Tuesday night was big for clinching. The Astros secured the AL West, leaving only the AL East and the NL West in play. The Guardians became the first team to clinch a first-round bye, and both the Orioles and Padres clinched playoff berths, the latter by getting the final three outs via a triple play against the Dodgers, a confluence of circumstances unprecedented in major league history. Where we entered Tuesday with 10 teams fighting for seven remaining berths, we’re down to seven teams battling for four spots. But even with the playoff field not fully set, we thought it would be a fun and worthwhile exercise to highlight various facets of the potential October teams by going around the diamond to identify the strongest and weakest at each position in each league.
As noted in Tuesday’s installment, which focused on the strongest positions among the remaining NL contenders, this is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact, even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes — think first base for the Yankees and Brewers — only this time with no trade deadline to help fill them. For this, I’m considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’m also considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.
For this installment, I’ll go around the American League, highlighting each position’s best among the remaining contenders. In this case that limits the field to the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, and Mariners, with the last of those admittedly on the ropes, down two and a half games in the Wild Card race, with the Twins half a game ahead of them, and Playoff Odds of just 2.9%.
Catcher: Cal Raleigh, Mariners
“Big Dumper” has had a very big season on both sides of the ball. His 31 homers not only leads the Mariners, it leads all catchers, and his 5.1 WAR season makes him just the third catcher of the past two years to reach that plateau, with Adley Rutschman in 2023 and William Contreras (both seasons) the others. His .218/.313/.424 slash line doesn’t scan as particularly impressive, but his 114 wRC+ is comparable to those of the Astros’ Yainer Diaz (118) and the Royals’ Salvador Perez (116), and his defense separates him from that pair. His pitch framing is elite (12.7 runs by FanGraphs, third in the majors, and 13 by Statcast, second in the majors), and he’s average or better in blocking and throwing by Statcast as well.
First Base: Carlos Santana, Twins
Here’s the deepest dig for any position, in that Carlos Santana’s 2.8 WAR as a first baseman (i.e., excluding time at other positions) isn’t star level, and three of the seven remaining AL contenders cracked my midseason Replacement Level Killers list, with a fourth that would have made it as well had the team been perceived as a contender then (I won’t spoil the suspense there). As for Santana, the well-traveled 38-year-old switch-hitter has put together his best season since 2019, hitting .234/.322/.415 (110 wRC+) with 22 homers. He’s been exceptional defensively as well, ranking first among all first basemen in FRV (11), and tied for third in DRS (8). If the Twins don’t make the cut, it won’t be his fault.
Second Base: Jose Altuve, Astros
One can make a case for the Orioles’ Jordan Westburg (3.0 WAR and a 131 wRC+ in 119 games), but he’s played just two games since returning from a seven-week absence due to a fractured right hand, and has played more games at third (67) than second (49), so I’m sticking with the nine-time All-Star, warts and all. The 34-year-old Jose Altuve has stayed healthy this season, playing in 152 games, his highest total since 2017, and he’s almost certain to surpass that year’s total of 153. That said, his 126 wRC+ (.293/.349/.436) is his lowest full-season mark since 2015, and his 3.7 WAR his lowest since ’13 (both of those depend upon overlooking his miserable 48-game 2020 campaign). Beyond his diminished power and plate discipline, what’s really driving his WAR down is his defense, which has slipped significantly. His -12 DRS makes this three years in a row of double-digit negatives by that measure, and his -6 FRV is a career worst, five runs lower than last year (he has improved from -2.7 to 2.3 in UZR, go figure).
Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
Bobby Witt Jr.’s franchise-record 10.3 WAR trails only Aaron Judge’s 10.8 on this year’s leaderboard, and given its centrality to the Royals’ turnaround — their first winning season and (probably) their first playoff appearance since 2015 — he has a solid case for MVP, though I think the big slugger and his 56 homers will carry the day. Still, the 24-year-old superstar has had a marvelous season, hitting .335/.392/.597 (170 wRC+) and becoming the youngest player to go 30-30 twice, with 32 homers and 31 steals this year. He’s also turned in his best set of defensive metrics, including 11 FRV (tied for third in the majors), 3.8 UZR (fifth), and 2 DRS (tied for 10th). Based on what he’s done so far in his young career, we’re going to be hearing about Witt for a long, long time.
