You can add two more stars to the game’s unfortunate tally of injured players, as Braves third baseman Austin Riley and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte were both added to the 10-day injured list on Monday. Riley, who has been one of Atlanta’s hottest hitters after an ice-cold start to the 2024 season, was removed from Sunday’s game against the Angels after a 97-mph Jack Kochanowicz sinker went very high and very inside, connecting with his wrist. Marte’s injury appears less serious than Riley’s, but a re-aggravated sprained ankle has put him on the shelf at a key moment in Arizona’s playoff run.
When I ran the numbers on baseball’s most injured teams last week, Atlanta came out second in terms of the most lost potential value, “beaten” by only the Dodgers. Riley, who has gotten MVP votes in each of the last three seasons, has had a bit of a down year, posting a .256/.322/.461 slash line and 2.4 WAR, which represents his weakest performance since before his 2021 breakout. But even if he hasn’t had a particularly sterling season overall, he’s become very important lately, especially as the injuries have piled up and the rest of the team’s offense has swooned. Riley’s seasonal line was as low as .220/.288/.330 back in mid-June; he’d gone more than a month without a homer and had only hit three on the season. Since June 13, however, Riley has led Atlanta’s lineup in WAR and hit 16 round-trippers:
Braves Hitters Since June 13
Monday’s MRI, which revealed a broken wrist, puts Riley out of action for 6-8 weeks, meaning that unless the Braves go deep into the playoffs, his 2024 season is probably over. While there’s never a good time to lose a middle-of-the-order hitter, Riley’s loss comes at a particularly awkward point for the Braves, as their seven games against the division-leading Phillies over the next week-and-a-half likely represent their last, best chance to seize the NL East, long-shot though it may be. The Braves seem to have arrested their fall in the standings, winning five of their last seven, but they’re still barely clinging to the last Wild Card spot, as they’re only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets and 3 1/2 in front of the Giants.
The silver lining — or arguably a dull gray one — is that Gio Urshela was suddenly available in free agency after being released by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday; the Braves signed him to a major league deal earlier today. The problem, of course, is that the only reason Urshela was available is that he’s having such a poor season that nobody wanted to risk picking up the pro-rated dollars remaining on his one-year, $1.5 million contract. Urshela had a solid little peak, putting up a 118 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR for the Yankees and Twins from 2019 to 2022, but after a fractured pelvis in 2023 and a miserable .243/.286/.333 line this year, he appears to be on the downslope of his career.
While I still think Nacho Alvarez Jr. would have been the best replacement despite his weak debut stint, Atlanta appears to want to play it safer, opting for the veteran Urshela over Luke Williams and maybe a bit of Whit Merrifield if Ozzie Albies returns in September. Without the Riley injury, ZiPS projected a 73% chance of the Braves holding off the Mets and Giants and making the playoffs; replacing Riley with Urshela drops that probability to 68%, while playing mostly Williams at third would cause it to dip a little further to 67%. Despite Urshela only being projected at replacement level or a hair above, paying $400,000 for 1% of a playoff spot is actually a reasonable value. To make room for Urshela on the 40-man roster, A.J. Minter, who is out with hip surgery, was moved to the 60-day IL. However, that doesn’t change the team’s projection, as I had already baked in the assumption that, at best, Minter was very likely to only get a few outings in the season’s final days.
As I mentioned above, Ketel Marte’s injury is far less serious than Riley’s. Marte originally sprained his ankle on August 10 after a Garrett Stubbs slide into second base. The Diamondbacks didn’t place him on the IL, opting to use him carefully in the last week, with a couple late-inning appearances and a game at DH. They’re taking no chances this time, though, and the hope is that he’ll be able to make a quick return after taking some time to recuperate.
As with Riley’s injury, Marte’s comes at a key point in the season for his team. After treading water earlier this season, the Diamondbacks have been one of baseball’s hottest teams, and along with the Padres, they’ve actually made the Dodgers feel at least mildly uncomfortable at the top of the NL West. Before the injury, Marte had been on the hottest run of his career, hitting .333/.422/.652 with 20 homers since the start of June. His 3.9 WAR over that timeframe ranked behind only Francisco Lindor’s 4.2 WAR among NL hitters. Combined with Arizona’s surge, Marte was putting together a reasonable MVP case. Assuming he only requires a minimum stay on the IL, the significant downgrade to Kevin Newman doesn’t represent a serious hit to the Snakes’ playoff hopes; ZiPS has them at 90% odds to make the playoffs, only a 0.5% drop from their projection without the injury. In the best-case scenario, the Diamondbacks would get Marte back just in time for a key four-game series against the Dodgers next week, their last opportunity to directly inflict punishment on their division rival in the standings.
The injuries to Riley and Marte don’t doom their teams to 2024 oblivion, but they do make their respective team’s challenges this year a bit more daunting. But hey, nobody said it would be easy.
