The MLB season is nearly at an end and the playoffs are in sight. But what is not at an end is this wonderful weekly Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players post!
So welcome back and take a few minutes to read why I think JJ Bleday is an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.
Bleday was the SEC Player of the Year in 2019 and was a Golden Spikes finalist for the best college player of the year. Drafted by the Marlins as the fourth overall pick of the 2019 draft, Bleday never really found his footing in the organization and was traded to Oakland ahead of the 2023 season for A.J. Puk.
With a resume of ups-and-downs in the minors and now being 26 years old, I can understand if you think I am crazy to think that Bleday is an up-and-coming dynasty player. I understand that argument. I mean he is 26! That is usually past the point for a player selected 4th overall to still be trying to establish himself.
However, for some players, the adjustment from college to the minors to the majors can take longer than expected. I believe that Bleday is one of those players.
So let’s take a dive into his performance and why he has turned his career around with the Athletics this season.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | LEVEL | G | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-19 | NCAA | 161 | 33 | 109 | 3 | .326 | .446 | .553 |
| 2019-23 | Minors | 261 | 43 | 148 | 7 | .238 | .349 | .438 |
| 2022 | Miami | 65 | 5 | 16 | 4 | .167 | .277 | .309 |
| 2023 | Oakland | 82 | 10 | 27 | 5 | .195 | .310 | .356 |
| 2024 | Oakland | 150 | 20 | 56 | 2 | .246 | .328 | .451 |
It has been somewhat surprising to see JJ Bleday take so long to establish himself on the major league level. This is a player who had a career slash line of .326/.446/.553 at Vanderbilt. As a junior in 2019, he slashed .347/.465/.701 with 27 homers and 72 RBI in 71 games to lead Vanderbilt to the College World Series title. To go along with those numbers was a 17.6 BB% and a 16.7 K%.
No one laughed at the Marlins for selecting JJ Bleday, and after signing for $6.67 million, he was assigned to High-A Jupiter. His pro debut wasn’t great, but it wasn’t horrible as he slashed .257/.311/.379 with three homers and 19 RBI 38 games.
With the 2019 season and the COVID behind him, there were high expectations for Bleday entering the 2021 season. Baseball America had him ranked as the 43rd best prospect while MLB ranked him 20th and Baseball Prospectus at 33rd.
Not Meeting Expectations
But the talent JJ Bleday had shown at Vanderbilt did not materialize in the minors. In 2021 at Double-A, he slashed .212/.323/.373 with 12 homers and 54 RBI in 110 games. He also had a 21.6% strikeout rate. Despite his struggles in Double-A, the Marlins assigned Bleday to Triple-A to start the 2022 season, yet there was no improvement.
In 85 games he slashed .229/.365/.470 with a 27% strikeout rate. The one good number was the 20 homers he hit, showing he can still hit for power. He also had a 16% walk rate, showing he had an understanding of the strike zone.
Despite his struggles to be a consistent hitter, the Marlins promoted Bleday in July. His first taste of the majors did not go well. In 65 games with the Marlins, he had only five homers and 16 RBI while slashing .167/.277/.309. Additionally, he had a strikeout rate of 28.2 percent.
Chance to Start Over
During the offseason, the Marlins had seen enough of JJ Bleday and traded him to Oakland for Puk.
The move across the country seemed to immediately help Bleday. Starting the year at Triple-A Las Vegas, the left-handed hitter slashed .333/.444/.667 with eight homers and 23 RBI in 28 games in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His strikeout rate was only 13.5% while his walk rate was a healthy 17%. The A’s were impressed with what they saw from Bleday and promoted him in May.
However, as was the case in Miami, Bleday didn’t do well with the Athletics at the MLB level. In 82 games he slashed .195/.310/.356 with a 24% strikeout rate. If there was something for Bleday to hang his hat on, it was the fact he hit 10 homers and drove in 27 runs in those 82 games – basically equaling a 20-homer season.
Finally Settling In
| SPLIT | G | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 1st Half | 96 | 11 | 32 | 0 | 41 | 75 | .230 | .313 | .420 |
| 2nd Half | 54 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 44 | .275 | .355 | .508 |
Needing to see if they were going to get any return on their investment in Bleday, the A’s handed Bleday the center field job this season. The move has paid off, though not immediately. During the first half of this season, Bledy was sitting on a slash line of .230/.313/.420. Not eye-popping numbers, but much better than at any other time in his career.
In addition to the better slash line was the fact his strikeout rate had fallen to 19% while he had a solid 10% walk rate.
Since the All-Star Break, Bleday has been an above average player. In only 54 games he has nine homers and 24 RBI with a .275/.355/.508 slash line. His strikeout rate has basically remained the same (20%) as has his walk rate (10.6%). Overall for the year, he has an OPS+ of 124 and an oWar of 4.2. That is pretty solid.
Improvement Across the Board
While his overall numbers weren’t showing improvement since he debuted in 2022, there has been actual improvement each season. His strikeout rate has fallen from 28.2% to 23.8% to 19.6% this season. His average EV has gone from 86.6 mph to 88.3 mph this season and the Hard Hit% has gone from 33.8% to 36.2%.
In the meantime, his ISO has increased from .142 in 2022 to .205 this year and his home run percentage has increased from 2.1% to 3.3%. When you look at his career stats above, you can see how his slash line has improved each and every season. The increases have not been huge, but they have been steady and point to a player who has finally made the needed adjustments at this level to succeed.
And while his home run total is not game changing, he currently has 43 doubles this season. Pair that with his 20 homers and it is easy to see why his slugging percentage has increased by nearly 100 points compared to last year. Bleday has the tools to hit for both average and power, it has just taken a while for him to tap into both on a consistent basis.
With the playoffs now going on, adding Bleday now may not be possible as free agency could be closed and trades are certainly not allowed. But Bleday could be a good player to target this offseason via trade or as a free agent once your league allows them to be added. The cost to trade for him will likely not be very high as he is currently rostered in only 31% of Yahoo leagues and 21% of ESPN leagues. So there are not a lot of people who have jumped on the Bleday hype train yet.
But you should. I believe you will be happy if you do.
