Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/19/24

Dan Szymborski: Chat Time Great Action Copter Passion Justice GO!!!!!

Champdo: Chances Parker Meadows plays this well next season?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what you call well!

Dan Szymborski: But ZiPS does have him up to 2.3 WAR in like 540 PA

Dan Szymborski: That he *appears* to be at least a mild positive in CF really makes him playable

Guest: Who is the biggest sleeper prospect for 2025 season based on ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: If you want to go REALLY deep, ZiPS is increasingly seeing Shay Whitcomb interesting, though it’s hard to call him a prospect

Dan Szymborski: One prospect that has moved up quite a bit is Joe Mack

Dan Szymborski: Jared Serna’s projections have moved quite a bit

Eric: Hi Dan!  Congrats on dropping 51 lbs.  I have dropped around 30 lbs over the past year and I am wondering if you feel like you have lost lean muscle mass from eating every other day.  I am doing intermittent fasting myself and am trying to find the optimal interval that maximizes weight loss and minimizes muscle loss.

Dan Szymborski: Considering how much of my weight is from drinking too much beer and sitting around, I’m not sure I had that much muscle mass to lose

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t feel any weaker. And still have quite a bit more to lose

rockie road: why not FIP- for WAR instead of Fip?  Seems like homer park factors are so varied that would make more sense.

Dan Szymborski: I know ZiPS has individual FIP park factors

Dan Szymborski: It might just be a case of stat overload. We have so much already

Jason N: What does an Arraez extension look like?  This dude fascinates me – he’s fun, he’s an all-star, about to break some batting title records, and really overrated.  I’d like to see the Padres extend him but at something closer to his real value vs. a reputation-enhanced value.

Dan Szymborski: I guess I can open up that one since I don’t have any specific plans to write a piece on him in the near future

RAGBRAI: List a few over performers and a few under performers from your projections from last spring.

Dan Szymborski: I did a whole piece on the ZiPS movers!

Dan Szymborski: Those are inevitably people overperforming/underperforming

Dan Szymborski: I might do another update after the season, but I’m not sure about it

Dan Szymborski: since I already did one in July, and I don’t like to repeat some of these standard “tentpole” pieces as it feels kind of lazy

Dan Szymborski: and really, for something like just seeing who *did* overperform/underperform, you can still download preseason projections and compare pretty easily, so it seems a bit lazy to do an article for something that someone can do in five minutes

Dan Szymborski: Or, I coudl simply be misreading what people want to read from me, which is certainly possible

guy: what does zips say about 2027 walcott vs de vries?

Dan Szymborski: At least for the moment, it’s going to prefer Walcott as he’s slightly farther ahead in the “queue”

Nate: Did Michael Massey curse the Royals by hitting that bird during batting practice

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t the Diamondbacks win the WS the year Randy Johnson killed the bird?

Dk: four teams for three wild card spots in the nl your gut feeling on who makes  it?

Dan Szymborski: Gut I think it’s Mets

Well-Beered Englishman: White Sox tracker. They need to go:
8-1 to be better than the 03 Tigers
5-4 or worse to have the most losses since the Cleveland Spiders
2-7 or worse to have the worst win % since the Cleveland Spiders
1-8 to reach 125

Zach: What happened to Nolan Jones this year? Not that I thought he was going to be a star or a foundational piece, but after last year, it seemed reasonable to think he’d be a solid player to flip to some contender down the road.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t…know? His barrels just disappeared. It’s almost like there’s a mechanical issue

Dan Szymborski: Like 2023 was basically consistent with how he was hitting

Guest: Who’s a good long term player comp for Jackson Merrill?

Dan Szymborski: Well, since I have ZiPS open now, his top comp in ZiPS is not good (Rich Coggins) but it gets way better from there, with the next comps being Willie Davis, Vlad Sr., Jesus Alou, Reggie Smith, Tommy Davis, Vada Pinson, Grady Sizemore

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS only suggests 4/70 for Arraez covering next year and first three free agency

Dan Szymborski: His 2B defensive projection is -36 runs over the four years, which really hurts

dcejoseph: If you were the Padres, what would be your preferred first round matchup?

