PwC’s latest “Pulse Survey” showed that 61 percent of executives polled said they expect to see the U.S. economy fall into a recession over the next six months. This is up from 49 percent in the June report. The jump occurred despite the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut and data showing falling inflation.
“What may be going on?” asked the report’s authors. “For one, forecasts and U.S. macroeconomic data have been all over the map. For example, the Labor Department’s August jobs report was weaker than expected while September’s report came in much higher than expected. The Fed’s September Beige Book showed contracting economic activity in manufacturing and reduced home sales. Meanwhile, real gross domestic product increased at a 3 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PwC shift in sentiment may also be methodological. “Most executives responded to our survey before the September Federal Open Market Committee decision to lower interest rates,” the report’s authors acknowledged.
PwC said the unfavorable outlook isn’t necessarily linked to either of the presidential candidates. “When it comes to policy risks, executives cite U.S. economic policy as the biggest risk under either candidate,” the report noted. “Moreover, executives are wary about key policies from both candidates. Seventy-five percent agree or strongly agree that a 10 percent universal tariff on imports (as proposed by Trump) would significantly hinder their growth, and 75 percent agree or strongly agree that they would significantly reduce their domestic investments if there were a U.S. corporate tax rate of 28 percent (as proposed by Harris).”
The report’s authors said the uncertainty and volatility is making is difficult for the C-suite to lead their companies. “Geopolitical tensions, concerns about a slowing labor market, uncertainty about the election, a distracted electorate and consumers still squeezed by higher costs are contributing,” PwC said. And there are other risks and concerns challenging business leaders.
PwC said cyber threats continue to top the list of business risks. “Although executives are worried about other factors — such as profit pressure, geopolitical tensions, new legal and reputational risks related to artificial intelligence — cyber threats remain the top business risks, cited as a moderate or serious risk by 75 percent of executives in our survey,” the company said adding that other concerns include protectionist policies, which executives said will make companies less competitive.
“Seventy-one percent of executives say that trade and tax policies will hurt U.S. competitiveness regardless of who becomes president,” PwC said. “There are some differences though. Executives see higher taxes and climate as policy risks under Harris, trade and foreign relations as policy risks under Trump.”
