baseball schedule as a fan of the game rather than of your team.

Daniel: Gambling, as a behavioral problem, is not dissimilar to drinking or other substance use issues. For some folks, it’s compulsive and requires treatment– not a moral failing. Rose is an outlier case for a number of reasons, but I wonder if thinking will evolve around player gambling so that it’s not treated so differently from a player who hurts his team, say, by playing hungover.

Jay Jaffe: I agree with you but that doesn’t mean there aren’t consequences for violating rules and laws. An alcoholic getting a DUI needs both treatment for his/her drinking problem and punishment for putting people in grave danger. A gambler who puts into question the integrity of the sport given their ability to profit from inside information or have a direct impact on winning and losing deserves to be banished.

Jay Jaffe: I wish for his own sake Rose had sought treatment for his gambling addiction/compulsion. Had he done that, and demonstrated contrition, I have little doubt he would have been reinstated eventually.

I don’t know if MLB was strong enough when it came to pushing Rose to get treatment. Maybe doing something like saying, “We’re going to enroll you in [whatever the Betty Ford Clinic equivalent is for gamblers] and if you complete the program, MLB will foot the bill in recognition of your service to the game. After that, you’re going to do a/b/c, and if you can do that for X years, we will evaluate you for reinstatement.”

Jonathan W: How confident are you in the Yankees pulling of the series win? I feel like they have no choice but to dump Boone if they don’t make it out of this series. Side note, is it just me or is everybody ignoring the fact that Rodon started looking iffy after he was hit by the comebacker?

Jay Jaffe: The comebacker hit off Rodon’s glove, but I think you have a point. What was missing from that sequence was an effort to get Rodon to slow the game down again. I think Wells has to get out there and pay him a visit to keep him in check.

Jay Jaffe: As for Boone, I’m of the opinion it’s probably time to move on as well, but that doesn’t mean I see it happening if they don’t win this series. The Yankees value him beyond the x’s and o’s — the players from Judge on down really like him, believe he has their back, and inside the organization that goes a long way. But I understand fans’ frustration  especially given the organization’s history. Everybody wants a beheading at the first series loss.

Bob G: What’s the logic for playoff off-days that aren’t travel days? TV money?

Jay Jaffe: Less overlap in games. Those four-game days can be a lot of fun but if you’ve got two games going on at once, you’re not maximizing your audience.

Nate: Would you rather be in the Tigers or Guardians shoes right now?

Jay Jaffe: Probably the Guardians given that they have legitimate starters on tap for 3 and 4, but I kind of like where the Tigers are at. They’re playing as though they have nothing to lose, and they really don’t, plus if they can stretch this to Game 5 they have Skubal ready.

Kellen Voss: Has a hitter as good as Kerry Carpenter ever had such extreme splits? He’s arguably the Tigers’ best hitter, yet he doesn’t even start against lefties. I’m only 25 so I don’t have a ton of context, but this feels like an anomaly.

Jay Jaffe: Offhand I don’t know, but the problem with a real evaluation of the question is that 32 PA of 18 wRC+ production isn’t really enough to get at a player’s talent level. The career gap (148 wrC+ vs RHP, 69 vs LHP) does seem quite large, but even the 134 PA for the latter isn’t a huge sample to evaluate.

Rob: Who wins the ALDS and NLDS series?

Jay Jaffe: In our staff poll I picked Houston (LOL), Yankees, Phillies, and Padres. I’d like to revise that and say I no longer think Houston is going to win.

McGraw45: How much does playoff performance factor into Hall of Fame induction?

Jay Jaffe: it varies. I think it was a massive factor for David Ortiz and as mentioned, probably Mazeroski. Probably fair to say it helped Koufax too given his short counting stats. Certainly a whole lot of pitchers from the pre-television days; if you won a couple World Series games and had a few dominant years, like Charles Bender or Lefty Gomez or Dizzy Dean, you may very well have gotten in  despite a lack of longevity

Zach: The Dodgers shouldn’t throw Tatis another strike in this series unless they have to, right? Also, the narrative probably changes with Mookie if Profar doesn’t rob that homer, but at what point does it stop being a small sample size and instead start being a mental issue?

Jay Jaffe: 3-for-44 or whatever sounds very much like it’s both a sample size and mental issue. Obviously he didn’t forget how to hit, but he’s being keyed on and he’s pressing and it’s not working out great.

And yeah, I think the Dodgers shouldn’t throw Tatis many strikes but it’s very tough to pull that off. He’s got vulnerabilities like every other hitter; the real problem is that the Dodgers’ pitchers may not be good enough to exploit them.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, that’s it from here for today. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the remainder of the Division Series!