Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/5/24

Tech support: Embedding on fangraphs website is broken. Missing opening <

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh

Dan Szymborski: OK, this seems to be fixed now

Dan Szymborski: But I’ll have to type pretty slowly since nobody’s in here yet

Oddball Herrera: So I was looking at Dylan Crews’ first home run.  It was a homer in 30/30 parks, but had an expected BA of like .330…I understand that a 30/30 homer may not have a 1.000 xBA, but isn’t it a little odd that what was apparently a no-doubter was by xBA much more often than not an out?

Oddball Herrera: My last question makes me wonder what the ‘worst’ 30/30 ballparks home run by xBA looked like

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never really looked at this as I’m unconvinced by the utility

Dan Szymborski: a lot of park effects are *indirect* and not just park configuration

Dan Szymborski: Like in Oakland, some of those 30/30 homers would have been foul outs earlier in the PA

Dan Szymborski: and it wind/temperature/humidity effects from stadium to stadium

person: how the hell is Eugenio doing this? I assume ZiPS thinks the team option is a good deal by now?

Dan Szymborski: I asked AI to make a dramatization of what happens when I break the computer

Dan Szymborski:

person: it’s ok, some of us know how to copy into the jotcast link!

Dan Szymborski: At the start, it was only eight of you!

Insert Witty Name Here: Should the MLB consider moving to a cube baseball instead of a round ball?

Dan Szymborski: I would say no on that

Dan Szymborski: Thought it might be ENTERTAINIGN at a lower level

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I didn’t even answer the Eugenio question. Sorry I’m distractable

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would have expected to be mroe likely to pick up the option than not before the season!

Dan Szymborski: It’s basically a $13 million decision since there’s a $2 million buyout. Preseason, ZiPS had him at 2.0 WAR in 2025 with a 98 wRC+. Now it has him up to 2.6 WAR

Dan Szymborski: Given where Arizona is talent wise, with a mid-80sish win roster, it’s hard to not pick up the option

Tech support: How has Oneil Cruz’s bounce back from injury effected his projections?

Dan Szymborski: Up a bit, but mroe from increased playing time than icnreased perfromance

person: the home run in x ballparks, does it assume the same projected distance everywhere including COL/AZ?

Dan Szymborski: You *can* get the statcast version that uses environmental data

Dan Szymborski: but it seems to be a generalized model, not one specific to the situation

John: Your writing partner Ben did an article on WAR using RE24.  Do you prefer WAR done this way and do you use this logic at all in ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t prefer this way, personally

Dan Szymborski: It’s INTERESTING of course

Dan Szymborski: And it wouldn’t really make much sense in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: since the benefits of RE24 WAR are as a descriptor of what happened, not an estimate of future talent

Lowetide: Festa may or may not have a two-start next week. Should I risk it or run Woo for a one-start?

Dan Szymborski: Really depends on whether you need quantitative or qualitative category boosts

Delusional Padres Fan: It’s still early, but Jackson Merrill’s batted ball profile seems like it was designed by a computer program.  Hard line drive up the middle, other way, pulled high flyballs, and weak ground balls.  Not sure I have anything to add besides stating that.

Ist es vorbei für mich?: What’s Wrong with Corbin Burnes?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto convinced that it’s not just a plip

Dan Szymborski: blip

Insert Witty Name Here: Ok, pyramid ball then? I’ve had worse ideas.

Dan Szymborski: I think one of the issues is that ground balls become very weird

Dan Szymborski: and you’d possibly kill someone if the corners are sharp?

Chapman vs. Swanson: Which one of those deals would you rather have?

Dan Szymborski: probaby swanson still

Padreser: What are your thoughts on how the Padres are handling Ethan Salas? Seems strange to just let a top prospect struggle like this. Last year they even had him play a few games in Double-A for some reason too?

Dan Szymborski: They have expressed an interest in advancing him aggressively. I can’t say for sure, but I’ve gotten the feeling from talking with people that they actually want him catching better pitchers and that they think the offensive part will take care of itself

Dan Szymborski: But Eric would probably have a better feel for that

Scrapper: Did you know that Christopher Sanchez is 3rd in MLB in fWAR for pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: I did; he’s been up there all year!

Scrapper: Do you think the Orioles could have gotten Skubal or Crochet in a trafor Mayo or Basillo, and if so, will the Orioles regret not pulling a trigger on a deal like that at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: OR? No.

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite confident that the asks were *extreme* especially for Skubal

Dan Szymborski: And Crochet basically announcing Operation Shutdown: The Next Generation if he didn’t get an extension, he became riskier and less beneficial

Joe: What kind of deal do you think Santander gets?

Dan Szymborski: four or five years for 20-25 mill each

HopefulFan: Win or lose with the contract extension of Chapman for the Giants? Defense is obviously elite, but is it worth paying for that, a .230 avg, and 20 HRs?