Third Base: José Ramírez, Guardians
Ho hum, just another stellar season from José Ramírez, a likely future Hall of Famer. The 32-year-old has set a career high in steals (40) while hitting 37 homers, the latter of which ties him for fifth in the league and still leaves open the possibility that he could sneak into the 40-40 club in the season’s final days. He’s been a bit chase-happy at the plate, swinging at a career-high 31.7% of pitches outside the zone, and his 49.2% swing rate is a career high as well. Still, he’s hitting .275/.332/.521 (136 wRC+) and has paired that with typically strong defense en route to 5.8 WAR, good for sixth in the league.
Left Field: Riley Greene, Tigers
This was my toughest call among this group of position players. Among those whose primary position is left field, Riley Greene, Colton Cowser, and Steven Kwan are tied at 3.9 WAR overall. Kwan started the season red-hot, with an atypical burst of power, but since being sidelined for most of May by a left hamstring strain, he’s hit .266/.348/.389 (115 wRC+) in 387 PA. What’s more, he’s got a huge second-half split (165 wRC+ before the All-Star break, 76 since), and he landed on the IL with mid-back inflammation on September 14; while he was activated an hour after this article was originally published, within this particular context, he carries enough risk to bump him from consideration.
Meanwhile, both Cowser and Greene have played the majority of their outfield time in left field, and both have at least one very good defensive metric to go with some strong offensive work despite their high strikeout rates. Greene has the full-season advantage in wRC+ (136 to 120); he’s been limited to 36 games since the All-Star break due to a right hamstring strain that cost him over three weeks, but he’s been the hotter of the two in September, with a 148 to 123 edge in wRC+. In a close call, he’s the one I’m picking here.
Center Field: Aaron Judge, Yankees
Nobody expected Judge to put together another season on par with his 62-homer 2022 campaign, not after he missed nearly two months of last year with a right big toe injury, and yet he’s done just that. His 56 homers is no threat to the record books, but it’s his third season with at least 50; the other four players with at least that many have all been connected to performance-enhancing drugs, if you include Babe Ruth’s alleged 1925 injection of testosterone extracted from sheep testicles. Meanwhile, Judge’s 218 wRC+ is 12 points higher than that year’s mark, and his slash stats (.323/.459/.699) are each better as well — in a lower-scoring environment. Defensively, he’s stretched in center field (-10 DRS, -4 FRV, -0.6 UZR), but that hasn’t prevented him from totaling 10.8 WAR thus far, making him the fourth player of the post-1960 expansion era to reach the 10-WAR plateau at least twice, after Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Mike Trout.
Right Field: Juan Soto, Yankees
It may only wind up as a one-year experiment, but what a season for Juan Soto. Hitting in front of Judge, the 25-year-old has batted .287/.418/.572 while setting full-season highs in slugging percentage, home runs (40 — making him the ninth player to reach 200 homers by the end of his age-25 season), wRC+ (179), and WAR (7.9). He’s second in the AL in wRC+ and third in the other stats mentioned. What’s helped to elevate his WAR ranking is his work to improve his defense; he’s gone from -23 FRV in 2022–23 to -1 this year, and from -8 DRS in those two seasons to zero this year. Given his age and superstar status, he’s going to get paid like nobody this side of Shohei Ohtani. Can he win a second World Series ring first? We’re about to find out.
Designated Hitter: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Yordan Alvarez is simply one of the best hitters in the game. This year’s 167 wRC+ (.308/.392/.567) trails only Judge, Soto, Ohtani, and Witt among all major league hitters, while his 35 homers and 5.2 WAR rank seventh and eighth in the AL, respectively. He’s got great bat control for such a power hitter, striking out just 15% of the time; among players with 30 homers, only Witt (14.9%), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13.7%), and Ramírez (12.8%) have done as well or better at avoiding K’s. Alvarez is capable of putting on a show in October, a career .295/.393/.556 hitter in 244 PA when the lights have been at their brightest, with numerous memorable homers from among his dozen. The bad news is that the 27-year-old slugger suffered a right knee sprain on Sunday and will miss at least this week’s series against the Mariners; the Astros’ clinching buys him even more time if needed.
