Cooperstown Notebook: The 2024 Progress Report, Part III

It’s no secret that Shohei Ohtani’s game is missing a dimension. After three straight seasons of excelling both at the plate and on the mound — a span that netted him two American League MVP awards, a runner-up spot, and a fourth-place finish in the Cy Young Award voting — the two-way phenom underwent his second ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction last September, and won’t pitch again until 2025. Even so, while moving from the Angels to the Dodgers via a record-setting 10-year, $700 million free agent deal, the now 30-year-old superstar is amid another dominant season, one that could earn him a third MVP award and bolster a unique case for the Hall of Fame.

Ohtani is a unicorn. No player in 20th- or 21st-century AL/NL history, not even Babe Ruth in his last two seasons with the Red Sox (1918–19), has sustained regular duty in both a rotation and a lineup over a full season, let alone excelled at both endeavors. From 2021 — after returning from a lost, pandemic-shortened season in which he threw just 1.2 innings — to ’23, Ohtani did just that. He hit a combined .277/.379/.585 across those three seasons, posting the majors’ second-highest slugging percentage and fourth-highest wRC+ (157) and home run total (124), as well as the fourth-highest strikeout rate (31.4%) and sixth-lowest ERA (2.84) of any pitcher with at least 300 innings. By FanGraphs’ reckoning, his 26.1 WAR for the span was 4.9 more than second-ranked Aaron Judge, while by that of Baseball Reference, the margin was 7.4 WAR (28.5 to 21.1).

While he’s not pitching every sixth or seventh day this season, Ohtani is balancing his daily presence in the Dodgers’ lineup with the typically arduous rehab from UCL surgery — he did not undergo a traditional Tommy John surgery but a hybrid procedure that involved both an artificial internal brace and the insertion of a tendon to repair the damaged ligament. Though he’s gone through streaks and slumps, you’d hardly know it from his numbers, as he’s hitting .312/.399/.635 while leading the National League in slugging percentage, homers (31), wRC+ (185), and position player WAR (5.5 fWAR, 5.7 bWAR). With six more steals, he’ll notch his first 30-homer/30-steal season, and with 0.4 more bWAR (or 1.1 more fWAR), he’ll set a career high for position player WAR. Per his rest-of-season ZiPS forecast, he’s projected to add another 2.1 WAR. (For the rest of this piece, I’ll be referring to the B-Ref version of WAR unless otherwise indicated.)

Some day, Hall of Fame voters will have to reckon with Ohtani. I’m already of the mind that if he’s still pulling double duty in his 10th season (2027), he’ll have my vote regardless of what the numbers say, because what he’s doing is remarkable. WAR and JAWS weren’t really built to handle a case like his, and not just because his ability to save his team a roster spot is probably worth some uncounted fraction of a win per year. Even so, it’s amazing that he’s totaled 40.2 WAR through his first seven seasons considering he had a modest 6.1 WAR from 2018–20, including negative value (-0.4 WAR) in ’20, not to mention the fact that he’s less than two-thirds of the way through his most productive campaign as a hitter.

That 40.2 WAR places Ohtani among the handful of active players to reach the 40-WAR peak threshold — that is, those who have amassed that value in their best seven seasons, which accounts for 50% of a player’s JAWS. As I noted in the second installment of this year’s annual Hall of Fame progress report, 76% of the eligible position players (not active, recently retired, or permanently ineligible) with such peak scores are enshrined. Given the hybrid nature of his career, Ohtani doesn’t have a career/peak/WAR line directly comparable to anyone except perhaps 19th-century pitcher-turned-infielder (and manager, pioneering labor leader, and executive) John Montgomery “Monte” Ward, who totaled 62.5 career WAR, 40.7 peak WAR and 51.6 JAWS in his career. Ohtani is at 40.2/40.2/40.2 now, and by the time he’s got the necessary 10 years to qualify for election, he should have 50s across the board. Of the 38 players to reach a 50-WAR peak, 32 are enshrined, and four aren’t eligible (the active Mookie Betts and Mike Trout, the recently-retired Albert Pujols, and the banned-for-life Shoeless Joe Jackson), leaving only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, who are both outside due to PED connections.

With that, it’s time to dive into Part III of my annual Hall of Fame progress report; Part I, covering pitchers, is here, and Part II, covering catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and shortstops, is here. Unless otherwise indicated, all current WAR figures use the Baseball Reference version, all rest-of-season projections use the ZiPS’ Depth Charts version, which incorporates playing time estimates, and all stats are through Wednesday.