Dan Szymborski: Arizona maybe? Arizona’s weakness, front-end SP, is magnified a bit in a postseason format

Dan Szymborski: and rolling Cease, King, Darvish may give them best chance to stop Arizona offense

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: This is not an eating Thursday

TW: It seems like there’s a huge benefit to (1) getting to choose any reliever to face the top of the opposing team’s lineup and (2) getting to choose the first pocket of opposing hitters faced by your own starting pitcher/bulk guy. If I was a manager, I feel like I’d want to use openers for any of my below average starting pitchers (e.g., my 4/5 starters), provided I have enough leverage arms in the pen to cover both the beginning and end of games. Is there a reason other than protecting SP egos why more teams don’t do this?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, managing is a LOT of managing people

Dan Szymborski: the question is how much of an advantage do you really get

Dan Szymborski: Baseball isn’t really a game where you can carve out massive tactical edges, so you have to ask yourself if the juice is worth the squeeze

AJ Hinch: Indians and Twins used Clase and Duran in the 9th last night in a tie game. Think there’s any merit to teams saving their highest leverage guy for the tenth?

Dan Szymborski: I personally take the high-leverage situation that exists now over one that may exist later

Dan Szymborski: there’s less margin for error with a one-run lead than a tie game

Lavendar: is atlantas Marcell Ozuna option decision really so obvious? Jorge Soler is guaranteed another 2yrs at the same $16m Ozuna is. hes awful in the OF, but probably better than Ozuna, and Acuñas probably gonna need dh time, right? i dont wanna lose Ozunas bat, but that Soler trade isnt looking good right now, and im not sure how were gonna make this work.

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re overthinking it

Dan Szymborski: withj the $1m buyout, it’s basically a 1/15 decision, and that’s an easy one

Guest: Who’s the most underrated player on the nationals?

Dan Szymborski: Jacob Young maybe?

Alan Holst: Hi. Thanks for the chat! Great site. I especially like your additional plus stats. I do have 3 issues I would like to address. (1) Am I missing how to do it, or why don’t you have  leaderboards that combibne pitching and batting? (2) I think any Defensive WAR is fuzzy, but fWAR for catchers is definitely too speculative. Catcher defense is extremely important, but the quantifiable metrics are insufficient to justify the impact it has on player ratings. (3) I understand the need for advertising, but the pop ups at FanGraphs are not just annoying, they often make it hard to navigate. Thanks again for the chat, and your fabulous site.

Dan Szymborski: I just don’t think we’ve had a lot of demand for combined pitching/batting leaderboards

Dan Szymborski: fWAR for catchers may be speculative, but it’s speculative in that there may be aspects missing, not that there’s anything wrong with the current stuff

Dan Szymborski: and you basically have your best model of defense or you’re simply not giving any value statistic to catchers

Dan Szymborski: as for advertising, that’s an ongoing issue, which is why we’re moving to a metered paywall. we want to get away from the horrible ads

Austin Wells: Am I a real RoY candidate or just a product of Yankees media?

Dan Szymborski: eral

Dan Szymborski: real

Josh: Tiger or Twins to make playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Tigers

Matan: Hey Dan. In the same vein of under-performers, are the White Sox (so far) the most unlikely underperforming team in ZiPS history?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: if they finish at 40, that’s a 23 game underperformance

Dan Szymborski: There’s a -30 (2018 Orioles)

Dan Szymborski: A -24 (2017 Giants)

Dan Szymborski: and another -23 (2005 Dodgers)

Mark M: What should the Cubs do on the infield next year with Matt Shaw needing a place to play?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Cubs trade Hoerner for a need this offseason and I’m not sure that’s not the best idea

Dan Szymborski: Especially as it seems like Bellinger won’t opt out

Dan Szymborski: if Bellinger opted out, you could see one of the infielders end up in a corner, but him staying makes that tricky

Guest: Michael Toglia break out next year?

Dan Szymborski: I would say no

Dan Szymborski: He’s not that young and his résumé is weak

Insert Witty Name Here: Thoughts on BanananananaBall? Just read the book, it was interesting and seemed Globetrotter-esque.

