From the get-go, the most recent round of fashion weeks felt different. I didn’t make it to New York this season, but as I started meeting with CEOs and creative directors for catch-ups in London, Milan and Paris, it became more clear than ever that the industry is mired in a deep malaise. One CEO with 40 years of experience in the luxury fashion sector said he had never before witnessed such a marked shift in consumer sentiment in all major markets around the world, all at the same time.
The big question is whether the current downturn is a shorter-term cyclical shift, or a longer-term structural cataclysm that will require the luxury sector to make fundamental changes to its business model. The combination of customer resistance to dramatic price increases amid declining quality and ongoing questions about industry ethics and sustainability have dented the perceived value of big brand luxury.
Meanwhile, the rumour mill around creative director appointments continues to whir, leading fashion enthusiasts to conclude that designers are increasingly seen as dispensable, working under the pressure of an industry that doesn’t stop.
The Luxury Sweatshops Scandal: ‘It Could Happen to Any of Us’
As our sustainability correspondent Sarah Kent reported in a BoF investigation published at the beginning of Milan Fashion Week, the luxury fashion sector is in crisis mode as the industry awaits the results of a government probe into the luxury supply chains of as many as 12 luxury brands, after Armani and Dior were the first to be exposed for relying on an operating model that Italian prosecutors say prioritises profits over worker welfare.
“It could happen to any of us,” one executive said to me, claiming that no matter how hard they worked to get the situation under control, things are sometimes changed overnight when brands are not able to oversee everything in their outsourced supply chains. This sounded to me like an abdication of accountability rather than a realisation that there exists a deeper problem that must be solved.
But I still got the sense that the growing regulatory pressure and customer awareness of the issue will force executives to act, especially as the findings of the investigation play out on social media. It’s not lost on executives that the glossy exterior of luxury brands can quickly be compromised when brands are seen to underpay workers for products that are positioned as luxury.
Indeed, a Dior product certificate I found at home recently says the following: “We certify that this article has been manufactured according to the most rigorous quality standards, and in conformity with the image of our brand name.” Most other brands make similar promises. Now they know they must deliver on them or else.
Dramatic Slowdown in China Squashes Post-Covid Momentum
The rapid deceleration in the critical Chinese market was also a hot topic during fashion month. As one person put it to me, a strong performance in China over the last quarter is flat or single digit declines in revenue. The most challenged brands are seeing declines of up to thirty or forty percent, decimating profitability.
Consumer confidence in China remains low, as shoppers continue to grapple with a real-estate crisis which has had an impact on their perceived sense of wealth. Chinese customers are trading down, leaving luxury brands in the lurch. By most accounts, the next 12 to 18 months in the luxury sector are set to be very challenging indeed.
We will have our first read of how hard the industry is being hit when sector bellwether LVMH reports its Q3 results next week. With a US market that is basically flat year-on-year, and a European market that is struggling to regain its tourist inflows, analysts are expecting (and hoping for) a flat Q3, which would be seen as a good outcome.
Budget Cuts, Everywhere
Outside the shows, fashion month is usually filled with extravagant dinners and parties staged by brands to create more content and opportunities to wine and dine industry leaders. But, there was a notable pullback in these activations in London, Paris and Milan, and even some of the show sets and venues seemed dialled back as well. I can’t even count the number of times I heard the words “budget cuts” uttered this season.
For Casey Cadwallader at Mugler, this meant a much more straightforward daytime show at Le Trianon, a Paris concert hall with none of the nighttime theatrics that excited insiders in recent seasons.
This season at Louis Vuitton, the industry’s biggest luxury house created a runway made up of more than 1,000 Louis Vuitton trunks that rose from the floor at the beginning of the show instead of an elaborate set. It was an effective way to underscore the heritage of the house, but also seemed to be a way to trim the cost of the show set which in recent seasons has featured elaborate sets by Philippe Parreno.
Quiet Luxury on the Wane For Women
One notable change on the Spring/Summer 2025 runways was the return to maximalism and expressive fashion as seen at Valentino, Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta.
There’s a good reason for this. Buyers and retailers I spoke to said that shoppers, particularly women, have tired of the muted colours and pared back designs that fuelled the quiet luxury trend in recent seasons.
There are a few reasons for this, they said. First, women’s closets are now filled with basic items in navy, beige and black. Now they are looking for more colourful and extravagant styles that motivate them to buy. Plus, smart shoppers have realised they can get a good version of quiet luxury at brands like Massimo Dutti for a fraction of the price.
This should bode well for those brands which laid on the embellishment and intricate craft in their collections. However, according to top retailers, the men’s quiet luxury movement continues unabated, with brands like Loro Piana, Zegna and Brunello Cucinelli continuing to perform well.
The Return of Retail Buying Power
With the merger of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus in the United States and MyTheresa’s acquisition of Yoox Net-a-Porter announced earlier this week, multi-brand retailers will now be able to flex their muscle with brands, some of whom are reevaluating their retrenchment from wholesale channels.
As the overall luxury market cools, these larger and more powerful retail juggernauts offer a chance to reach new customers, who one day may shop the brand directly.
However, the retailers I spoke to also understand that they need to offer a more curated buy, rely less on discounting and elevate the shopping experience so top luxury brands feel safe in their retail environments.
This Weekend on The BoF Podcast
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Zac Posen burst onto the fashion scene in the early 2000s, gaining acclaim for his glamorous designs and dressing Hollywood’s elite. After nearly two decades, Posen closed his label in 2019, finding himself at a crossroads that eventually led to a meeting with Richard Dickson, the new CEO of Gap Inc., and the chance to join the company as creative director. Now, he’s on a mission to bring cultural relevance and excitement back to brands like Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, and Athleta.
“Within five minutes [of meeting Dickson], I knew that there was something very special. It was a cosmic moment where there was like a magic connection, where I saw that I had met my dreamer,” Posen says.
This week on The BoF Podcast, I sit down with Posen to explore his journey of redefining success, his transformative role at Gap Inc., and his vision for the future of fashion.
Wishing you all a great weekend!
Imran Amed, Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief, The Business of Fashion
Here are my other top picks from our analysis on fashion, luxury and beauty:
1. What Escalation in the Middle East War Means for the Industry. After a year of war, things continued to heat up in the Middle East this week. BoF spoke to industry sources in the region to assess the impact, from Beirut’s ateliers to fashion retailers in Dubai.
2. Why Mytheresa Bought Yoox-Net-a-Porter. The merger between the luxury e-tailers has potentially far-reaching implications for the troubled sector.
3. Why Fashion Is Maxing Out on Minimalism. The Row’s success – including a recent investment from the families behind Chanel and L’Oréal at a unicorn valuation – is the most prestigious example of a rising generation of women-led independent brands that sell minimalist, approachably chic clothes. Some of them have billion-dollar aspirations of their own.
4. Old-School Magazines Are Brands’ New Favourite Marketing Tactic. Brands from Madhappy and Patta to Bottega Veneta are once again embracing print magazines full of on-brand editorial content as they attempt to escape the algorithm and bypass the drawbacks of social-media marketing.
5. The Glory Days of the Pop-Up Store Are Over. What’s Next? Rising rents and low vacancy rates have made it prohibitively expensive for many emerging brands to open retail locations — even temporary ones. Scrappy companies have found creative, low-cost ways to reach their consumers, from hotel partnerships and trunk shows to activations on college campuses.
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