Rotation: Astros
The Mariners and Royals have the majors’ top two rotations by ERA (3.42 and 3.57 respectively) and are virtually tied for third in FIP (3.65), but even with Seattle owning a 30-inning advantage in workload, Kansas City has a nearly two-win advantage in WAR (16.6 to 14.8) because some of Seattle’s shinier numbers owe to the influence of their pitcher-friendly ballpark. That said, this is less about full-season, full-rotation performance than likely postseason rotations, and the case can be made for the Astros to join the fray, not only based on their starters’ strong second half (3.30 ERA, 3.41 FIP, both around a quarter-run better than that pair), but the fact that Justin Verlander is bogging down those numbers with his rough return from the IL, leaving him little case for him to start in October. That leaves manager Joe Espada with four starters (Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi, and Spencer Arrighetti) who have second half ERAs of 3.30 or lower (counting only Kikuchi’s time post-trade, with his reconfigured arsenal) and FIPs of 3.74 or lower; by comparison, both the Royals and Mariners have some very good starters who have been below average in run prevention in the second half, and neither of those groups are as battle-tested in the postseason.
If that logic isn’t enough, consider that the Astros’ starters have outperformed those on the Mariners since June 18, the start of what now amounts to a 15-game swing in the AL West standings. Meanwhile, the Royals have been sucking wind over the past few weeks as well, with a pair of seven-game losing streaks; their big three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha has been very good within that span and overall as well, but their fourth (Brady Singer) has faded drastically. If I’m picking — and [checks byline] apparently I am — I’m calling it for Houston here.
Bullpen: Guardians
Decision-wise, this one is a lot easier. The Guardians’ bullpen has the lowest full-season, second-half, and September ERAs of any team in either league (1.27 in the last of those, accompanied by a 2.75 FIP). They have the game’s top closer in Emmanuel Clase (0.62 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 46 saves for the full season), two setup men with sub-2.00 ERAs and sub-3.00 FIPs over the full stretch (Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith, and a middle-relief lefty (Tim Herrin) who fits those qualifications, too. Lower down the leverage ladder, Eli Morgan and Erik Sabrowski have pitched well lately as well. Given their admittedly flimsy rotation, the Guardians will have their work cut out for them to go deep in the playoffs, but they wouldn’t have gotten to this point without this unit.
Defense: Guardians
By the metrics there are cases to be made for both the Guardians and Royals; the former leads the remaining contenders in both leagues with 80 DRS, the latter with 26.9 UZR and 35 FRV. Between the two teams, the Guardians have a substantial advantage in both the FanGraphs and Statcast flavors of pitch framing. Both have standout defenders at one middle infield spot (Witt and Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez) with capable complements at the other and at the corners. Both are stronger in the dirt than in the outfield, and they each have center fielders who probably wouldn’t be in the lineup if not for their defense. Even with some uncertainty about Kwan, I went with the Guardians here.
One final note: Orioles
I’ll admit that it seems odd for the team with the AL’s third-best record not to place anyone on this list, so I thought it would be worth a few sentences to review. Their best player, shortstop Gunnar Henderson, is having a tremendous year but is two full wins behind Witt. Rutschman might be the best long-term bet among all catchers, but he’s had a rough second half, with a .302 slugging percentage and a 70 wRC+, leaving him with a 104 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR overall, numbers that pale next to Raleigh’s. Westburg was caught between two positions where I had more established options to consider. Cowser was a close call in left, but 44-homer slugger Anthony Santander had no case to surpass Soto in right, and there isn’t a player alive I’d take over Judge in center field even if he were pulling an oxcart. And let’s face it, pitching is not this current team’s strength, as any Orioles fan will tell you as they peer through their fingers. My logic in making the choices throughout this series is hardly infallible — Manny Machado’s brilliant start on that triple play reminded me that I probably should have considered him more strongly among NL third basemen — but I’m not second-guessing my Orioles-free lineup here.
