Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –11/19/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my Tuesday chat in awhile. Between playoff coverage, election day, and a family emergency, I haven’t been able to fill this timeslot in awhile; apologies if you’ve been itching for a chat (also, please see a doctor if the itch persists).

Jay Jaffe: That one will go live at 12:30 I’m told. Vic Harris will follow tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: One more bit of adminstration before I get into the questions. Since I last chatted, Bluesky has taken off as the social media platform of choice for baseball chatter of a certain bent, and almost everybody from the FanGraphs family now has an account there. Dan Szymborski helpfully put together a starter pack of the FG-related accounts here https://bsky.app/profile/dszymborski.bsky.social/post/3layykgak222s; I’m @jayjaffe.bsky.social there

Jay Jaffe: I’m winding down my participation on Uncle Elmo’s Authoritatian Disinfo, Grift,and Harassment platform but haven’t entirely figured out the timeline for that. If you want to interact with me and my work, that’s less likely to draw a response now.

Anyway, on with the show…

Filipe: Hi Jay! Do you think there’s going to be a lockout in 2026/27? Missed regular season games?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know! People ask about this every few months and while i could easily dodge the question, I just fail to see the point in worrying about it until we’re actually looking down the barrel of it.

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure the union is concerned, but nothing is going to happen without an imminent deadline.

Guest: Do you really think Utley eventually gets in? A lot of the voters are more analytically inclined now than those that didn’t vote for the likes of Rolen 10 years ago, but he still didn’t come close.

Jay Jaffe: In the past decade, we’ve seen a handful of candidates overcome starts much lower than Utley’s 29.8%, including Tim Raines, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Mike Mussina, and (hopefully) Wagner. I’m not guaranteeing anything, particularly in the near term, but I think he’ll make it.

Bob: In your opinion what are the chances that ohtani wins unanimous mvp once again.

Jay Jaffe: Pretty high. There was a point where voting for Lindor  seemed defensible ,but his time missed down the stretch probably threw cold water on that. Still had an amazing season (and postseason)

T2: Thank you for doing this. If Ohtani does not throw another pitch at the MLB level (hope this won’t happen) but produces at ~70% of the 2024 levels by bat in 5 of the remaining years of the current contract (still >35, 35!), will he be in HOF?

G4: Agree/disagree? Excluding Manny/Ichiro, Beltran is the on-ballot outfielder most deserving of HoF induction.

Jay Jaffe: yes. Second-highest career WAR on the ballot — higher than Ichiro, even — and a considerable collection of stats and accomplishments. He’s solidy ahead of Andruw and Abreu, and a million miles ahead of the ballot’s other OFs

G4: Do you expect you’ll personally select the maximum 10 players in this year’s vote?

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Haven’t entirely figured it out yet; I’m still battling with my virtual Classic Baseball ballot

Talfred: Does it seem to you that some of the big revenue teams have just decided to stop concerning themselves with the Competitive Balance Tax penalties? Are revenues that strong?

Jay Jaffe: I think these things tend to be cyclical. We saw the Dodgers and Yankees dial back for a couple years to reset themselves and avoid the worst penalties, and  eventually we’ll see, like, the Mets and Padres do it

davealden53: I’m happy to be a FanGraphs member for many reasons but one of the top ones is Roster Resource.  Thus, I’m uncomfortable that the latest Roster Resource transaction shown is October 13.  Just an offseason break or is something changing?

Pauly Shore: Is Paul Skenes the most hyped pitcher after his first season of this century? Spencer Strider, Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Felix Hernandez are the challengers that come to mind.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really have an easy way of measuring that but I’d say Strasburg, Fernandez, and Felix all stand out as receiving massive hype as well.

Dan Sanchez: Who do you see aging more gracefully, Corbin Burnes or Max Fried? Burnes has historically had the advantage in stuff and strikeouts, but his K% has been declining for years, while Fried’s pedestrian rate has held and he’s relied on command and GB% to be effective. Then again, Burnes has been much more durable.

davealden53: Is the purported move of Betts back to the infield real or just a strategy to confuse the free agent market, e.g., “the Dodgers don’t really need Adames”?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t discount the latter possibility but I think it has more to do with their attempt to retain Teoscar Hernández (and I don’t think they’re serious about Soto but they can’t NOT meet with him)

