As another wild and wacky season of fantasy baseball comes closer to its inevitable end, we’ll take another swim away from the deep end of the pool, and spend this last week or two reflecting from more of a big-picture perspective. I for one feel like starting pitching has been more unpredictable than ever this season (which, granted, is probably something I say every year). I realized that with a few exceptions — namely, guys that have either really helped or really hurt my teams over the last couple of months — I didn’t have a great feel for which starters have put together particularly solid second halves. So, that’s what we’ll focus on this week: a look at the top ten starting pitchers since the All Star Break, based on 5×5 roto value according to fantrax. While a great second half is certainly not a guarantee of a great next season, I think it’s worthwhile knowing who ended strong, particularly when it comes to players who may be a little more under the radar heading in to 2025 as we evaluate and ponder rankings over the offseason. I also was curious to see how many surprises there were on this list, who had the most improvement (which may reflect positive adjustments a pitcher made that will hopefully carry into 2025), as well as which pitchers were basically great from start to finish.
#1. Tarik Skubal. So turns out Skubal has been the number one pitcher in the second half of the season after being the number two pitcher in the first half. By definition, that’s just about as good as it gets, and it will be interesting to see just how high his ADP is next year. I can’t imagine a format where I’ll draft him at that price, so I guess I’ll just be glad he’s likely to help me to a money finish in the one league where I was able to grab him this year.
#2. Framber Valdez. Valdez checked in as SP #46 before the break, so he is one of the most improved players on this list. I rostered him in several leagues last year but faded him this year since he always seemed so inconsistent. I guess that’s reflected in his first vs. second half ranking, but when you add it all together, it’s already making me think that I should re-open my mind in terms of his value heading into next year.
#3. Zack Wheeler. Speaking of consistency, Wheeler was #4 in half number one, so just a solid pick all around who ended up being way more valuable than any of 2024’s sexier starting pitcher picks not named Skubal. Since it also seems like he carries a vibe of boringness to him, he could actually end up as a relative value pick again in 2025 when we see how rankings fall into place.
#4 Pablo Lopez. Lopez is one of the pitchers on this list where a mid-season fantasy trade may have been a league-winner for the receiving team and a soul-crusher for the team that gave him away. I’ve been a fan for a long time, since he was on my minor league roster of an NL-only team years ago, but he was one of those guys I was targeting but somehow didn’t end up rostering this year. I guess his price just got a bit higher than I expected or wanted to pay this past spring. I knew he’d been pitching well but didn’t realize just how much better he’s been of late, and I’m already thinking he may be moving up a bit on my yet-to-be-composed future draft rankings.
#5. Jose Berrios. Berrios is the first name on this list that wasn’t being looked at as a #1 or #2 fantasy starter going in to the season. For me, an even bigger surprise than his second half ranking is the fact that he was #41 in the first half. No, that’s not great, but I thought it was much, much worse given the run(s) of horrible pitching he had this year. I find him frustratingly enigmatic and even maddening to analyze both in terms of looking at his numbers as well as just plain watching him pitch… but I still have to figure out if that means I’ll be buying in next year if the price is right, or avoiding him entirely to save the headache.
#6. Shota Imanaga. It’s probably wishful thinking, but here’s a guy that I am really hoping will be a decent deal next year. Tenth most valuable starter in the first half, sixth in the second… it all adds up to an incredibly helpful season from a fantasy perspective. I basically avoided him this year — due to my fear of the unknown, I guess — but that clearly proved to be a significant error in judgment.
#7. Dylan Cease. Cease is a player who felt utterly overrated heading in to 2024 in my opinion, but instead ended up giving you just what you paid for. He checked in as SP #12 in the first half, so it was a great year overall. He won’t be cheap next year, but as this list is reminding me, often good things aren’t.
#8. Sean Manaea. I can’t remember what random little tidbit I read about Manaea that convinced me to take a flier on him in my last two drafts of this season, but I’m now grateful to whomever wrote it. After a lackluster first half (#53 SP overall), Manaea turned it on in a big way and has simply been one of the better pitchers in baseball these last few months. I trust the Mets announcers more than just about anyone when it comes to simple but effective player analysis, and their faith in the midseason adjustments Manaea made has me tentatively buying in come 2025.
#9. Michael Wacha. Wacha has been a veritable force of late, after a worse-than-I-remembered first half where he ranked as SP #73. Don’t look now, but 2024 will make three years in a row where Wacha was really, really good over the course of the season as a whole. Will he get any real mixed-league respect next year? And if he does, will those that draft him be disappointed? Did he already reach his peak and is he now headed down the other side of the mountain? Hard to say, but unless his price is much higher than I expect it to be, I’ll probably have at least a couple shares based off of the good vibes from this season alone.
#10 Carlos Rodon. Sigh, another pitcher I avoided completely because of my past disappointment with him as well as just plain trying to avoid injury risk. First half SP#22, so another guy who was helpful in just about any format from beginning to end this season. Will I buy in next year? That’s hard to say, and he may be one of the players whose ADP I am particularly interested in paying attention to.
Honorable mentions 11-15: Blake Snell, Cole Ragans, Chris Sale (who, if he’d had his performance from Thursday — another solid game that included his 18th win — included in the above rankings, might have inched into the top 10), Michael King, Jack Flaherty.
Thanks for reading and best of luck to all of you still fighting for league titles and money spots in your leagues!