Dan Szymborski: My knowledge depth on the Savannah Bananas is not that deep

Sirras: @Alan Holst – May I recommend becoming a member and enjoying an ad-free experience?

Jonathan: Out of curiosity, does ZiPS use stuff like EV, LA, spin/movement characteristics, etc. for minor league players in AAA (where the HawkEye data are publicly available)?  If you had access to these data for all minor leaguers (or, for example, had free access to TrackMan data for all minor leaguers and could do a slightly outdated version of StatCast), do you think incorporating them for A+ hitters and AA hitters/pitchers would add value to ZiPS’ projections?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does use statcast data for minors and has for a while

Dan Szymborski: There’s no stuff aspect in ZiPS right now. Working on my own ZiPS model is a long-term project of mine, and it’s nothing I’m comfortable incorporating now

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like to throw things in the model until things are thoroughly tested, and the process of adding things to ZiPS is years

Fordy: Are there any significant changes in Willy Adames’ long-term projections compared to last May?

Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I just closed ZiPS!

Dan Szymborski: I guess I shoudl have left it open

Dan Szymborski: reopning it

Dan Szymborski: OK, as of right now (or, though 9/17 more accurately), Adames have a five-year WAR projection of 17.2 WAR. Lemme check May now

Dan Szymborski: It was 16.0 in May

Dan Szymborski: May 15th run

Dan Szymborski: and 16.3 at the start of the season

Dan Szymborski: I assume you didn’t mean last May as in 2023?

Please Anwser dan: Best jake in the mlb is it burger?

Dan Szymborski: Among Jakes, I’d take Cronenworth and The over Burger

Dan Szymborski: McCarthy too

Dan Szymborski: probably Irvin

Phil: How has Ohtani’s projection for next year changed with the year he has been having?

Dan Szymborski: He’s gone up like 1.5 WAR in 2025 I think

Ryan S: As long as we’re doing player comps for Jacksons, who are Chourio’s top comps at this point?

Dan Szymborski: dangit guys

Dan Szymborski: Reggie Smith, Jose Cardenal, Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis, Rocco Baldelli, Claudell Washington, Paul Blair, Vada PInson, Rick Manning, Amos Otis, Ellis Valentine, Bobby Tolan, Ken Griffey Jr, Grady Zizemore

Dan Szymborski: zizemore?

trav: On the Whitcomb sleeper comment, how does he get every day playing time? only if they let Bregman walk? he does look like he has good plate discipline and batted ball quality.

Dan Szymborski: He could be a utility guy and sneak a bunch of AB that way

Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood: Did the O’s sneak a “backsies” clause in the Trevor Rodgers trade they could activate?

Dan Szymborski: I think he always more of a 2025/2026 acquisition

Dan Szymborski: didn’t I do one of those this year?

Triple Crown: With ~10 games left and 0.010 points of BA seperating Witt and Judge, is there any chance of a triple crown?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, but I’d guess…15%?

LostatSea: Hypothetically say the ways we view RV, WAR, performance, etc. are all wrong, where would the ‘hole’ in our models be (what area of the game/players performance are we under or over-valuing)?

Dan Szymborski: I think holes are RELATIVELY small

Dan Szymborski: a bunch of small little holes I think are more likely

Dan Szymborski: like how are we evaluating baserunning, how do we value flexibility, etc

Dan Szymborski: We’ve gotten most of the low hanging fruit

Will: Many fans believe that hitters with good plate discipline tend to age more gracefully. Have you ever investigated this?

Dan Szymborski: Aging doesn’t really fit into neat barrels

Dan Szymborski: Though that would be a *general* statement that isn’t bad

Dan Szymborski: bBut there’s nothing like X player will age well and Y player will not

Dan Szymborski: It’s like those three month weather projections

Dan Szymborski: where there might be something atmospheric and X state has a 60% chance of exceeding their normal temeprature or precipitation by X

Archer: Colt Keith is matching his projection for this year, but arrived there in a much different way than I would have expected (average bat, above average defense)

Dan Szymborski: He fixed his slow start nicely

AltuveBot3k: Looks like Altuve will fall short of 200 hits this year, but a pretty decent campaign on that front. Can you update odds of his getting to 3k?