Dan Sanchez: Jurickson Profar has been extremely volatile over the years, but is coming off a huge walk season. Seems like for 3/45 you could end up getting a bench guy or a star, or maybe something in the middle. What do you expect from him over the next few years?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll be an above-average contributor but not a star-level one, with some of his value diminished by   his crummy defense. He’s really got to get better out there.

wheelhouse: is there any set of moves by which the yankees can be said to have had a “good” offseason in which they lose Soto? seems like a failure by default given what the other options are

Jay Jaffe: I think it would take something like signing one of the front-line pitchers (Burnes, Fried, Snell), adding Christian Walker at first base, getting a good left or center fielder and second or third baseman either via the FA market or trade (retaining Gleyber is one option there, obv). I will note that retaining Gerrit Cole (without investing an additional dime!) would also be one element of a successful but Soto-free offseason, and they’ve already banked that. It won’t be an obvious win but man, those are some serious areas of need.

Phil: Will Ichiro be the oldest-debuting Hall of Famer (googling this question gets you Paige, which is wrong, since the Negro Leagues are major leagues)?

Jay Jaffe: I think we have to set the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball aside to get an accurate answer, since there were HOFers who played in the non-major Black leagues; John Henry Lloyd was 37 in 1921, for one.

Guest: who is your favorite “underdog” candidate and why is it Francisco Rodriguez?

Jay Jaffe: It is definitely NOT K-Rod.

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s Utley in terms of ones I’m optimistic about regarding eventual election, and Russell Martin for the one I don’t expect to get there anytime soon but one I intend to make a point about regarding the value of catcher framing as it pertains to current and upcoming candidates.

Guest: Does Buehrle have a shot within the next 6 years to be voted as a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: after slipping to 8.3% last year, I’m even more skeptical than I was before. Not happening via the writers. True for Pettitte as well

Joe: How much stock, if any, do you put in the concept of “fame” being important for election?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a consideration but not an overwhelming one. I can look at Steve Garvey, note his outsized fame, and then his numbers, and it doesn’t change my opinion that he shouldn’t be elected. I can look at Tommy John, consider the weight of him being a pioneer as a biomedical guinea pig, and have that cause me to waver a bit longer as to which way I’m going.

Jay Jaffe: Gonna take a couple minutes to share that on the social platforms…

Phil: Thinking about Dick Allen and others makes me wonder: for you as a voter, how much would a player’s health affect your vote (I understand that it comes up much more frequently with the committees than with BBWAA, though stuff can certainly happen to folks in their 50s)? If you were on the fence about somebody but you thought they’d probably get in eventually anyway, would the question of their ability to experience it affect your vote, or is it just the merits, period?

Jay Jaffe: In the wake of Luis Tiant’s death and my thoughts about Tommy John, I’m asking myself that question a lot these days. I don’t know the answer. I tend to stick pretty closely to performance while trying to put it into an historical and social context, and with all that it’s a clear edge for Tiant, but for as lukewarm as I have been about John for 20+ years as a candidate, the prospect that this could be the last ballot of his lifetime weighs on me a bit.

Seeking Solutions: I’ve become increasingly convinced that the “extras” that a player brings, (Tommy John, Curt Flood, etc) should be enough to tip the scales in their favor. Maybe it’s because I’m a Pirate fan and Roberto Clemente was the ultimate example of this, getting in early because of his heroic and untimely end. Has your thinking changed on this issue over the years?

Jay Jaffe: I’m definitely more in favor of Flood’s induction than I’ve been in the past, and in retrospect feel a tinge of regret that I didn’t beat the drum harder for his inclusion on this ballot. As noted in the previous answer, I’m thinking about it re: John but I’m not there yet

Jay Jaffe: I probably would have tabbed Merrill over Skenes — he hadn’t played above Double-A, hadn’t played center before the spring, and turned out to be a key driver of a playoff team while taking to the position incredibly well. No problem with Skenes winning, though. He’s something special, too.

Jay Jaffe: I was more sold on Gil over Cowser but didn’t have a strong opinion either way

Adam B.: What’s the optimal answer for where the Rays play their home games before a new stadium is built?  What do you expect will actually happen?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s an optimal answer, but Steinbrenner Field in Tampa always seemed like the most obvious solution and i expect it could be a multiyear one. It’s at least attainable for local fans, while moving them hundreds of miles away would not be.