Dan Szymborski: I was kind of skeptical, but ZiPS think it’s fine

person: pyramid ball sounds good to finally put Whit Merrifield out of his misery

person: t y p i n g s l o w l y  .  .  .

seth: just wanted to say i appreciated your Joey Votto article. I spent the last few weeks reading all the local and national retrospectives on his career and it 1) makes me feel old, and 2) jogged a lot of pleasant memories of good Reds baseball. Can’t wait for him and Miggy to get inducted together!

Oden: I keep trying to see why Lawrence Butler’s bubble will burst, and there’s nothing. His expected stats are better than actual. Fairly standard BB/K rates. Everything to my eyes seems in order. Maybe inflated HR/FB, but he hits the ball hard.
Is he just a really good player who was overlooked a bit by prospect rankings? Any idea what move to Sacramento may mean for him going forward?

Dan Szymborski: I think one of the issues is that he wasn’t some guy crushing the minors who was a borderline Ken Phelps All_Star

Dan Szymborski: He had like a WRC+ in the 90s (UNtranslated) in AAA and I think something like 110 in AA

Your Name: do you have any intel on why Zach Eflin was so cheap to acquire compared to the other starting pitchers moved at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I was legitimately surprised

Dan Szymborski: You can argue that the Jays got more for two months for Kikuchi than the Rays got for a year and two months of Eflin

person: who’s done more in 2024 for their future by ZiPS, Matt Shaw or Emmanuel Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski: Shaw’s five-year projections has improved more than Rodriguez’s, but ZiPS already liked the latter a lot more than the former

Scrapper: What will the Orioles’ infield and catching look like at the start of 2027?

Dan Szymborski: might depend on Basallo’s development

Dan Szymborski: but as it stands, Adley/Mayo/Westburg/Henderson/Holliday is obviously a pretty good bet

JWR: Is it heretical for you to be a football fan but if not, what is your favorite football team?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a Steelers fan

Dan Szymborski: I know, it’s odd to be an Orioles/Steelers fan

Dan Szymborski: but I was too young for the Colts and my dad’s family was from Pittsburgh and I had already adopted a team before the Browns became the Ravens

JWR: How do you think that O’Neil Cruz will adjust to CF?  Wouldn’t RF be a more logical spot given his arm?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine. It makes sense to try CF before settling for a corner

JWR: As an Orioles fan, would you be happy if the Orioles signed Santander at 4 x 25 million/year?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. The O’s have been underspending for a logn time

person: if the White Sox actually pull off a 12-10 finish to avoid 120 losses, it will be the biggest upset since…?

Dan Szymborski: Given how the White Sox have played this year, it’d be like Park County pee wee hockey beating the Red Wings

JWR: GIve us a minor leaguer or first year player whose future ZIPS has gone though the roof because of his performance in 2024.

Dan Szymborski: It was Ortiz back in July, but now David Fry is #1

Oddball Herrera: How many PAs does Holliday have to run a 58 wRC for before Elias starts kicking himself for apparently making him untouchable at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: A lot

ViviTheBlackMage: Have you ever played any of the FromSoftware games?  I’m 45 Hrs into Dark Souls and loving it despite it’s age and ruthlessness

Dan Szymborski: Only dabbled a little

Guest: When was the last time you cried and why?

Dan Szymborski: August 2019 when it became clear that I’d very suddenly have to put Galileo to sleep

Dan Szymborski: (my 20-year-old big gray gourmand cat for those who don’t remember)

Dan Szymborski: Thank goodness that was more recent since the time before was a videogame

Dan Szymborski: (I surprised myself by tearing up a bit at the bad, first ending you get in Cold Steel IV, even in the unported Japanese version)

Twinsnowins: The 8 spot the Twins gave up in the 4th to the Rays last night was the worst kind of death by a million paper cuts.  I’m afraid they’ll just limp into the playoffs with/without Buxton/Correa and then for the first round be like nah, we’re good and get swept

Dan Szymborski: Hey, they’ve done that before!

James: Does zips buy the new Hunter Brown?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has for a while

Guest: Curious what ZiPS thinks of Chapman’s 30s after his rebound season. He’s now up to 37.3 bWAR (30ish fWAR) at age 31. Dare we say…he has a shot at the HOF? Any way you could see it happening?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS liked it more than I did. Will be more in Jay’s piece

person: Buxton with a setback… about how do you think a ZiPS career rerun assuming average health would look?

Dan Szymborski: I did a time warp for him a couple years ago

Colton: Have any opinion on the Yankees odd use of Dominguez this year? How would you have handled things differently?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never had anyone look at me like the Yankees apparently look at Alex Verdugo

mmddyyyy: When they say “middle middle” what is it the middles of?

Dan Szymborski: strike zone

My name?: Why does MLB.com care so much whether I’m human?

Dan Szymborski: Humans spend money

Disco Danny Ford: Any exciting foreign imports for 2025?