Dan Szymborski: 44% right now

Gasblaster: So, what game have you been playing?

Dan Szymborski: Just finished Trails Through Daybreak II: Crimson Sin with the fan translation

Dan Szymborski: and this is peak MLB the Show season for me

Dan Szymborski: The former game wasn’t super well-received as it didn’t really push the underlying plot too far, but I enjoyed the game’s plot in and of itself

Fordy: Lindor is locked for the HOF. But how likely Correa is to make the HOF.

Dan Szymborski: I think he gets there

Doug: Does Ha Seong Kim get a qualifying offer? Does he reject it?

Dan Szymborski: Yes and Yes

Sirras: Who is a player you enjoy watching because of aesthetics, not because of stats (regardless of whether or not they have good stats)?

Dan Szymborski: Arraez

Kingston: Hey dan Whose the best jake in mlb?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, is this a repeat or did I answer a question about Jakes without posting the question?

Dan Szymborski: Because if I didn’t post anything, that must have sounded batshit insane

Guest: I avoided membership for a while in part because the ads were so obtrusive and unnavigable that it almost felt like blackmail

Dan Szymborski: At the end of the day, ads have gotten more annoying across the spectrum

Dan Szymborski: and we either have to make money from ads, make money from subscriptions, or not be a going concern

Guardcore Clevelander: Dan, how are the cats?

Dan Szymborski: They are fine

mmddyyyy: do you travel for work and present at conferences?

Dan Szymborski: I travel at times, though I wouldn’t call it a BIG part of my job

Dan Szymborski: I’ll do panels, but I’m not a big presentation guy

laughingstock: What, uh, is ZIPS? Like the underlying model. Is it one big neural net? Or a bunch of models glued together?

Dan Szymborski: At its core, it’s a nonparametric model with a whole bunch of other models glued on awkwardly

Dan Szymborski: You could call the whole thing an exercise in supervised machine learning

Guest: Apologies if you’ve answered this in previous chats- how much has Vientos improved his long-term outlook per ZiPS? If I remember correctly, ZiPS was more bullish than others to begin with.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’ve had any Vientos Qs lately

Dan Szymborski: Hang on, I didn’t close ZiPS this time

Dan Szymborski: 10.0 five-year WAR to start the season, up to 13.4 now

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Dan – I am surprised more people aren’t talking about the Tigers. They did the thing everyone always says teams out of contention should do and promoted all their prospects and stopped playing their “steady veterans”…and lo and behold, they are in the thick of the Wild Card race. The way Hinch and Fetter have managed the pitching staff, turning non-descript AAA arms like Brant Hurter into effective pitchers racking up the outs…10/10, no notes!

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda funny they traded one of their best pitchers and then they surged

Dude: Not sure if this is your area of expertise but in the last week or so the Yankees have dramatically risen to having the highest world series odds in your playoff predictor.

Dan Szymborski: They have, but that’s because the divisional probabilities have shot up so much

Dan Szymborski: The different in probability between getting a bye and not getting a bye is the biggest factor really

mmddyyyy: How much sleep do you get?

Dan Szymborski: In total, probably about 7 hours a day

mmddyyyy: Is David Appelman the owner?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan: I have an interest in what advertisers thing is interesting to Fangraph readers. Occasionally it was difficult to physically scroll when the ad was big but this never delayed me more than a second or two

Dan Szymborski: Most likely ads are reading your cookies

Dan Szymborski: So if you get tentacle porn advertisements, you should probably look in the mirror!

OddBall Herrera: Tell me about it, re: ads.  There’s so much campaign money going around that each party has paid an intern to follow me everywhere I go and whisper slogans in my ear

mmddyyyy: Does ZiPS change when the rules change?

Dan Szymborski: Where it’s possible

Dan: I really like the color blue the appears when a fangraphs chatter posts your question.

Dan Szymborski: My interface doesn’t show that unfortunately so I’m not quite sure what it refers to!

Dan Szymborski: I try not to look at names when I post questions, so they got lucky!

Apparently Yip Yip: It’s a really nice shade of blue, Dan

Dan Szymborski: In another shade of blue, it’s time for me to head out from another episode

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming and see you all next time! And thanks for your support of FanGraphs