Jeremy: It’s always seemed a little weird to me that the vote shares of so many Hall of Famers, and also some guys who don’t make it, change so much over time. Often starting low and increasing substantially. I mean, analytics has been around for a long time now. Nobody’s going to learn anything about (say) Chase Utley over the next 9 years that they don’t already know. So why haven’t most of the voters already decided one way or the other on Utley (and many other candidates)?

Jay Jaffe: Your viewpoint fails to account for the space limitation on a ballot. As candidacies age or gain support, they gain urgency, and voters are more likely to take a closer look and reconsider their previous stances.

Jay Jaffe: What’s more, there will be turnover in the electorate that helps to drive the increasing share of voters. There are FanGraphs readers becoming voters, after all.

And i highly disagree that “nobody is going to learn anything” about a candidate. We’ve had an explosion of data within baseball in the past two decades, and not every voter is as up to speed on the cutting edge of analysis. But even old dogs do learn new tricks, and they come around — I wouldn’t have made my mark in this racket if that weren’t the case.

Guest: Hi Jay, this is my first chat, and I want to let you know I’ve enjoyed your HOF analysis since your days at SI.  Thank you for doing what you do.  With that said, I have to say that 1. Billy Wagner is overdue.  He was just flat out dominant, and when he entered the game, it was obvious the odds were slim that he wouldn’t slam the door.  2. CC may look like a first-ballot HOFer, but 3000ks + the goodwill he’s done for the sport + overcoming his demons… idk, it just looks like it should be Wagner, Ichiro, and Sabathia this year.  What are your high-level thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. You’ll find my high-level thoughts, which somewhat parallel your own, in yesterday’s piece linked atop this article

CleGuy: If you could have created the Classic Baseball Ballot yourself, who would you have included?

Jay Jaffe: Flood and Doc Adams are the two most glaring omissions. I could probably come up with a slate of 8 ideal candidates, but that might paralyze even me when it comes to choosing which three to vote for. As Dan and I modeled a couple years ago, you actually do need some ballast in order to avoid the likelihood of a shutout

Philly: Should the Rule 5 Draft also be a lottery? Does removing more benefits of tanking ultimately benefit the MLB

Jay Jaffe: Meh, the impact of the R5 draft order is low enough that I don’t think it needs to be overcomplicated.

Jay Jaffe: For those wondering what’s for lunch, there’s nothing like the excitement of a Reuben arriving 30 minutes late and below room temperature. GDI

Straw: What’s more likely?  That Wright gains ground or that he falls off the ballot?

Jay Jaffe: Given that he received just 6.2% last year, the latter is far more likely

Matt Kory: Hey Jay! Hope all is well with you. What would you say the chances are of Dustin Pedroia getting into the Hall at some point (i.e. including various committees)?

Jay Jaffe: Low. So far we have exactly one expansion era (post-1960) player with fewer than 2000 hits who’s been elected by either the writers or committee and has made it, and that’s Tony Oliva. There’s an emerging competition for the second spot between Dick Allen, Andruw Jones, Chase Utley, Buster Posey, and so on, but falling short still represents a significant obstacle to election, and for a guy who’s further off the WAR and JAWS benchmarks than those above (if they are), it only gets more difficult

Disgruntled: I think it’s a big oversight by the union that neither the Padres nor the Orioles got a PPI pick for their second place ROY finish. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Now that we have examples, it might become a bargaining point in the next CBA negotiations but I doubt it’s a hill anyone will die on

Phil: In the past, the assumption has been that the obstacle to unanimity has been grumpy old-schoolers. Regarding Ichiro, are you concerned about grumpy new-schoolers playing that role? I got so tired of a certain kind of saber type complaining that he didn’t walk enough and ignoring what a joy he was to watch, and I’m a little worried.

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I am braced for a Griffey/Jeter near-miss already and would recommend hucking rotten eggs at any holdout regardless of their age

Philly: lol at latest comment about Betts moving to infield. Dodgers fans think everything is about them

Jay Jaffe: Well, when you’ve nabbed Ohtani and Yamamoto, won a World Series, and then kicked the tires on Sasaki and Soto without ownership crying publicly about payroll, I think they can be forgiven.

Phil: Strasburg hype was completely insane, from well before his debut to well after. People forget.

Jay Jaffe: Exactly.

