In search of ideas for this column, and with a posting deadline on the horizon, I recently — and fortuitously — stumbled upon what appears to be a new addition to the ever-expanding list of offerings over at Baseball Savant. They now have a “Percentile Rankings Leaderboard” which is a beautifully laid out, colorful list where you can see how players rank by percentile in a host of offensive, defensive, and pitching metrics. It’s an awesome one-stop-shop kind of list that lets you rank and compare players without having to do the tedious work of toggling between countless player pages.
What’s even more awesome is how the visual layout allows you to find trends and outliers by simply looking for red or blue.
The deeper the red, the closer to 100th percentile — and great — the player is. Conversely, the deeper the blue, the closer to 1st percentile — and not great — the player is. See a bunch of red next to a player and you can draw some really positive conclusions. See a bunch of blue and, well, yeah…
The contrast is stark, both visually and in reality.
In the short amount of time I’ve spent analyzing the page, I’ve noticed some pretty interesting things, many of which surprised me.
Sure, some of what I noticed was obvious, like the best hitters in baseball ranking at the top of the chart showered in deep red. Judge, Soto, Ohtani, and Witt being at the top of nearly every hitting categories should surprise nobody. That they’re all there at the top actually validates what we think we know based on advanced metrics and the metrics themselves.
But it’s when you see the bits of blue, particularly deep blue, surrounded by a sea of red, that things start to get interesting. That’s because in theory really good hitters generally shouldn’t have massive holes in their games. And when they do, it makes you wonder how? How can a player be elite or well above average with such a pronounced flaw or deficiency? Especially when literally everyone else in their tier doesn’t have that flaw, or in some cases any flaws?
After spending a bit of time tangled up in red and blue, here are some things I noticed and conclusions I’ve drawn, a few of which could be useful to fantasy managers:
The Outliers
First, Jackson Merrill and Jordan Westburg are total outliers. No other players in the top 50 are anywhere close to as blue, or bad, in the walks column. You don’t have to walk a ton to be a good hitter, but generally speaking hitters with zero discipline who swing at everything experience massive highs and lows at best and get fully exposed at worst.
Merrill in particular appears to have the most aggressive (and perhaps worst?) approach in the top 100. Not just that, he’s among the most aggressive hitters in baseball, ranking in the 7th and 9th percentiles in Walk% and Chase%. I’m not really sure what to make of this revelation, but if you dig a bit deeper and go to Merrill’s player page you’ll see he ranks in the 96 percentile in launch angle sweet spot %. That means Merrill somehow manages to marry an overly aggressive approach with a great swing path and some of the best barrel control in the game. It all seems to work now, but it will be interesting to see if the aggressive approach ever catches up to him.
I would actually bet on Merrill’s ability to sustain his current level of production despite a hyper aggressive approach over Westburg given the fact Westburg appears to have more holes in his swing. He ranks 21st percentile in Whiff%, while Merrill ranks in the 74th percentile.
Speaking of whiffs, strikeouts and whiffs alone don’t seem to matter much. Lots of players on this list whiff a lot. Many of the best hitters are all red except in Whiff%. Aaron Judge is in the 12th percentile inWhiff%, Shohei Ohtani 16th, Marcell Ozuna 11th, and Brent Rooker 6th. Clearly, if we’ve learned anything in the three true outcomes era, it’s that guys can swing and miss a ton and still do exceptional damage at the plate.
Mookie Betts is somehow among the better hitters in baseball this season despite being a Barrel% outlier. He ranks in the 31st percentile in Barrel%. Nobody else in the top 50 ranks below the 40th percentile. Of course most rank towards the top. No wonder Mookie is posting some of his worst power numbers in years. I would imagine the hand injury he suffered early in the season is the culprit here. Could be a good buy low candidate next season in redraft and dynasty formats.
Freddie Freeman is a bat speed outlier. Among the top 50 hitters, Freddie’s 20th percentile ranking in bat speed is by far the lowest. Nobody else is below the 36th percentile (Jordan Westburg is there — perhaps another alarming sign for him). Freddie is still barreling the ball and having a fine season, but if the bat continues to get slower with age it will be interesting to see how quickly he declines. I think we’re already beginning to see signs.
Jonathan India is an exit velocity outlier. He does a lot of things really well, but his 18th percentile exit velocity ranking is easily the worst in the top 50. Fortunately for fantasy managers, India’s value is tied more to him being a solid, well-rounded hitter at a scarce position, so this should alarm nobody. I personally think India is one of the more undervalued players in fantasy and I intend to target him heavily next year if the price remains discounted.
Salvador Perez has been great this season despite a 1st percentile Whiff%. I’ve never understood how Perez has gotten by his entire career with such a poor approach, but I added him in my 30 teamer this year and the move has paid off handsomely. Perez is the definition of an outlier and a fun one to boot.
Yainer Diaz ranks in 4th and 2nd percentiles in BB% and Chase%. That’s a scary profile which makes me wonder if he’s an outlier or just very, very lucky. Maybe he has a little Perez magic in him?
Other Interesting Things I Noticed
Lawrence Butler is a legit beast. He ranks 23rd in xwOBA and has red across some of the most important metrics. If you are currently rostering Butler you already know he’s a stud. The opportunity to buy low or buy at all has likely passed given his recent performance, but maybe you can find a skeptic or two next spring or jump on him earlier than others in drafts.
Giancarlo Stanton looks like he might be back to being Giancarlo Stanton, with a few rankings that are matched only by his esteemed teammate, Aaron Judge. There’s a lot of dark red on his row, but some dark blue as well. All together, we have what appears to be a relatively healthy, productive, and viable fantasy option once again.
LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Toglia, Trevor Larnach, Lars Nootbaar, Jesus Sanchez, Taylor Ward, Mark Vientos, Michael Conforto, Brenton Doyle, Jake Burger, Cal Raleigh, and Heliot Ramos are all soaked in red and in some cases still available in fantasy leagues.
Wade has yet to truly put it together, but his approach and batted ball data are great. He and Conforto are both over 30 and not the most exciting fantasy options, but you could do much worse than those two.
I’ve been tracking Sanchez for a couple years and wonder what he would do if he ever got out of Miami. There’s a lot to like about his profile, though his approach and platoon split seems to be the biggest hurdles at the moment.
Nootbaar and Ward are both good hitters. Ward has very few holes in his game but can be up and down for reasons I haven’t figured out yet. If Nootbaar lifted the ball more and faired a bit better against LHP he could be really good.
Larnach is also a platoon guy, though he could be a useful bench bat in many leagues.
Vientos, Doyle, and Ramos are younger players with relatively high profiles at this point. They aren’t sneaking up on anybody but the rankings here validate what we think we know about them to this point.
Toglia, Burger, and Raleigh are streaky hitters with a lot of swing and miss in their games, but when they’re on they can really pack a mean punch.
Additionally, Shea Langeliers and Wilyer Abreu have an awful lot of deeper red in their rows despite ranking outside of the top 100. I’m a fan of both and they are still available in 25-30% of leagues according to Fantrax.
Lastly, nobody outside of the top 25 has more deep red across the board than Oneil Cruz. I think he will be a top 5-10 dynasty player if he can make even modest improvements in the swing and miss department and prove he can stay healthy. He’s still highly thought of in fantasy circles, but the lack of a big breakout has likely depressed his value a bit. I will target him heavily next spring and in the off-season.
There’s a lot to learn being tangled up in red and blue. We all look up and down charts and stat sheets to evaluate players, but never has the process been more visual, illuminating, and fun at the same time.
