Thirteen weeks down, lucky number thirteen. Fitting then that we will open today by talking about “win luck”. Now, Rudy will tell you that Wins are actually predictable as shown by his Ombotsman. While the data and the bots may tell you this, as a human, it still seems like they are luck-based, do they not? There’s no doubt it takes some luck to win a fantasy baseball league. Injury luck is probably the biggest factor in winning a league. As good a manager as we think we are, if your number one pick goes down for the year, you’re going to be at a disadvantage. That’s just common sense. “Win luck” is another area that is seemingly out of our control. Let’s face it, wins are brutal. I’m a big proponent of the mantra, “Make your own luck” and I certainly think that can be applied to “win luck”. “Win luck” is a term often tossed around to describe a team that is raking in the wins and/or a team that can’t seem to buy a win. Can you make your own luck in regard to wins? Of course, you can. You can stream those valuable middle relievers, especially the ones that frequently work multiple innings in the middle of games (Reed Garrett, perhaps). When a lead change occurs, these relievers are typically the benefactors. It’s no guarantee of course, but it can’t hurt your luck any. There are other ways to increase your win luck too. Let’s take a look at another big one as well as who is getting lucky this week in the week that was, week 13.
Another nice way to increase your win luck is to borrow a tip from the DFS side of the fantasy baseball landscape and utilize the Vegas odds. I know not everyone dabbles in DFS waters, but Vegas is a good companion there and in your season-long leagues. Here’s how to use it. First, find yourself a website that lists all the Vegas consensus odds for the day. There are several out there, but I typically run with THIS ONE. Go ahead and bookmark that for future reference. If you aren’t familiar with Vegas terminology, you want to look at the “Money Line” which is the number greater than 100 with either a “+” or a “-” in front of it. This shows you how much you would have to bet on a team to win $100 (in the case of the negative amount) or how much you would win if you bet $100 on a team (in the case of the positive amount). The negative value indicates the favorite. So, if a team is a -140 favorite, you would need to bet $140 on them to win $100. If a team is +140, if you bet $100 on them, you would win $140. You can start to see where this might come in handy. Anything over about -140 is pretty good. Take a look at those odds, check to make sure the over/under (run total) for the game isn’t too huge, use some common sense, or at least some risk/reward management, and stream away. If you’re a really savvy roto player, you’ve purchased access to the Streamonator where you can filter by day and sort by wins. There you would see that Tyler Anderson (LAA) is the player with the best shot at a win today that is available in some league. Chasing wins may seem to some like a fool’s errand, but you can take a couple of steps to make your own luck.
Here are the best (“luckiest”) and worst (“unluckiest”) teams in the RCL universe in terms of win % (Wins/IP * 100):
| Team | RCL | W | IP | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cubbiehead | RCL 31 | 63 | 669.1 | 9.4156 |
| Coolwhip | Perts League | 63 | 684.2 | 9.2078 |
| The Bananas | CrabArmy | 60 | 652 | 9.2025 |
| Kitten Mittens | ECFBL | 55 | 608.2 | 9.0431 |
| My Balls Are Juiced | RCL 22 | 52 | 586 | 8.8737 |
| Great Stott | RCL 14 | 45 | 507.2 | 8.8722 |
| BillyAngel | FCL | 57 | 645.2 | 8.8345 |
| The Sultan | RCL 33 | 64 | 725.1 | 8.8264 |
| mmdan112 | RCL 29 | 46 | 521.2 | 8.8258 |
Cubbiehead is leading the charge in win luck so far with 63 wins in 669.1 IP, good for a 9.42 win%. Our very own, Coolwhip is right behind him with 63 Wins in 684.2 IP, a 9.21 win %. Great Stott and mmdan112 need to pick up the IP pace in order to make sure they hit the 1400 threshold, or close to it. Ideally, teams should be around 600+ IP right now.
Thanks to VinWins for pulling the win percentage numbers this week!
How’s your win luck been this year? Join me in the comments to complain!
Each week we’ll peek in at our resident ‘perts to see who is laying claim to best “expert” RCLer in the land. We’ll take notes, check the standings and generally stalk them. The heading is also hyperlink, so feel free to follow along as we go.