Tyler: Hi Jay, I’m currently working on a project just for fun by trying to put together all-time rosters for each franchise. I apologize if this isn’t the right forum to ask this. But for part of my analysis I thought it would be a good idea to do using a similar formula to JAWS, only adjusting the number of years it’s divided by. With that being said I have 2 questions: 1) If I wanted to utilize this in a blog or podcast do you approve? and, 2) What is the number of years that you think would be best to compare player performance for one franchise? Thanks for you time!

Jay Jaffe: Find me on a social media platform and ask this, we can have a discussion away from the chat.

Tim: What would it take for the MLB to implement a salary floor?
Would it have to come with a soft NBA-style cap for the owners to agree to it?

Jay Jaffe: For the union to agree to any kind of floor/cap system would almost certainly require lowering the arbitration and free agency thresholds so that younger players get paid earlier, and more in line with their current production. Any proposal that doesn’t account for that probably isn’t worth reading a second sentence about.

Colton: Any thoughts on the report that Boras and Bregman are seeking Machado money? Feels like they’re going to run into the same mistake the Boras guys had last year by doing so

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I raised my eyebrows at that one. Bregman ain’t Machado, which is to say that for as much as Manny has played the villain, sometimes for valid reasons (the slide into Pedroia, for one), and sometimes for bullshit ones, I don’t imagine an owner or a clubhouse viewing Bregman as a transformative player the way that the Padres did with Machado.

Bob: I’ve read several article making mention of the ways in which the upcoming changes to Camden will benefit the current Oriole roster. Are these changes a one-off or could modifying the park to suit the roster eventually become part of teams preseason strategies?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect the league would say “cool it” if this became so routine that things changed annually.

MikeD: Do you think CC’s election might help Pettitte, forcing a re-eximination of recent starting pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe a little but not enough to move the needle (no pun intended) by the time he falls off the ballot.

Jaded Nats Fan: Predictions on % vote Ichiro will get?

Jay Jaffe: 99.5% (two holdouts)

Soto-less Success: I think any team that gets Roki Sasaki can argue they had a successful offseason on that alone.

Jay Jaffe: given how little he’ll cost, yeah

McGraw45: I pointed out one of Steve Garvey’s campaign poster to my wife and she had no clue who she was… baseball fame just ain’t what it used to be

Jay Jaffe: you’re saying his baseball career didn’t father stronger expectations for his Senate candidacy??

Florida: ….so how is playing outdoors in Florida in midsummer going to work?

Jay Jaffe: Outfielders will be allowed to carry umbrellas but after one is struck by lightning, the league will rescind the rule.

Datt Mamon: So as a Cubs fan, I want them to sign Soto and I know they can afford it. But the one thing I don’t see discussed is the impact it would have on the payroll overall…again, they can obviously afford to pay whatever, but how much can we blame a team for not wanting to comming $50-$60 million a year on one guy? Or should they just do it regardless?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think a team can be players for Soto without also budgeting for some other significant contracts. If you’re not already committing large money to a core of viable players in their prime, he ain’t considering your team

Doc: What’s your prediction for next year’s Committee election?  Does this year’s ballot indicate another debate over Don Mattingly and the steroid folks?  Any chance we get Keith, Cone, and Randolph, who certainly deserve their day on a ballot?

Jay Jaffe: what, being preoccupied by the two upcoming elections isn’t enough? I have no thoughts on next year yet except to say we’re probably going to see recycled candidacies and frustrating omissions that will make us roll our eyes, because both of those things are constant within this process.

Guest: If a guy like Wright falls off the ballot because it’s a crowded ballot, it’s just more evidence that the process is flawed and sucks.

Jay Jaffe: Not at all. He’s going to fall off the ballot because he didn’t have a complete career due to injuries. That’s sad, but there are literally hundreds of players in the same boat and it’s not evidence of a flawed process.

Spend Uncle Stevie’s Money: If you were David Stearns, what would be your Mets plan for the off-season?

Jay Jaffe: Sign Soto, one of the frontline starters, bring back Severino, and find an upgrade for right field. Get some insurance for Baty at third base, shift Vientos to first.

Florida: …that’s not that much worse than the catwalk rules then

Jay Jaffe: LOL

mmddyyyy: Will expansion teams also mean expansion minor league teams?

Jay Jaffe: They’ll need affiliates, won’t they?

Jay Jaffe: I’d expect there would be a reshuffling ripple that would take multiple years to unfold.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, tons of good questions today and more I can’t get to. Thanks for stopping by. not sure yet about next week as it’s just before Thanksgiving but we’ll do this again soonish.