Welcome back, everyone. I hope you are enjoying your start to (hopefully) your three-day weekend.
As we make our tour around the majors and talk about up-and-coming dynasty players, we land in the Pacific Northwest this weekend and feature a pitcher for the Seattle Mariners.
Bryce Miller is now in his second season with the Mariners. Originally drafted in the 38th round by Miami in the 2018 draft. Miller decided to instead transfer from Blinn College in Brenham, Texas, and head to College Station to pitch for Texas A&M. The move worked out for Miller.
Three years later he was drafted in the fourth round by Seattle in 2021 and by 2023 he was pitching in the majors.
So let’s talk about Bryce Miller, an up-and-coming dynasty player.
STATISTICS
| SEASON | W-L | G-GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA | 8-6 | 54-10 | 110.2 | 141 | 57 | 4.07 | 1.355 | 11.5 | 4.6 |
| Minors | 7-6 | 36-33 | 162.2 | 196 | 51 | 3.93 | 1.119 | 10.8 | 2.8 |
| 2023 – Sea | 8-7 | 25-25 | 131.1 | 119 | 26 | 4.32 | 1.142 | 8.2 | 1.8 |
| 2024 – Sea | 3-5 | 10-10 | 58.2 | 56 | 16 | 3.53 | 0.972 | 8.6 | 2.5 |
Despite not being drafted out of high school and eventually only in the fourth round by the Mariners, Miller shot through the Seattle system as if he is Paul Skenes. And Miller has done this as a starter. During his time at Texas A&M, Miller was used exclusively as a reliever his first two seasons before making 10 starts out of 13 appearances in 2021.
The Tools
Bryce Miller has a fastball that can match any starter in baseball as he has touched 99 mph but sits at 95 mph, ranking in the 67th percentile. No matter what speed he is throwing, he has had great success with the pitch. Opposing hitters are hitting only .167 against the pitch this season with a .333 slugging percentage and a 30.5 Whiff%.
Last season Miller threw his fastball at basically the same speed, but he did not have the same success as hitters had a .256/.450 (AVG/SLG) slash line. So what is the difference?
Last year Miller’s fastball was pretty flat. In 2023, his fastball averaged 3.5 inches of horizontal break and 11.8 inches of vertical break. This season Miller has been able to get some more movement on his four-seamer as it is breaking 6.2 inches across the plate with 12.1 inches of drop.
His sinker has been a better pitch this season as well thanks to more movement. Last year the pitch averaged 95.1 mph and had 14.1 inches of horizontal break and 17.9 inches of drop. This year Miller is averaging 94.7 mph and it is breaking at 19.9 inches with 17.9 inches of drop. The result – a batting average of .240 compared to .260 last year.
In addition to his four-seamer and sinker, Miller features a slider and sweeper and a split finger he added this season. He has ditched his changeup and curve, pitches he threw only 5.6% and 0.9% of the time last year.
Miller’s split has become a very effective pitch for him. Acting as his changeup, it comes in at 84 mph. Miller is throwing the pitch 17.9% of the time and hitters are managing only .154 batting average with a .212 slugging percentage and 28.6 Whiff%.
Bryce Miller has always featured a great power slider that has good depth, dropping an average of 34.3 inches the last two seasons. But it is a pitch he is featuring less this year. He threw it 19% of the time last season and the usage is down to 7.5% this year.
This has been the biggest area of improvement for Miller since joining the Mariners. In college he had a 4.6% walk rate, but that quickly fell to 2.8% after he got drafted and pitched in the minors. Last season his walk rate was 1.8% but it has increased slightly this year to 2.5%.
One of the reasons for the walk rate to go down is likely due to the fact that he is now more of a pitcher than a thrower. With Texas A&M, all he had to do was come out of the pen and throw gas. A walk was not likely going to hurt him because he limited the amounts of hits he allowed while posting an 11.5 K/9 rate. Once he became a starter, he started to limit his walks, though that has also meant a decline in his strikeout rate.
In the minors, he had a 10.8 K/9 rate. That fell to 8.2/9 last season and it currently sits at 8.6/9 this season.
The Verdict
For the season, Miller has churned out some good numbers. His ERA sits at 3.53 and he has a great WHIP of 0.972. But those numbers are aided by a great month of April.
Last month he posted a 2.04 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. In 35.3 innings he allowed only 19 hits with 12 walks while striking out 39 for a 9.9 K/9 rate (with a 3.1 BB/9 rate. However, the month of May has not been kind to Miller. In four starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. His walk rate has dropped to 1.5/9, but his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.6/9 and he is allowing nearly a hit per inning (22 hits in 23.1 innings of work).
What has really hurt Miller is the long ball. After allowing five homers the first month (not a great number), he has already served up six long balls this month, like this one to Gunnar Henderson.
May has not been kind to Miller, but I am still a firm believer in his ability. Just last week I traded for him in one of my dynasty leagues. The trade was a true case of buy low as the other owner already soured on him. When offered Miller for a prospect, I jumped on the chance to add him to my rotation.
Bryce Miller still features a good fastball and his split has really become a great difference maker. The league is obviously making adjustments to him, but that was bound to happen.
The key will be Miller’s ability to adjust. I have no doubt that he will and will serve as a very effective No. 3 starter. He is not going to be an ace. But I am counting on him to be the pitcher he has been overall – giving me a 3.50 ERA with a low WHIP and a decent number of strikeouts.
