Donald Trump’s selection of arch-isolationist JD Vance as his running mate has cemented Europe’s fears that a second Trump term would drastically reduce transatlantic security ties, increase tariffs and sever critical US support for Ukraine.
Vance has dismissed US security guarantees as a crutch that has allowed Europe “to ignore its own security” and argued that US aid for Ukraine is unnecessary.
Trump’s choice of the 39-year-old has intensified US allies’ concerns that he intends to run a protectionist “America first” administration, with huge implications for Europe’s defence and economic security.
“If Trump is elected and continues with the policy preferred by Vance, he may announce the abolition of Nato or US leadership of it at least,” said Rob Johnson, who recently stood down as director of the UK Ministry of Defence unit charged with gauging the country’s’ military strength.
“That would be the signal for Russia to regenerate its power over a decade with China, and apply more coercion against Nato,” he added. “We are entering a very dark period indeed.”
Trump’s lead in polling ahead of November’s vote and incumbent Joe Biden’s stumbling performance in their first televised debate have already unnerved European capitals fearful that the Republican will return to the White House.
Reacting to Vance’s nomination as Trump’s prospective vice-president, Guy Verhofstadt, a member of the European parliament and former Belgian prime minister, posted on X that there would be “more champagne popping in the Kremlin”.
He added: “Are Europe and UK preparing yet or still shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic?”
In a further sign of possible transatlantic tensions, Vance suggested in a speech last week that the UK under its new Labour government could become an “Islamist country”.
Referring to a discussion about what would be “the first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon”, he mentioned Pakistan and Iran and then added: “Maybe it’s actually the UK, since Labour just took over.”
Trump claimed this year that London had become “unrecognisable” because it had “opened its doors to jihad”, referring to pro-Palestinian protests. About 6.5 per cent of the UK’s population is Muslim.
Deputy UK prime minister Angela Rayner said on Tuesday she did not “recognise” Vance’s characterisation of Britain under the new Labour government, adding that it was “interested in . . . working with our international allies”.
In an interview last year, Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, praised Vance’s memoir Hillbilly Elegy, saying it had moved him to tears.
But he added it was “tragic” that a “self-declared conservative opponent of Donald Trump, who analyses so trenchantly the injustices of American society”, had “turned into such a fiery advocate of this rightwing populist, just to gain his support and himself become a senator”.
More broadly, many European officials worry that Trump would use a second term to impose blanket tariffs on imports that would damage the EU economy and are also concerned about the impact of his policies on the Nato alliance and the war in Ukraine.
Nils Schmid, foreign affairs spokesman of Germany’s ruling Social Democrats, described Vance as “more radical than Trump in his desire to suspend all further US military aid to Ukraine”.
He added: “In that respect he’s more isolationist than Trump.”
The US agreed to send an additional Patriot air defence system to Kyiv this month after the country pleaded for resources to repel almost daily Russian bombardments of civilian targets and critical infrastructure.
But Vance has repeatedly called for Ukraine to cede territory to end the war, arguing such a settlement would be in Washington’s best interests.
The position closely aligns with the terms laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin last month to begin peace talks.
Kyiv has rejected calls for peace talks with Moscow while Russia occupies large parts of the country. But Trump intends to demand such talks immediately if he wins the election and has “well-founded plans” on how to do so, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said after meeting him last week.
“The person who openly said ‘Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians’ cannot be the best representation of US politics,” said Inna Sovsun, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the liberal Golos party. “Russia is our common enemy.”
“The choice of Vance is a clear signal for us,” she added, arguing that Ukraine would need to “think of a new strategy of communication with the Americans” if Trump won the election.
Some European countries have welcomed the Vance nomination and expressed optimism about a possible second Trump term.
In a reference to policy on Ukraine, Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó posted a photo of Trump and Vance with the words “The hope for peace”, while Balázs Orbán, another top official, added on X: “A Trump-Vance administration sounds just right.”
Ukrainian officials see House Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to allow the $60bn assistance package through Congress this year as a glimmer of hope that future aid could continue during a Trump presidency.
While the former president, who casts a long shadow over House Republicans, has been sceptical of US aid to Ukraine, he suggested in April that he was open to the passage of the funding package.
Ihor Zhovkva, foreign policy adviser to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said he believed Trump would stick to a recent security deal between Washington and Kyiv.
“I haven’t actually heard Trump talking about the idea of slowing down US leadership of the world,” Zhovkva said.
But Trump allies such as Vance and Ric Grenell, who is seen as a top contender to be secretary of state, have signalled that they would seek to shift away from open-ended support for Kyiv if the former president wins in November.
Additional reporting by Guy Chazan, Lucy Fisher and Christopher Miller
