Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/6/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s been awhile since I did one of these thanks to even more July chaos than usual — Replacement Level Killers, trade deadline and Hall of Fame stuff. Glad to finally squeeze one of these in.

Jay Jaffe: (grateful for the ZiPS help from Dan Szymborski on that one and yes, i’ll take the over on the post-2024 Trout projection)

Ryan: For what Preller had to cut in payroll and trading Soto I think this is his best job as a GM to date. It just seems like a more complete team then any of his previous iterations. Thoughts on the job he’s done with the restrictions placed on him?

Jay Jaffe: As noted above, I wrote about the Padres on Friday. They’ve dealt with some significant injuries but this has turned out to be a deeper squad than last year, in part because they somehow lucked into a Jurickson Profar career year after a season that might have been a career-ender, and because the Jackson Merrill center field move has paid off so well. I thought they did very well in augmenting their bullpen at the deadline.

Long story short, the Padres’ strength in scouting under Preller, and his philosophy about trading them instead of getting too attached to them, has allowed him to reinforce his rosters and remain competitive even while dealing with some limitations.

Doc: Do you have a take on Mark Vientos?  I did not see this coming.  He’s been a reliable threat offensively, and more than adequate defensively.  He’s no Francisco, but the Mets would not be where they are today without him.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a strong take but figured that between Vientos and Baty, it wasn’t unreasonable that one would pan out and provide some genuine help. And I agree that Vientos’ bat has more than offset the concerns about his glove.

Benjamin, J: Does Jose Ramirez’s multifaceted approach to the game make him less likely to earn induction into the Hall of Fame? I can’t help but worry that since Jose’s not the defender Scott Rolen is (but also not the hitter Chipper Jones is) that he may get left behind

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s sometimes harder for a candidate with a broader skill set to stand out to voters, but we are talking about a player who’s already banked four top-four finishes in the AL MVP voting; the writers are aware that he’s been one of the best players in the league, and a huge reason that Cleveland has been so competitive in the AL Central.

12 to 6: thus far this season, this mlb team has lost/been without for significant periods: its starting ss (and mvp candidate and second best hitter), replacement ss (and gold glove level defender), starting 1b (and mvp canddiate and third best hitter), starting 3b (and all star, lynchpin power hitter), starting right fielder (and best defensive regular outfielder), second and third most pivotal bullpen arms, and their #2, #3, and #4 opening day pitching rotation members, as well as (in addition) three of their best starting pitchers (and other sundry pieces); yet, they are in first place and have the second best run differential in baseball.

i invite people to criticize friedman’s work – it is *remarkable* that the dodgers continue to dominate given their injury patterns this year.

Jay Jaffe: I think that litany overstates things a bit (Freeman missing 8 games isn’t the same as Mookie missing two months, Heyward no longer really being a regular or a great defender) but yes, it’s impressive that the Dodgers have survived so many injuries and underperformaces. They really have made a thing out of cultivating some amazing depth, which has helped them avoid panicking when they’ve lost, say, Yamamoto and Glasnow to the IL at the same time while Kershaw was still rehabbing.

That said, I also was impressed by their landing Flaherty for seemingly not much while other contenders sat on their hands with regards to frontline pitching.

Matt: Hey Jay, do you think the Covid-shortened season will have any effect on players HOF chances? I think of someone like Jose Ramirez, who was on pace for a 7-8 WAR season and could have gotten around 100 more hits in a 162-game schedule. While you could argue he’s well on his way to the HOF, players like Nolan Arenado, Felix Hernandez and Manny Machado (to an extent) show sometimes the descent is more pronounced than gradual.

Jay Jaffe: it might have an effect when it comes to some edge cases, just as the 1981 and ’94 strikes did, but I don’t think anybody who lived through the 2020 season is going to forget the circumstances of what the players went through and what they lost anytime soon. This isn’t going to be like 1992 voters failing to consider what Bobby Grich lost in the ’81 strike.

Selina: Three strong new candidates (Ichiro and CC).  A hopeful shoo-in (Wagner).  Several returnees with momentum (Beltran, Andruw, Utley).  A strong first-year class, with several newcomers who will probably have enough juice to clear 5% (Felix, Marin, McCann, Pedroia).  So:  does Wright fall off the ballot on his second go-around after just clearing the hurdle last time?  Is there any way he makes headway towards a 10-year run (ala Pettitte)?

Jay Jaffe: 6.2% doesn’t leave Wright a lot of wiggle room but it wouldn’t surprise me if he sticks around for at least another year while McCann and Martin fall short of 5% despite my best efforts to FRAME their cases (see what I did there?). That said I don’t think his case is long enough for him to linger the way Pettitte has, because the latter has some aspects of his resumé (256 wins, massive postseason credentials and rings) that Wright does not. Also the HGH drawback, but longevity drives candidacies more than high-peak/short career does

Lance: In a world where Wagner doesn’t get elected this time, is he a shoo in for the 2026 Contemporary Committee slot?  Or is the makeup of the voters more likely to give us Jeff Kent and Don Mattingly?

