Hey Razzfaithful, back in the saddle after returning from a family vacation. With renewed clarity and a sunburn, I’m ready to take on a midseason review of my sleepers and deep dives from the early going. Call it a furthering need for authenticity. I do my best to practice this with my work and family, why would I not do it here as well. And much like last year, I had a vision of St. Willink before me. He challenged me to take full ownership of my life and own all my wins and losses. Especially the losses. Nothing is someone else’s fault. Variance and regression are part of the process, just ask Reid Detmers!
I am responsible for all my takes, and all my taeks. Whether they are good or bad… I am the captain of my ship. I am a capable and willful person that can tilt the scale; if I fail, I need to learn from it and better myself. If I succeed, I need to learn from that and replicate it. Like last year, I’ll be reviewing all my deep dives from the preseason through the end of April. Here. We. Go.
The Cream
Since I’m a delicate flower, I want to talk about the positives first. Feel free to leave me glowing praise in the comments about how awesome my deep dives are, and that they have been an indispensable resource for you to smite your foes and lead you onward to victory.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – It’s always interesting how the elite talent from the NPB adjusts to the MLB. His command has been exactly as advertised and his turbo splitter has neutralized batters to the tune of a .188 AVG allowing him to maintain a +7 run value with his fastball that he throws over 50% of the time. Simply put, that’s good. In mid-May he started to utilize his slider as I predicted against RHB and that gave him the leverage he was looking for to tunnel with his heavily-favored fastball. Though on the shelf at the moment with a rotator cuff strain, Yamamoto’s line since that start in Korea (which I sat him for myself) has been 73 IP, 6-1, 2.32 ERA, 10.11 K/9, and 1.97 BB/9.
Aside from some lost innings that puts him right in line with my projection in which I stated, “I see him achieving something in the range of 170 IP in his first full season on an MLB pitching schedule and posting a pitching line around 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 with (dare I say) a chance for more. Earned runs are always the hardest to predict, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he posted a sub-3 line with his track record.” You can read the full breakdown of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, here.
Tyler O’Neill – Captain Canada has a special place in my heart, what can I say? He’s fun to watch. He came out of the gate burning with the heat of a thousand dying stars fully embracing the outfielder baptism of leaving the confines Busch Stadium ready of join the ranks of those that fled the STL before him. In the month of April, O’Neill blasted 9 HR while hitting .320. Slowed by an injury, he struggled through May, and then returned to form (with some natural regression) and finished June with 5 HR and a .290 AVG.
In my breakdown, I compared him favorably to other Righty sluggers that have passed through Fenway before him like Hunter Renfroe and specifically Adam Duvall… only TON possesses one thing they did not, plate discipline. At the close of my breakdown I said, “Given 550 AB, It is not unreasonable to see him achieve something to the tune of 25/12/.260 and 150 counters with a chance for more. At that price, I’m buying all day for the chance at a big re-breakout.” Well, through 210 ABs in the first half, he’s got a line of 16/1/.252 and looks well-positioned to meet those expectations minus the stolen bases. You can read the deep dive, here.
Shota Imanaga – It’s always nice to feel like you are one of the early adopters. I saw almost no hype around Shota in the offseason despite some really stellar numbers in Japan and being the starter tabbed to face USA in the WBC Final. In my breakdown, I highlighted his unique advantages saying, “His four-seam fastball boasts a ridiculous amount of induced vertical break (IVB), or rise, that has measured around 20 inches during the WBC with an elite spin rate. That would put him in the running for the top 5-7% among MLB pitchers… MLB has not seen a left-handed pitcher with a good splitter in quite some time. He is unique. That will likely play to his advantage along with his low release angle to catch a lot of batters swinging.”
And indeed it has. He was nearly untouchable for April and most of May before hitting the adjustment wall in June. He did not allow more than 2 runs in a start until May 29th! Through 85 IP, he’s 7-2, 3.07 ERA, 8.89 K/9, and 1.48 BB/9 surpassing my original projection of 3.81 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 in efficiency. I like him to bouceback and level out some outcomes a bit closer to my projection. You can read the full post on Imanaga, here.
