The Worst Team Defenses Among Contenders

The National League Wild Card race is wide open, with eight of the league’s 15 teams separated by a grand total of four and a half games in the standings. Five of those teams are currently below .500, their flaws on display on a daily basis — and some of those teams are at a particular disadvantage when it comes to their defenses.

On Wednesday, I investigated what a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages) — told us about the teams with the best defenses. Some of them appear to be playoff-bound, while others are barely hanging onto hope thanks in part to those defenses, among them the Diamondbacks.

While in years past I’ve paired my midseason evaluation of the best defenses with a companion piece highlighting the very worst, this year it seems less worth shooting Marlins (and White Sox, and A’s) in a barrel since it’s already clear they’re not going anywhere. Particularly with the July 30 trade deadline approaching, instead I’ve chosen to focus on the teams that still have a chance. Upgrading their defenses may figure into their wheeling and dealing, a topic I’ll take up in greater detail in my upcoming Replacement Level Killers series.

On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense, and it’s not at all surprising that a 600-inning sample produces divergent values across the major metrics. After all, they’re based on differing methodologies that produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom, spreads that owe something to what they don’t measure, as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have UZRs or FRVs, catchers don’t have UZRs, and DRS tends to produce the most extreme ratings.

A trio of metrics where one seems to be an outlier — such as Andrés Giménez’s 9 DRS, 6 FRV, and 0.3 UZR, or Jonathan India’s -8 DRS, -0.6 UZR, and 2 FRV — is a reminder of the way half a season’s worth of metrics might diverge. Particularly with their recent histories in mind, my best interpretation of such contrasts is that Giménez (a two-time Gold Glove winner) sits on a spectrum between good and very good (if no longer elite given last year’s double-digit measures), while India (who at one point this spring appeared bound mainly for DH duty with spot appearances at multiple positions) is a guy who’s genuinely pretty bad but passable in the right context (such as with a fly-baller on the mound).

To account for all the bits in the alphabet soup, I aggregated the aforementioned metrics, adjusting for the varying spreads in run values by using standard deviation scores (z-scores), which measure how many standard deviations each team is from the league average in each category. In a change from past editions of this exercise, I broke out catching DRS from the rest of a team’s DRS (as I had previously done with Statcast’s metrics), thus creating three catcher scores that pair with three scores for the other fielders. These catcher ratings were then weighted at one-half the value of the non-catcher scores, which accounts for what are generally much narrower spreads of run values and which improved the correlation with run prevention. On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense via a single metric, but sifting through a handful of them can give us a better idea of where they reside along the spectrum, and aggregating them by team highlights some notable trends. I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic.

Here are the spreads in runs for the six categories under investigation:

And here’s how the rankings look, this time from the bottom to the top; you can see the actual run values for all but the DRS and FRV catcher breakouts here. I’ve highlighted each category’s leaders and trailers, which helps to illustrate where the metrics agree:

Skipping over the obvious non-contenders, seven teams stand out as worth a closer look.

Reds

Remember that glut of infielders we discussed this spring? You’d figure it would have yielded a respectable defensive unit, but Cincinnati’s infield is tied for last in DRS (-22), and is in the red in terms of UZR (-5.2) and FRV (-3); including their outfielders, they’re among the bottom three in UZR (-10.3). Particularly with regards to their infielders, the individual metrics are more mixed, with Elly De La Cruz (-4.9 UZR, -3 DRS, 6 FRV) and India (-8 DRS, -0.6 UZR, 1 FRV) showing abnormally large spreads between their best and worst metrics. While having two metrics be negative and one be positive (or vice versa) isn’t rare, spreads of this magnitude are; only 12 players have gaps of 10 runs or more between any two of the major three metrics (two of them have two such gaps), and the Reds have a pair of them. That said, De La Cruz’s 6 FRV makes him the only Red who’s more than two runs above average by any measure.

Within the infield, Jeimer Candelario — whose addition in free agency last December initiated some head scratching and contributed to the crowding — has been lousy at the infield corners (-7 DRS, -6 FRV, -1.7 UZR), and while Noelvi Marte has played just 96 innings at third base since returning from an 80-game PED suspension, his -5 DRS and -4 FRV suggest he might not have picked up a glove since getting pinched. In the outfield, Spencer Steer (-4.1 UZR, -3 FRV, -2 DRS) and Will Benson (-7 DRS, 3 FRV, -2.3 UZR across three positions) have both been pretty bad; the former has been average-ish at first base, while the latter has been overexposed in center field due to TJ Friedl’s injuries. The loss of Stuart Fairchild, a better center fielder, and the acquisition of Austin Slater, whose past metrics at the position aren’t pretty, doesn’t help.

Mets

Twelve of the Mets’ 16 players with at least 100 innings at a position have a DRS below zero, and a still-appalling eight of them have an FRV below zero. To be fair, at least a couple situations contributing to those sad numbers have been addressed. The team’s turnaround from a 24-35 start largely coincides with catcher Francisco Alvarez’s return from surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb. Since-departed backstops Tomás Nido and Omar Narváez combined for -11 DRS, -2.5 FRM, and -2 FRV, while Alvarez and current backup Luis Torrens have combined for 4 DRS, 1.0 FRM, and 2 FRV. Right fielder Starling Marte, whose numbers are just brutal (-9 DRS, -8 FRV, -5 UZR), is currently on the shelf due to a bone bruise in his right knee that probably contributed to that poor showing, leaving Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart to do most of the work since mid-June; Taylor’s 5 DRS in just 166 innings is the highest total on the team, though probably subject to some regression.