Third Base

With 10 Gold Gloves, eight All-Star appearances, and a peak score that ranks 13th, two spots ahead of 2023 inductee Scott Rolen, Arenado appears to be a Hall of Famer in the making. But as with teammate Paul Goldschmidt, it’s tough to write off his 2022 to ’23 decline — from 7.7 to 2.4 in terms of WAR, from 150 to 107 in terms of wRC+, and from 19 to 1 in terms of DRS — as a fluke when his ’24 numbers have fallen further. The 33-year-old is hitting just .266/.321/.386 (102 wRC+), and his Statcast data suggests those numbers could be worse, with his average exit velo, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate in the ninth percentile or lower, and his .351 xSLG in the 17th percentile. His .121 ISO is by far the lowest mark of his career; even excluding his time with the Rockies, it’s 104 points lower than his 2021–23 ISO (.225) with the Cardinals.

Defensively, Arenado’s -3 DRS marks his first dip below average in that metric; he fell from 13.0 to -0.9 in UZR last year (his first negative showing in any of the major metrics) and is at -0.4 this year, while his FRV has fallen from 11 to 4 to 1 over the past three seasons. He had shoulder issues a few years ago and lower back issues late last season, but he ruled out past injuries when asked about his struggles in May, pointing to mechanics and mental frustration. He still hasn’t figured it out but will need to sooner or later, as he’s over six points shy of the JAWS standard for third basemen.

Paralleling Arenado, Machado has fallen from a 6.7-WAR 2022 performance that helped him place second in the NL MVP voting to 2.9 WAR last year and 0.8 this year, with a wRC+ that’s declined from 153 to 114 to 109. At least the 32-year-old Padre’s situation has a more obvious explanation. Last October, he underwent surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow, which had bothered him for parts of two seasons. He was limited to DH duty last September and through most of April, and hit just .241/.293/.361 (89 wRC+) through May, but he’s produced a more representative .296/.353/.493 (137 wRC+) since.

Like Arenado, Machado has slipped defensively; his -4 FRV, -2 DRS, and -1.7 UZR are uncharacteristically bad, based on declining range, not throwing issues. He still has work to do to solidify his Hall case, but as he’s signed through 2033 (!), he’ll have ample opportunity to push towards 3,000 hits (he has 1,834, though his odds were down to 3% as of last September) and 500 homers (he has 326).

Ramírez continues to lay track towards Cooperstown. He crossed the 40-WAR peak threshold last year and he’s still going strong; this is already his seventh-best season, and he just surpassed David Wright to move into 26th in the JAWS rankings — in about 200 fewer games. A peek past his thoroughly in-character 132 wRC+ (.272/.324/.514) reveals his lowest OBP since 2015, his lowest walk rate since ’14 (7.1%), his highest chase rate since ’13 (31.3%), and his highest strikeout rate since ’21 (13.4%), but he’s nonetheless been plenty productive and entertaining while helping the Guardians take up residence atop the AL Central. He’s already matched last year’s 24 homers, and with 18 steals, he’s got a shot at his second 30-homer/30-steal season (he did it in 2018); he’s actually on pace to challenge that season’s career high of 39 homers.

With 1,434 hits and 240 homers, Ramírez’s counting stats don’t look Hall-caliber yet, but he’s in just his age-31 season. The six-time All-Star and three-time top-three finisher in MVP voting definitely appears on his way.

Also: Early in his career — particularly after his 8.9-WAR 2019 season, when he was 25 — Alex Bregman looked Cooperstown-bound, but it took him over three seasons to produce his next 8.9 WAR (the pandemic didn’t help), and he hasn’t had a 5.0-WAR season since, topping out at 4.9 last year. He hasn’t been an All-Star in half a decade. The 30-year-old Bregman is currently hitting just .257/.319/.411 (108 wRC+) with 2.2 WAR; while it could still come together for him, his 37.2/34.4/35.8 line leaves him about nine points behind Ramírez, who’s only about 18 months older. Matt Chapman got a comparatively late start in the majors at 24, and since his back-to-back 7-WAR seasons in 2018 and ’19, he hasn’t topped 4.4 WAR, though he’s at 4.3 now. He’s a four-time Gold Glove winner whose 101 DRS is powering his 35.5/34.1/35.0 line. Offensively, he’s extremely strikeout prone (26.9% rate for his career) but otherwise pretty consistent; while posting a 110 wRC+ over the past four years, his annual performances haven’t varied by more than nine points in either direction.