Jay Jaffe: Bonds, Clemens and Schilling went from the BBWAA to Era Committee ballots without interruption, but the Hall now has a rule in place preventing other candidates from doing the same, so if Wagner falls short this year (no pun intended), he would have to wait until the 2029 Contemporary ballot to be considered again. Which would suck.

Jay Jaffe: Some significant injuries, surprising underperformances, and an attempt to re-create the 2021 recipe for picking up outfielders off the scrapheap has left the Braves in a more precarious position than they’ve been for most of the year.

RookieWookie: With 2+ months to go in the season, Gerrit Cole is going to have to show us something if he thinks he can opt out of the last 4/144 of his contract, right? Not sure how many takers there would be on guaranteeing him $150mm at this point given age/health concerns?

Jay Jaffe: In the end I strongly suspect that his opting out will be a precursor to a restructured deal that lowers his AAV and helps the Yankees a bit with regards to their CBT situation

Will: Who do you like for ROY at this point and why?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know yet. There do seem to be a lot more candidates in the NL. Skenes, Shota, Merrill, Winn… I think Yamamoto’s injury probably rules him out. Gil, Miller, Cowser, Wells in the AL. I don’t see enough separation yet to have a real favorite in either league, so we’ll see how these guys do down the stretch.

By the end of it, Skenes may have the bulk to be the clear favorite in the NL.

Daniel: Does it give you just a little bit of pause to discuss Griffey ‘s career as a disappointing outcome for Trout? I guess it speaks to Trout’s greatness. But it’s odd to me that anyone would be expected to be a top 5 player. Those are the outliers among outliers.

Jay Jaffe: It’s not so much that Griffey’s career is a disappointing outcome, it’s that the resemblance between the shapes of Trout and Griffey’s careers to this point implies that we’re not going to see a whole lot more greatness from Trout. I hope we’re wrong about that.

I think we forget how remarkable Griffey’s career was. Until he came along, there wasn’t a single overall #1 pick who made the Hall of Fame. Nobody had lived up to those expectations. Griffey did it, then Chipper and Mauer (A-Rod did it too, but… ). You’d take that career from any 1/1 pick. That Trout surpassed that to put himself in the conversation alongside the likes of Mays and Bonds, even for a short time, is incredible too.

Butter Brickle: How are the parallels between Mike Trout and Andruw Jones as far as  center fielders whose productivity dropped off markedly in their 30s (for whatever reasons)

Jay Jaffe: Right now there’s a superficial resemblance, in that Jones had 58.0 bWAR through age 29, 4.7 after, but Trout is at 76.3/10.0 so he’s already doubled the 30s production and is still far above league average and under contract, so he’ll get to keep going.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: and based on a table I created for The Cooperstown Casebook

Matt: Roughly how many wins will losing Westy cost the Os?

Jay Jaffe: maybe zero if either Holliday or Mayo clicks upon getting some playing time.

Jason: From a team building perspective, would you agree that the Diamondbacks seem set up for success? Good core of young, productive players surrounded by a few key veterans.

Jay Jaffe: They’re in a decent place but I’m absolutely worried about Carroll, and I haven’t really seen them produce the kind of starting pitching they’re going to need to move off the Wild Card fringe.

wheelhouse: you think jazz sticks at 3B going forward?

Jay Jaffe: Not sure yet, but I think this winter the Yankees will be able to use his flexibility when planning what to once Gleyber Torres reaches free agency.

Jay Jaffe: Good lord do they need to move on from Torres

Guardcore Clevelander: Fun fact, since Danny Jansen got traded to the Red Sox and is likely to play in the August 26th rematch of the rain-postponed June 26th game (where he played for the Blue Jays at the time), so he may end up in the box score on both teams at once.

Jay Jaffe: With apologies to the headaches this is going to cause Sean Forman, I hope we see this.

Daniel: Do you get vibes from George Kirby that his career could end up looking special? Not just in terms of value but also traits? Would his uniqueness, in your mind, augment his chances of ending up with more historical signfiicance?

Jay Jaffe: People who know a lot more about pitching than I do like his stuff a lot (which isn’t to say that I don’t). But in the end the significance is going to come from him sticking around and remaining very productive, regardless of how he gets there. Those guys are in very short supply right now.

Guardcore Clevelander: How far off is Ketel Marte from a potential HoF invite post-career? I recognize that he’s a clear level below the Ramirez’s and Lindors of similar age, but his best production has been jaw dropping each time it happens.

Jay Jaffe: I like him as a player but Hall-wise he’s got 30.2 career bWAR and a 29.6-WAR seven-year peak, with two seasons of 5.0 WAR or better including this one, plus a 4.9. He’s going to need several All-Star seasons in his 30s to emerge as a real candidate.

