Ah, the trade deadline. It’s a time to dream about the huge moves your club could make. It could go get a big bopper, the kind of hitter who could put the team on his back down the stretch and carry it to October. Maybe you’re more interested in a CC Sabathia-style workhorse, a starter who could anchor your pitching staff and throw as many innings as you need, regardless of what that number is. Perhaps an electrifying defender is on the table, or a game-breaking speedster who could transform your lineup. But let’s be realistic: None of that’s going to happen. Instead, your team is going to trade for a reliever.
Relievers are the common currency of the trade deadline. Every team needs more of them. I don’t see a single bullpen in baseball that couldn’t benefit from adding an arm or two. Meanwhile, most of the acquisitions fans dream about simply aren’t on the table, because those players don’t exist. Sure, half a season of one of the best hitters in baseball is enticing, but you can’t get that at the trade deadline because no team has one to spare, at least not for a reasonable cost. But relievers? Oh, there will be relievers on offer.
Today’s article is something of a real world shopping guide. Obviously, a huge move would be more fun. Maybe Luis Robert Jr. or Garrett Crochet will get traded. Realistically, though, most of the prizes this deadline will be middle relievers. So let’s take stock of an assortment of the best options who might be on the market, as well as what past years suggest about their probable cost in prospects.
A few rules of engagement: I’m looking only at likely sellers, and going team by team. I didn’t use a hard-and-fast rule in terms of playoff chances when constructing my seller’s list, and I’m erring on the expansive side, so if I list your team in the article and you think they’re still in the race, my apologies. I’m using the last few years of trade returns as a guide, and I’m going to stick to naming prospect value tiers rather than individual names. Let’s get started.
Toronto Blue Jays
Chad Green, RHP
Trevor Richards, RHP
Nate Pearson, RHP
This is a tricky one. The Blue Jays have the worst bullpen in baseball in terms of WAR this year, but they also have a lot of interesting relievers. Yimi García and Jordan Romano are both on the IL, and although García may return before the deadline, I’m considering both of them off-limits. However, Toronto still has a few solid options.
Green has a long history of effective relief work, but he had Tommy John surgery in 2022 and hasn’t quite looked the same since. He has a 3.08 ERA and 4.24 FIP (4.0 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA) since returning. He’s under contract through 2025, at $10.5 million per year. That makes Green an expensive middle relief option, but the Jays seem likely to pay down some of the money on that deal if they trade him.
The question here boils down to whether Green will muddle by as a decent option or regain his killer breaking ball and head back up to closer-level results. I expect teams to split the difference in their offers. That works out to something like a 40+ or 45 FV prospect coming back in exchange. I’d be excited to make that deal if I were trading for Green; I think his post-injury trajectory implies some upside.
Richards has one of the best changeups in baseball and not a ton else. He’ll give you a lot of innings at a competent rate. He’s a free agent after this year, so the Jays are definitely looking to move him. The return for someone of Richards’ caliber has generally been a lottery ticket: a fringe player already on the 40-man roster or a minor leaguer with a loud tool or two but some red flags. I think the Jays may package him with Green to sweeten the deal; two veteran relievers are an attractive option for teams who need quantity as much as quality (Astros, Royals, Mets).
That leaves Pearson, an awkward case. He was once a top prospect, but he’s been in the majors for three-plus years at this point without much success. The stuff is still there; the results have never arrived. Realistically, no team is giving up more than a low-level flier in exchange for him, but that feels light from the Jays’ side based on his former pedigree. I expect that if Pearson gets moved, it will be in a package deal with one of Toronto’s hitters to obscure the exact one-for-one nature of the trade. I think that teams with high confidence in their pitching development will be interested in Pearson; he has three plus pitches and a live arm. It’s just a matter of which teams thinks they can fix him, and what other needs they have.
Detroit Tigers
Andrew Chafin, LHP
Jason Foley, RHP
Will Vest, RHP
Chafin is the archetypical deadline rental. He has closer experience and is pitching well this year. He has a club option for 2025 that looks likely to be picked up but certainly isn’t a no-brainer, so acquiring teams can think of him as a short-term or intermediate piece. He’s a lefty, helpful for heavily unbalanced bullpens. Teams might be weirded out by his brief collapse in 2023, but he righted the ship quickly. There’s nothing particularly fluky in his numbers; he’s a high-strikeout, high-walk guy, which makes sense given his slider-heavy approach. I think the broad appeal of Chafin’s profile will support a 40+/45 FV prospect, a juicy return considering that Chafin got traded for Peter Strzelecki only a year ago. The combination of track record and current performance is just too enticing.
Foley and Vest aren’t locks to get dealt. The Tigers control both for years to come, and they’re trying to compete in 2025; if they don’t get attractive offers, there’s no reason to deal either one. But both players debuted late, which means a lot of their value is concentrated in the present and near future. Foley’s underlying stats don’t thrill me; I bet the Tigers ask for a closer-y return and don’t get one.