Left Field

Yelich totaled 80 homers and 14.3 WAR in 2018-19 while leading the NL in batting average, slugging percentage, and wRC+ in both years, winning NL MVP in the former and placing second in the latter. At that point he was 27 years old and figured to improve his 31.8 JAWS quickly given how top-heavy his career had been, but between the pandemic and lower back woes, he has rarely approached that level since, slugging just .407 from 2020–23 while maxing with 3.6 WAR last year. His robust .315/.406/.504 (155 wRC+) performance this year has rekindled some hope, but he already missed nearly four weeks due to a lower back strain, and landed on the IL again on Wednesday due to further inflammation. While season-ending surgery was on the table, he’s going the nonsurgical route for now, which still doesn’t mean a rapid return.

Center Field

Speaking of bad injury news, Trout was limited to 82 games last year due to a fractured hamate bone, and played just one game after July 3; his .263/.367/.490 (134 wRC+) slash line was well below anything he’s done since his 2011 cup of coffee. Just 29 games into this season, the 32-year-old three-time MVP was sidelined by surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. The injury generally has a four-to-six-week timetable, but it took him nearly three months to begin a rehab stint, and he played just two innings for Triple-A Salt Lake City before exiting due to discomfort in the knee. He flew back to Southern California for further evaluation.

Trout has played more than 82 games just once in the past five seasons, missing additional time due to the pandemic (2020), a right calf strain (2021), and a rare back condition called T5 costovertebral dysfunction (2022). He’s still an 11-time All-Star who ranks fifth in JAWS among center fielders — and third in peak score behind only Willie Mays and Ty Cobb — but it’s frustrating to watch him endure these annual miseries, to say nothing of his being deprived of the postseason by the Angels’ perpetual decrepitude. He’ll still be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but like Ken Griffey Jr., one increasingly discussed in terms of “what might have been” given the numerous absences of during his 30s.

McCutchen is now in the second year of his Pittsburgh reunion, but after hitting for a 115 wRC+ last year (his highest mark since 2019), he’s slipped to 103 this year (.226/.327/.388). Just about everything I wrote about him in this space last year still applies. While he’s a five-time All-Star, an MVP, and a Gold Glove winner who helped the Pirates to three straight playoff berths after a two-decade absence — and may help them return this year — his defensive metrics have suppressed his WAR and dampened his case on the JAWS front.

McCutchen would almost certainly have a peak score above 40.0 had he played average defense in center field, but in his seven best offensive seasons by WAR’s batting runs component, he was a combined 36 runs below average according to DRS; overall, he’s been 77 runs below average via that measure. Using a 10-runs-equals-one-win exchange rate for some back-of-the-envelope math, that would translate to a 56.9/41.9/49.4 line if he’d played average defense straight across the board. That’s still about nine points below the JAWS standard, just below Willie Davis and Jimmy Wynn, and above Cesar Cedeño and Vada Pinson, fondly remembered players who are short of legendary. McCutchen fits in well with that group.

Right Field

Here begins a run of players who have shifted positions in recent years but are still classified as right fielders by JAWS, as it’s where they’ve accrued the most value. After an MVP-caliber 2023 season split between right field and second base (his original position) with a bit of shortstop mixed in, Betts has played 65 games at short, 16 at second and none in the outfield this year. The 31-year-old dynamo has hit .304/.405/.488 (156 wRC+) with 10 homers, nine steals and iffy defense at short (4 DRS, -3 FRV, -4.7 UZR), but he’s been shelved since an errant fastball fractured a metacarpal in his left hand on June 16. Cleared to swing a bat earlier this week, he could be roughly two weeks away from returning.

Though his counting stats (1,571 hits, 262 homers, 181 steals) need burnishing, Betts is a slam dunk for the Hall as far as JAWS is concerned. He needed just seven seasons — the first of those a 52-gamer — to blow past the peak standard for right fielders, which can happen when you bank seasons of 10.7 and 9.5 WAR. He improved that peak score for three straight seasons, capped by last year’s 8.3 WAR, his third time leading his league. He’s now eighth in JAWS among right fielders, and fourth in peak score, behind only (ahem) Ruth, Stan Musial, and Henry Aaron. Add to that eight All-Star appearances, six Gold Gloves, two Wold Series rings, an MVP award, and the possibility of adding to all of those categories in the coming seasons, and you’ve got a guy who can start polishing his induction day speech.

