Niko Kavadas had recently been named Boston’s Minor League Player of the Year when he was first featured here at FanGraphs in November 2022. Two years later, he’s now playing for the Los Angeles Angels, after the Red Sox traded him at this summer’s deadline as part of a five-player swap. Power and patience are his calling cards. Kavadas was slashing .281/.424/.551 with 17 home runs in Triple-A at the time he was dealt, and while he subsequently struggled after receiving his first call-up — a 77 wRC+ and 38.7% strikeout rate over 106 plate appearances — he did go deep four times.
The 26-year-old first baseman very much remains a work in progress, as evidenced by his having spent the last month-plus playing in the Arizona Fall League. And while assessing progress in an extreme hitter-friendly environment can be tricky, he nonetheless crushed the ball during his time in the desert. Kavadas was named the AFL’s Offensive Player of the Year after slashing .329/.462/.700 with 13 extra-base hits, including six home runs, over 91 plate appearances. We’ll get to why he was there in a moment.
When I caught up to Kavadas prior to a Fall League game in October, the first thing I wanted to know was how the present-day iteration compares to the hitter I’d spoken to 25 months earlier.
“At my core, I think I’ll always be the same guy,” Kavadas said. “Since then, I’ve tried to grab some of the low-hanging fruit and address some of the swing-and-miss issues. I’ve also tried to get on top of the ball a little more, which is something I’ve done a better job of. But I’m always going to be a stocky, left-handed guy who wants to hit the ball hard, wants to hit the ball in the air, wants to swing at strikes, draw walks, and do damage when the ball is over the heart [of the plate].”
There is no disputing his ability to do damage. Kavadas has light-tower power, which comes courtesy of a 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. (His weight has ranged from 220 to 250 during his time in pro ball.) Given his size and strength, he doesn’t need to take an especially healthy hack in order to juice a baseball.
“That’s a big part of it, understanding that I don’t need to max out how hard I’m swinging the bat,” Kavadas said of the ongoing efforts to improve his contact rate. “For me, it’s more about the amount of times I can make contact.”
Chasing hasn’t been the issue. Kavadas swung at just 18.3% of pitches out of the strike zone after his call-up, a number roughly in line with what he’d done down on the farm. He’s always been one to draw his walks; an 11th-round pick in 2021 out of Notre Dame, Kavadas had a .415 OBP in college and a .410 OBP in the minors. Rather, one of Kavadas’ biggest problems has been leaving the bat on his shoulder when pitches are in the strike zone. His Z-swing% was 57.7%, one of the lowest rates in the majors. In the minors, the percentage had been lower still.
“I don’t swing at too many balls; I take too many strikes,” Kavadas said. “That’s one of the reasons I’m here [in the Arizona Fall League]. I’m out here trying to get my swing off on 1-0 breaking balls, 2-1 breaking balls, and not just taking them. Just because I’m in a leverage count doesn’t mean that I can’t swing at spin. In years past, I’ve taken those — even if it’s not good spin — and let pitchers get back into the count. So swinging at more strikes is a goal. If my chase rate ticks up a little bit, I’m okay with that. The value of a swing outweighs the value of a take.”
Which brings us back to his not needing to swing hard in order to pulverize baseballs. The Red Sox revamped their hitting development program this past season, with increasing bat speed a point of emphasis. As Kavadis put it, “They definitely wanted to push guys to swing the bat faster. I think that was their no. 1 priority.”
It was anything but a priority for Kavadas. While he did occasionally do some of the bat-speed training, his goal was to make more contact, and he didn’t feel that increased bat speed would help him do so. “What I need is less intent, not trying to swing the bat faster,” he reiterated. “Again, with my strength I don’t need to.”
Moonshots are the South Bend, Indiana native’s M.O., and I’ve seen some of them firsthand. One that he hit high over the right-field foul pole in Double-A Portland two summers ago — it was actually ruled foul — was especially majestic. Reminded of the blast in our recent conversation, Kavadas insisted that it had been fair, which it very well might have been. If memory serves correct, the distance mentioned in the Hadlock Field press box that night was 440-something feet.
As for the power he displayed upon arriving in Anaheim, Statcast numbers help tell the story. One of the four home runs he hit had an exit velocity of 107.9 mph and traveled 404 feet, while another registered at 103.8 mph and 408 feet.
Not that he is all that concerned about the readings and distances.
“How far they go and how hard they’re hit isn’t important to me,” claimed Kavadas. “How often they ask ‘How hard?’ or ‘How far?’ is rare. What they ask is, ‘How many?’”
Needless to say, increasing the amount of contact he makes would only increase his “How many.” Moreover, it would greatly increase his chances of sticking in the big leagues. Lacking the defensive skills of a Joey Gallo, Kavadas realistically can’t afford to continue striking out at such a high rate (32.5% as a professional) if he hopes to have success at baseball’s highest level. As he is well aware, the degree to which his bat-to-ball skills can be improved will go a long way toward determining his future.