Vest, on the other hand, looks like the real deal. He gets grounders and doesn’t give out free passes. He has enough intriguing pitches that one will surely pop in any team’s pitch modeling framework. If you want to plug Vest into the middle of your bullpen for years to come, I think the Tigers would be willing to make a move for a Chafin-like return. They could use some depth in their system, and while Vest is great now, the half-life of effective relievers isn’t huge, so I’d expect Detroit to be willing to cash in. I think about the Yankees’ trading Hayden Wesneski to the Cubs for Scott Effross at the 2022 deadline in roughly the same vein.
Chicago White Sox
John Brebbia, RHP
Tanner Banks, LHP
The White Sox are open for business, largely in the luxury aisle – Crochet and Robert are exciting trade chips. Brebbia isn’t exciting, but he’s consistently useful. Most teams could use a slider-and-command guy like him in middle relief. I think he’ll fetch a 40+ FV prospect in return, a depth piece with an exciting tool or two. He’d be a priority target of mine assuming that’s the price; I like his odds of performing well over the rest of the season more than some relievers who have garnered more interest according to the current rumor mill.
Banks is a pure depth piece. He’s having a good season so far, largely on the back of home run prevention, but also thanks to a career-best strikeout rate. My guess is that the White Sox are asking for a prospect in the 40+/45 FV range thanks to all the years of control, but they’ll end up settling for less. He’s already 32, isn’t exactly dominant this year, and has a career 3.94 ERA with similar projections going forward. He’s a nice lefty filler arm, but I don’t see him as more than that.
Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Estévez, RHP
Someone like Estévez gets dealt every year, and I’m always surprised by the return. He’s having a career-best season so far thanks to shockingly improved command – 9.3% walk rate coming into 2024 and 3.5% so far this year. He’s been more fantasy-relevant than real-life dominant in Anaheim, because someone has to close, but even if you ignore the saves, we’re talking about a 3.47 ERA and 3.76 FIP since the start of 2022. Someone is going to gamble that the walks have gone away for good and offer the Angels a legit prospect in exchange. Last year’s Jordan Hicks trade seems like a reasonable comparison; Hicks has more exciting stuff, but Estévez really does look good when he’s hitting corners. His 13.3% swinging-strike rate isn’t something you can fake.
The Angels might theoretically try to trade some other relievers, but I just don’t see how it would work. Their best names are on the IL, and Ben Joyce isn’t getting traded. Maybe Luis García will catch someone’s eye, but I think he’s firmly in flier-only territory. It’s mostly a one-man operation here.
Oakland Athletics
Mason Miller, RHP
Lucas Erceg, RHP
Scott Alexander, LHP
T.J. McFarland, LHP
I’m not going to speculate on a Miller trade here, because he doesn’t really fit in with the rest of the names I’m profiling. He’d probably net the A’s a Top 100 prospect plus more in a trade, and they are only going to move him to a team who really wants him. This article is mostly about filling the middle of the bullpen, so let’s move on.
Erceg is unhittable when he’s on and unplayable when he can’t locate. He’s the kind of guy teams covet because a hot two-week stretch in the playoffs might turn their bullpen from solid to outrageous. Guys who throw 100 and miss bats are always going to draw offers, and he’s performing well this year to boot. This feels like a classic case where a team that likes its big league pitching development staff will give up a notable prospect, perhaps of the 45 FV tier. Or, since it’s the A’s, maybe all it would take is a package of three lesser prospects who popped in some spreadsheet in the bowels of the Coliseum. The A’s like their trade returns inscrutable.
Alexander and McFarland are going to get traded for PTBNL-level returns, I think. I wouldn’t be excited about either in an abstract case, but there are plenty of teams who need lefty relievers to create bullpen balance and attack playoff matchups. Neither is much more than a lefty specialist at this point, but I feel quite certain that lefty relievers who have a) acceptable ERAs and b) pulses will get dealt for organizational depth, just like they do every year.
Washington Nationals
Kyle Finnegan, RHP
Dylan Floro, RHP
Robert Garcia, LHP
After the Nations traded Hunter Harvey for a solid return, they are going to ask for a lot in exchange for Finnegan. I just don’t think teams will give Washington what it wants for him. Is he better than Estévez or Erceg? I don’t see it. He has a shiny ERA but he’s not missing a ton of bats. Harvey projects to be meaningfully better than Finnegan the rest of the season, and both are under club control next year, so there’s no difference there. I think the Nats are going to ask for a borderline Top 100 prospect, get rebuffed, and end up accepting a 40+ FV prospect that they particularly like. My guess is Finnegan will show up as one of the “deals of the deadline” lists but will generally underwhelm on his new team.