The big fella has added 8.8 WAR and 8.2 JAWS since last year’s report, and he’s doing things that are nearly on par with his record-setting 2022 campaign. After batting just .180/.315/.348 (93 wRC+) with three homers through April 23, the 32-year-old slugger has hit .348/.477/.773 (242 wRC+) with 32 homers since, and overall leads the AL in homers, OBP (.438), SLG (.669), wRC+ (206), and WAR. He’s done all this while playing 65 games in center, seven in right, four in left (a first at the major league level) and 27 at DH. A second MVP award and third 50-homer season are well within reach.

Despite his late start — he was Rookie of the Year at age 25 — Judge already ranks 25th in JAWS among right fielders, just above Hall of Famers Enos Slaughter, Elmer Flick, and Willie Keeler, and one spot below Gary Sheffield. If he matches the above projection, he’ll tie Bobby Abreu for 21st, one spot ahead of Vladimir Guerrero. Needless to say, he’s blown past the 40-WAR peak threshold like it’s the left field wall at Yankee Stadium and could join the 50-WAR peak club by season’s end. Yet remarkably, Judge has only 957 hits to his name, along with 292 homers. Somehow, the Hall will find room.

A broken thumb and right elbow issues that culminated in Tommy John surgery limited Harper to just 225 games in 2022–23, and basically ended his career in the outfield. After the initial elbow injury, and upon making the quickest return from the surgery of any position player, he served as a DH, then about a year ago debuted as a first baseman. It took him a while to recover his power, but he’s currently mashing at a .292/.388/.568 clip, ranking third in the NL in both homers (23) and wRC+ (162), and playing above-average defense (4 DRS, 4 FRV, 1.6 UZR).

Harper is a true superstar who has been thriving in the spotlight since gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16. His magnetism goes beyond the stats, not that the numbers aren’t impressive. Aside from two big MVP-winning seasons — 9.7 WAR in 2015 and then 5.9 in ’21 — he’s topped 5.0 WAR just one other time (5.2 WAR as a rookie in 2012). The rest of his peak score is seasons of 3.7–4.8 WAR, including this one, but he’s on pace for about 6.0 WAR, and the 40-WAR peak threshold is an eventuality. Signed through 2031, he owns a career 143 wRC+ (tied with Freddie Freeman for fifth among active players with at least 4,000 PA), and appears well on his way to 500 homers. What’s more, he’s carved out a reputation as one of the great postseason players, hitting .276/.383/.613 (165 wRC+) with 16 homers in 215 PA, and will get to add to that highlight reel this fall.

Stanton has netted zero WAR since this time last year, as his offensive skills have continued to erode. His best contact is still as loud as anybody’s in the game, but he doesn’t make enough of it; his 32% strikeout rate is a career high, and his 7.1% walk rate a career low. After a career-worst 89 wRC+ last year, he’s rebounded to 124 (.246/.302/.492) and bashed 18 homers to run his total to 420, but he’s missed the last month due to a left hamstring strain, the latest in a litany of leg injuries that have limited him to 460 games over the past five seasons and change, about 92 per 162 games. If he reaches Cooperstown, it won’t be on the strength of his advanced stats but his breathtaking power. It’s 500 homers or bust.

Already established as a generational talent, the 25-year-old Soto is in the midst of his best full season, and on the biggest stage after being traded to the Yankees as part of a seven-player blockbuster last December. He’s hitting an unreal .311/.435/.599 (192 wRC+); all of those stats are second in the AL except for his batting average, which is third, while his 26 homers and 6.2 WAR both rank fourth. He projects to blow past his career-best 7.1 WAR from 2021, a pending high that owes something to his move back to right field and his work to shore up his defense; relative to last season, he’s improved by more than a win in terms of both DRS (from -6 to 6) and FRV (from -7 to 4). Set to reach free agency this fall, he’ll command a fleet of Brinks trucks, and maybe an island.

Soto is now in his seventh season, but two of them (his 2018 rookie season and then the shortened one in ’20) are abbreviated, and this one isn’t complete. He’ll reach a 40-WAR peak well before age-30, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets to 45 or even 50. Not that his case hinges upon it, but via ZiPS he has a 13% chance of reaching 3,000 hits, odds exceeded only by Freeman and Jose Altuve.

Also: With 41 homers, 73 steals, and an NL-high 170 wRC+ Ronald Acuña Jr. had a season for the ages last year, banking an MVP award, but for the second time in four years, he’s out due to a torn ACL. Throw in a mid-2018 debut and the pandemic, and he’s played 120 games or more just twice in seven seasons, and so while he’s produced 5.8 WAR per 162 games (a pace about midway between Soto’s 6.4 and Harper’s 5.1) there’s plenty of slack in his 25.9/.25.9/25.9 line. If he can stay on the field, we’ll discuss him plenty in the coming years.