Mike C continued to hold the line in Perts this week, extending his lead to 5.5 points as he starts to pull away from the pack. Where we were all bunched up a few weeks ago, some clear front runners are emerging with Mike C and Son both with 80 points or more. Son gained four points this week to reach the 80 mark, the most points gained by any team. Going the other way this week was Grey, who lost 6.5 points and fell below 60 for the first time since week five.
Each week we’ll also take a look at the top ten overall standings in our other Razzball sponsored league, the RazzSlam. This is our NFBC Best Ball league with managers from all across the industry, from content providers to fans and readers just like you.
There was some chatter in the Razzball writer’s chat this week about when the cutline is happening. If none of us know, I assume most of you don’t either. There are two scoring periods left. After scoring period 15, the top five from each league move on, the top two advance to the championship tier, the next three move on to the consolation tier, and everyone else can stop caring. So, now is the time to give the team a good pep talk, a slap on the butt, and some extra sunflower seeds.
Eric Erhardt held his spot at the top of the Razzslam leaderboard, and did so in style, scoring the most points (794) of any other team this week. The rest of the top ten is similar, with Hammerman and Ariel Cohen falling out to make room for Yancy Eaton and Rick Graham.
TRADES
All the trades that have gone down in the past week. Public ridicule is not only allowed, but encouraged.
| DATE | LEAGUE | DETAILS |
|---|---|---|
| 6/22/2024 | RCL 4 |
The Sultan traded Kylke Schwarber to Great Stott! for Will Smith (C) |
| 6/22/2024 | RCL 24 |
Science, Bitch! traded Ben Rice to tberkman for Vinnie Pasquantino |
Just two little trades this week, nothing to write home about. I always love when a fresh waiver wire add gets traded right away. I missed the boat on all Uncle Ben Rice and I could see making a trade if I needed a catcher.
WEEKLY LEADERS
The best of the best from the week that was.
R – 77 – Moodlight Graham (RCL 12)
HR –24 – Dunphy’s Joint Venture (COUGS R US) & DFresh (RCL 20)
RBIs – 67 – The Lineup Builder (Perts League)
SB – 17 – tothba (CRAB ARMY) & TheDirtyWatermelon (RCL 8)
AVG – .340 – David23 (RCL 6)
K – 87 – JamesAas (RCL 33)
W – 8 – 5 Teams Tied
SV – 9 – 9 Teams Tied
ERA (Min. 40 IP) – 1.13 – Laura Holt (RCL 13) (in 40 IP)
WHIP (Min. 40 IP) – 0.596 – Ted’s Splendid Splinters (RCl 13) (in 55.1 IP)
We CRUSHED the runs record by ten runs this week and also set a new high mark in HRs. In fact, Moonlight Graham almost topped the best week ever for runs (79). I knew it was going to be a big offensive week when I had a manager DM me asking what the record was and saw one of my teams had 21 dingers. Interestingly, in a week of big offense, we also set a new low in WHIP, with 0.596 in 55.1 IP! Some darn good pitching in RCL 13 this week, somehow avoiding all the offense.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Our weekly shout out to the team that killed it the previous week.
Team: Malawi Kings
League: RCL 16
Stats: AVG: .311, R: 60, HR: 22, RBI: 61, SB: 5
IP: 72.1, ERA: 2.49, WHIP: 0.982, K: 70, W: 5, SV: 2
Summary: Another team who got all the offense and managed to avoid all the terrible pitching. How do you do that? The big week moved the Kings from second to first in RCL 16. King Tuck might be on the IL for the Kings, but King Ohtani did plenty to make up for it, showing the league why they should not have let the Kings draft him at 18th overall. Ohtani hit .458 with 4 home runs and chipped in a steal. He also scored 8 runs and drove in 11. Bryan De La Cruz hit 3 homers and 7 others added a pair. On the pitching side, Cristopher Sanchez pitched 14 stellar innings for 2 Wins and ratios of 0.64/0.714. Tanner Bibee (6 IP/12 Ks) and Tobias Myers (6.1 IP/6 Ks) each allowed 0 runs and earned a win. Carlos Estevez recorded 2 saves. An amazing week for the Kings! Nice work!
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