Yusei Kikuchi – In that same post above, I hit on another pitcher with a similar track record as Imanaga, that being Kikuchi. He showed a dialing in of his pitch velocity and command last year that I felt he could replicate this season. Through 88 IP, Kikuchi sports a 4-8 record, 4.18 ERA, 9.48 K/9, and 2.14 BB/9. Admittedly not the best results so far due to a messy June, but under the hood everything checks out and he’s repeating the ratios he put up last year with a better xFIP (3.28) and SIERA (3.48) that suggest he’s more like solid April and May numbers due for positive regression.
Joe Ryan – After his first couple starts I shockingly advocated for a buy high on Joe Ryan. And as I said here, it looked like Joe Ryan was about to breakout again after cleaning up some mechanics at Driveline. This most notably for me took the form of a tighter windup that resulted in a bump in velocity and changing his split-change into more of true splitter. Let’s check in with where he stands now? Through 103.2 IP, Ryan boasts a 5-5 record, 3.21 ERA, 9.55 K/9, and 1.30 BB/9, a similar line to his first half from last year before the wheels came off. Can he stay the course this time? The kryptonite for him last year was the long ball and so far this season he’s kept the ball in play more consistently with his fastball.
The Injured – A Look At Chaos
Certain areas (or players) we know are prone to more chaos, and the dice is say, a 4-sided one versus a 6-sided one or a 10-sided one which leads us to examine if was it just bad “luck” or bad process? That then begs the question, was it a worthy roll or misallocated resources? This can become subjective and situational, but later picks don’t cost much draft capital, so the dice roll most often is factored into the cost. The chaos of the injury dice has never been more evident than with…
Triston Casas – My sweet prince. Casas was well on his way to a breakout season continuing where he left off last year before injuring his ribs on April 20th. He had 6 HR in only 22 games. Still on the shelf, he’s not due back until after the All-Star Break, and you wonder just how many ABs will he get with his slow recovery. You can read my full breakdown of Casas, here.
Shane Bieber – I was all aboard the Bieber train this season on every team after he went to Driveline regained the velocity and bite on his pitches that had been missing for 2+ years. And I said as much, here, in a pop song written from the Biebs’ perspective for why you should have bought in. He dominated his first 2 starts of season allowing zero runs with a 15 K/9 and his revenge tour looked booked, only… he didn’t continue. Derailed. Now done for the season with Tommy John surgery.
The Crap
Ugh, now for the less glamorous part of our story. Time to take my lumps as part of this extreme ownership exercise. Please be nice in the comments below and tell me everything will work out in the end.
Joe Musgrove – A mix of injuries and poor performances, Joe has never been fully right this year and looks to be a lost season for him. None of these injuries have been the same as last year, but you wonder if maybe he came back too soon. I thought he had plenty of time to recover in the offseason, but that just didn’t prove to be the case. Say it ain’t so Joe! My article on Musgrove here.
Aaron Civale – Despite good early returns, Civale has ceased to impress. Aside from his first 4 starts in April, Civale has not maintained his ability to miss bats as he showed in the second half last season and with it, the elevated K-rate that impressed me so much. His walk rate has risen to a career-worst 2.79, his HR/9 has tied a career-worst 1.66, and coupled with a pedestrian K-rate, he does not appear to be harnessing the same mojo. The Rays magic hasn’t gone as planned, but you can read my cursed breakdown here.
Kenta Maeda – I’ll keep this one short, Maeda looks cooked. Velo still down, Ks down, walks up. Every couple of starts he finds himself again, but hasn’t been able to produce any consistency start-to-start. Oops! My ill-fated hope in Maeda can be found here.
Thanks for coming with me on this journey of self-examination and ownership and feel free to discuss your assessment with me in the comments below!
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