I’d be far more interested in Floro, one of the most underrated relievers in baseball. That sounds wild, right? What if I told you he has a career 3.26 ERA and 2.99 FIP over nearly 400 innings? You probably wouldn’t believe me, because he doesn’t strike anyone out. But he just does not let the ball leave the yard. He gets a ton of grounders, and he’s particularly appealing as a platoon-matchup guy; his sinker/slider attack is at its best against righties. Teams who want to play matchups in their bullpen will be blowing up Mike Rizzo’s phone over the coming weeks. I think there’s a decent chance that he ends up fetching more than Finnegan.
That leaves Garcia, who probably won’t get traded. Consider this a public service announcement: This guy is for real. His changeup is his best pitch, and it’s a real gem. The biggest thing holding him back is a so-so fastball — two-plane and without exciting velocity — but his changuep is so good that he’s still striking out a third of the batters he faces. I think the Nats are going to keep him around and see if he can be their closer of the future, but teams who like to tinker with fastball design would love to get their hands on him.
Miami Marlins
Tanner Scott, LHP
A.J. Puk, LHP
Anthony Bender, RHP
Andrew Nardi, LHP
Calvin Faucher, RHP
Huascar Brazoban, RHP
JT Chargois, RHP
I thought about just putting the entire Marlins bullpen on here. I expect many of these guys to move. Scott’s walk issues are terrifying, and he’s obviously not a true-talent 1.34 ERA pitcher, but he’s a reasonable fit at the back of a playoff bullpen anyway. His fastball is one of the best in baseball, and his slider isn’t far behind. If Mason Miller doesn’t get dealt, Scott will probably fetch the highest return of any reliever this year. Take last year’s David Robertson trade (in the opposite direction) as a rough comparison: The Marlins can probably secure a high-upside young player plus a bit more in exchange for a dominant half-season of relief.
Puk probably won’t get dealt; the Marlins still believe in his upside and will probably give him another ill-advised crack at the starting rotation at some point. I think teams would offer a 45 FV prospect for him, but my current feeling is that the Marlins will turn that down.
The same can’t be said for the next bunch. Bender was abysmal just last year, but sinker/slider types have a place in every bullpen. I’d peg his return as Dylan Floro-lite. Nardi is having a nightmarish season, with a .341 BABIP and 60.4% LOB driving his ERA into the stratosphere, but I bet you a lefty with a nasty fastball entices many rival GMs. I think the Marlins hold onto him unless someone blows them away with a deal, and that he’ll stay put just like Puk. But given that he has less prospect pedigree, I’m less certain about this view.
Faucher, Brazoban, and Chargois are all on the older side relative to their team control, and they’ve all looked good this year despite middling raw stuff. I don’t see why the Marlins would hold onto them given reasonable offers in return. I expect all three to be traded, and all for lottery ticket level returns. That’s good business from both sides; Miami needs to replenish its farm system and doesn’t have a lot of need for short-term relievers. None of these three look like great playoff bullpen options right now, but any could be if they put together another good month or two of performance. This feels like a sweet spot for teams hunting for volume in their deadline acquisitions.
Colorado Rockies
Yeesh…
I’m not saying the Rockies have no one interesting. I like Nick Mears quite a lot; his fastball looks unhittable at times and he’ll figure out a secondary option at some point. I think he’s more solid middle reliever than late-inning option, but I think teams would offer a 40 FV prospect, at least, for him. I just don’t see Colorado doing that – the Rockies are notoriously averse to deadline trades, and particularly so when it comes to non-rentals.
The rest of the options are pretty grim. I suppose Jalen Beeks could be a low-leverage guy somewhere, but he’s not much better than what I’d expect to be available on the waiver wire. Beeks is the only healthy Rockies reliever on an expiring deal, so all the others are in a spot where the team acquiring them would have to overvalue them to get Colorado interested. Victor Vodnik and Justin Lawrence have a lot of team control remaining but have major command issues. Jake Bird got optioned to Triple-A, and deservedly so. I think it’s Mears or nothing here, and most likely nothing.
Is this an exhaustive list of the relievers who will get dealt this deadline? Surely not. There are always some contender-to-contender trades, and there inevitably will be some surprises who are moved. But if you’re wondering who’s likely available for your contending team, or who your rebuilding squad will be looking to deal, this list is a good framework.
The key takeaways, for me, are as follows: First, Tanner Scott is in a tier of his own. (Mason Miller is in an even higher tier, but I just don’t see the A’s dealing him.) Second, there will be a ton of established guys available in the next tier down – setup men or committee closers. That’s where I’d hope to shop; the sheer volume of them should keep prices reasonable, and the variety of styles in that group means that teams can target pitchers who match their style. Outside of Scott, Andrew Chafin is the best lefty, so he likely will command a bit of a premium; after him there are a ton of acceptable options.
Obviously, I’m not sure what each reliever will fetch in trades. If I had to pick my favorites, though, I’d go with Brebbia, Erceg, Vest, and Floro. Those four offer the best ratio of expected return to expected cost, at least in my book. We’ll have to wait a few weeks to see how the market shakes out, but good righty middle relievers feel like a market opportunity this year.