An area ripe for upgrade is second base, where the hot-hitting Jose Iglesias has cut into Jeff McNeil’s playing time as the latter has descended below replacement level. Iglesias, once a flashy-fielding shortstop who made an All-Star team, leads the league in OMG, but his (admittedly small-sample) metrics at second base are below average, and so the pair has combined for -4 DRS and -4 FRV. Less easily changed is the first base situation, unless pending free agent Pete Alonso is traded; the Polar Bear’s -5 FRV is the majors’ worst among players with at least 100 innings at first, while his -4 DRS is tied for third-worst.

Cubs

When they jumped out to a 17-9 start, the Cubs looked like they might be serious contenders, but they’ve gone 27-40 since then, worse than any NL team but the Marlins and Rockies. Their offense, which ranks 11th in scoring, is their biggest problem, but their defense is obviously enough of an issue to land them here. Their worst defender by the metrics is third baseman Christopher Morel, who ranks last at the position in both FRV and DRS (-8 in each) and fourth-worst in UZR (-2.5) — as if his offensive troubles weren’t enough. Backup catcher Yan Gomes caught only 244 innings before being released and replaced by Nido, leaving behind some brutal numbers, including -5 DRS and a big league-worst -3.9 FRM. Starter Miguel Amaya has been a better defender, but with his 51 wRC+, he’s still below replacement level.

In the outfield, rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong has been outstanding while part-timing in center (8 DRS, 7 FRV, 0.1 UZR), but former Gold Glove winner Cody Bellinger has been slightly subpar (-2 DRS, -2 FRV, -0.4 UZR) while splitting his time between center and right, and Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman have both been below average in two out of three metrics.

Pirates

Thanks to strong performances by rookies Jared Jones and Paul Skenes, as well as improvements by second baseman Nick Gonzales and shortstop Oneil Cruz, the Pirates are more interesting than they’ve been in awhile. Even so, they’re very much a work in progress along the lines of what Cruz’s metrics (-5 DRS, -3.6 UZR, 1 FRV) suggest.

The outfield is a particular problem, ranking last in DRS (-18) and second-to-last in FRV (-17), though somehow they’re about average in UZR (0.4). Bryan Reynolds (who mostly plays left field) and Edward Olivares (mostly right) are tied for last with -8 FRV, and Jack Suwinski is just one run better in that category while producing a major league worst -14 DRS, mainly in left field and center; if not for the strong work of center fielder Michael A. Taylor (8 FRV, 6 DRS, 4.9 UZR), these guys might as well be playing in the Allegheny River.

Padres

Just because they’ve made the team almost entirely out of shortstops doesn’t mean that they’re all as good as Ha-Seong Kim. Left fielder Jurickson Profar‘s turnaround from a sub-replacement level season to an All-Star is impressive, but his defense (-7 DRS, -3 FRV, 2.4 UZR) has been a concern. Jake Cronenworth’s shift from first base to second to cover for the injured Xander Bogaerts hasn’t gone well (-5 FRV, -4 DRS, 0 UZR), though at least Bogaerts is about to return. Before he went on the injured list with a stress reaction in his right femur, Fernando Tatis Jr. was nothing special in right (-3 DRS, -0.6 UZR, 0 FRV) relative to last year’s off-the-charts metrics, which helped him garner not only a Gold Glove but the NL’s Platinum Glove.

What’s really dragging the Padres’ defensive rating down, though, is catcher Luis Campusano. His -12 DRS, -9 FRV, and -3.9 FRM are all the majors’ lowest (tied with Gomes in the last of those). Backup Kyle Higashioka has been above-average (3 DRS, 2 FRV, 0.2 FRM) while outhitting Campusano (128 to 85 in terms of wRC+); given that the Padres went 10-4 with Higashioka doing the bulk of the work while Campusano was sidelined with a left thumb bruise, it would make sense for him to be anointed the starter.

Red Sox

Finally, a quick peak into the American League. The Red Sox infield ranks among the bottom three in all three metrics, including a major league-worst -17 FRV. The unit has been destabilized by Trevor Story’s season-ending shoulder injury, with their shortstops (mainly Ceddanne Rafaela and David Hamilton) combining for -10 DRS, -9 FRV, and -2.6 UZR, and their second basemen (mainly Enmanuel Valdez, Vaughn Grissom, and Hamilton) combining for -6 FRV, -4 DRS, and -2.1 UZR. At third, Rafael Devers has been typically shaky (-4 DRS, -2.7 UZR, -2 FRV), though thanks to his 156 wRC+, he’s already just one run shy of last year’s 3.4 WAR. The outfield, at least, has been very good, with the majors’ second-highest DRS (23) and fourth-highest FRV (9). Jarren Duran (11 DRS, 6 FRV, 2.3 UZR split between center and left) has been the best of the bunch, with Rafaela in center and Wilyer Abreu in right both above average as well.

Rays

Amid an atypically down season (45-47) that may lead to some selling, the Rays don’t really have much in the way of glaring weaknesses defensively so much as they have slow leaks of a few runs at multiple positions. Randy Arozarena has been subpar in left (-4 FRV, -3 DRS, -0.5 UZR), and Yandy Díaz likewise at first base (-2.8 UZR, -1 DRS, -1 FRV). Of their other players with a trifecta of negative ratings, right fielders Josh Lowe and Amed Rosario, and second baseman Curtis Mead, have done so in samples of less than 250 innings, though Rosario, who played himself off the Guardians’ shortstop job last year, has some eye-catchingly bad metrics in just 166 innings in right (-5 DRS, -3 FRV, -1.5 UZR).