Guest: Witt or Elly will have a better career?  Witt obviously is having a better year, but Elly’s age 22 season is blowing the doors off Witt’s age 22 season.

Jay Jaffe: Witt, whose defensive metrics have improved so much at shortstop that I have little doubt he can stick there for awhile. I’m less sure about Elly yet on that front, for as entertaining a player as he is.

btownfritz: What kind of contract do you see Soto signing?

Jay Jaffe: Something in the $47-48 million AAV range (after deferrals) to take over #1 in that department. Maybe 11/$517M with some bells and whistles (opt-outs, options)

Biff: Any chance that Marte or Lindor topple Ohtani for MVP?  Ohtani has a large WAR lead, but, as good as he is, is he good enough to win without playing a defensive position while Lindor and Marte both play up-the-middle positions and have single-handedly kept their teams in contention.

Jay Jaffe: I’m a huge Lindor fan who caught hell from the idioterati for a piece in late 2022 suggesting he was having an MVP-caliber season. He’s having a very similar season offensively to what he’s done in each of the past two seasons, and those amounted to two 9th-place finishes in the voting, so I don’t see what’s going to put him ahead of Ohtani, who without playing defense has the higher WAR than either of them.

Tike Mrout: A question I’ve always had about JAWS, Jay: Why 7 years for the peak? Is it just to match as closely as possible the historical norms of HOF voting? And have you tested how sensitive the results are to changing to 6 or 8 years etc?

Jay Jaffe: once upon a time, when JAWS was based on Baseball Prospectus’ WARP, I tested a few different iterations and found that 7 years worked better than 6 or 8 or 10. I’ve stuck with it in part because it took nearly a decade for some people to get that I wasn’t still using my original definition of peak, which was best 5 consecutive years.

Connor Norby: This dude is not good enough to play 2B for the post-deadline Marlins???

Jay Jaffe: or they’re messing with his service time or just keeping him away from their current garbage fire.

Matt VW: Where would you have Wilyer Abreu on an AL ROY ballot?

Jay Jaffe: IIRC Rookie of the Year ballots are 5 deep. He’d be in contention for my top 5 in the AL but if I drew it up today I’m not sure he’d be on it. I’m not sure he *wouldn’t* be on it, either.

David: Thoughts on who’s leading the AL West on September 1 (and at the end of the year)? Astros seem to be cooling off and the Mariners schedule looks brutal.

Jay Jaffe: To paraphrase what was said about the 1944 World Series, I don’t see how anybody can win the division. Every time I think the Astros are dead due to their injuries, they come back, and every time I write off the Mariners, they find a way to stick around. FWIW the strength-of-schedule measure in our Playoff Odds gives the Astros only a three-point edge (.499 HOU, .502 SEA)

Ben: Austin Wells, top 5 catcher in baseball?? Expected stats seem to support but it is a bit remarkable he’s outperformed his 2023 MiLB performance at the big league level

Jay Jaffe: He’s made some great strides defensively from what I understand (I’m not the prospect guy), and his actual production is catching up to his Statcast-expected production. In a year where two of the five best catchers from recent years (Realmuto and Contreras) have missed significant time due to injuries, he’s 3rd in WAR among that group, and in far less playing time than anyone else in the top 7. It will be interesting to see whether he can sustain that, and it helps that the Yankees have another productive catcher to pair him with in Trevino

Edward: Off the top of your head, 10 biggest Hall snubs of the post-integration era (excluding those on ballot)?  Allen, Munson, Whitaker, Grinch, Keith, Cone, Hershiser, Stieb, Johan, Lofton?  Other than Allen, who’s most likely to make it through the Committee process?  (As a baseball lifer, would love to see Keith, but he seems to get lost behind Mattingly depsite the JAWS/WAR differential.)

Jay Jaffe: you’d have to put Bonds and Clemens among the snubs, and I guess maybe Schilling until you consider the damage he’s inflicted upon his candidacy. I’d probably consider Kevin Brown and Dwight Evans for the top 10 too. Allen, Grich, Whitaker, Munson, Hernandez… It’s hard to pare the list to 10.

sgb523: Are some positions overvalued by WAR such as ss and 2b?

Jay Jaffe: It would be easy to say, “nope, they’re all perfectly valued” and call it a day, but you know what, if Tom Tango and Sean Forman and Sean Smith and others involved in the builds of WAR have thought about this and come out where they’ve come out, with their positional adjustments as high as they are, I don’t I have the chops to prove them wrong, and I am guessing you don’t either.

AL Central Casting: Is the Twins’ offense being overlooked? Due to injuries – mostly those to Royce Lewis – nobody really stands out on the leaderboards, but the unit as a whole is extremely productive.

Jay Jaffe: Agreed. Most of their best hitters by rate stats (Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Miranda) have missed substantial time but overall they’re pretty good.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, still plenty of good questions in the queue but I’ve got to mosey on down the road. Thanks for stopping by! No chat from me next week as I will be on vacation.