Dan Szymborski: Sasaki most obviously!

person: “the time before was a videogame” Pac-Man is just full of tragedy, I know

Stephen: Is the decision to not bring up Jasson and play him over Verdugo as bad and dumb as many Yankees fan say it is?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

ViviTheBlackMage: What would Zips offer Bregman and do you think it’s reasonable considering Bregman’s best years were aided by the juiced ball and trash can shenanigans?  He seems to have settled in the 4-5 WAR range which is still impressive

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced by the evidence that it was a factor

Dan Szymborski: and it’s bad mostly because of the mens rea, not the results

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would still offer Bregman 5/130

Dan Szymborski: He’s basically been fine for three months

Eli: Is there anything Zips sees in Verdugo and Lemahieu that justifies the Cashman/Boone regime’s continued blind loyalty to random vets?

Dan Szymborski: No

Colton: Did the terrible start to the year meaningfully move Carroll’s future projections? Conversely, has the torrid second half moved them back much if they did?

Dan Szymborski: Not meaningfully, just shaded down a bit

person: if tearing up a bit = crying then I’m a veritable John Boehner

Dan Szymborski: Well, I only teared up a bit at the video game

Dan Szymborski: I cry cried about losing my buddy

mmddyyyy: How many employees does an MLB org have?

Dan Szymborski: I’d guess somewhere aroudn 500

mmddyyyy: Which time zone are you in?

Dan Szymborski: Eastern

Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore but have lived in Ohio since 2007

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never lived in a different time zone

mmddyyyy: Do we already know the end of season voters?

Dan Szymborski: I think only Jack O’Connell in the BBWAA knows *all* the voters

Dan Szymborski: I did get my assignment of NL ROY a few weeks ago

mmddyyyy: How many people are in the chat right now?

Dan Szymborski: 143

Dan Szymborski: Fewer than usual after the slow start

Dan Szymborski: at 12:05 it was at 11

Dan Szymborski: Thanks to me screwing up the post

Guest: For lack of better phrasing, what are the error bars like for rookie defensive projections? I asked a few months ago why ZiPS didn’t like Colton Cowser’s defense when he was T3 by OAA, and his defense has gradually gotten more and more average since then. Same thing with Masyn Winn, but the other way!

Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly, they’re very similar to the error bar for all defensive projections, which surprised me. Very large

person: if, back on july 1, ZiPS only knew the future W/L record til now of one of either BAL or NYY, what would it have predicted the division odds of the other team to be?

Dan Szymborski: I can definitely not do this on the fly!

Guest: Why doesn’t wOBA treat IBB’s just like regular walks? Is it because they’re considered context dependent? It seems like for most hitter’s it would be a small enough number to not really matter and for someone like 2004 Bonds it feels weird to exclude them from his offensive profile.

Dan Szymborski: Well, someone had to decide one way or the other

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced, though IBBs are messy because of their context dependence

Red Sox, but from blood: Kutter and Houck have both been rough last few months. Do you believe either will turn it around and finish strong?

Dan Szymborski: I’m more bullish on Houck

angels 202?: should i even care about the angels at all?

Dan Szymborski: No

person: don’t robots also gamble on sports though?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but there’s advertising and robots don’t get moderate-to-severe conditions that you have to ask your doctor about

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m still wondering why I’m supposed to be asking my doctor if a drug is right for me. I would assume that the doctor had already considered it

Dan Szymborski: Like you wouldn’t go to the fire department and ask them if they though about using fire hoses

Dan Szymborski: “Ask your French restaurant if butter is right for you.”

J: Has ZiPS’ outlook of PCA changed from this season?

Dan Szymborski: It had faded a little earlier, but it’s back to where it should be

Dan Szymborski: well, back to where it was

Dan Szymborski: the philosophical statement of what PCA projection is morally superior is a theological question I cannot answer

Phil: With Roman Anthony moving up the prospect lists and Campbell not far behind, what should the Sox do with all their outfielders? O’Neill will presumably move on, but do they trade another guy?

Dan Szymborski: I think you just see hwo things shake out

Dan Szymborski: some will disappoint, someone will get injured, so on

Oddball Herrera: Hey let’s be fair now…after last season the Twins have raised the expectation from “just happy to be here” to “just happy not to get swept”.  The sky is the limit! (I say this as a lifelong Twins fan, not being mean spirited)

mmddyyyy: Do you prefer to shell your own peanuts?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: family reasosn

Sen. Blutarsky: Byron Buxton is the Glass Joe of MLB.

Dan Szymborski: But Glass Joe’s special move doesn’t hit hard

Dan Szymborski: I think Buxton is more Don Flamenco

Dan Szymborski: or maybe Bald Bull

Oden: could eating skyline chili with beans —and making you call it chili—make you cry? What if you had to make a video of it professing your love, and also enjoying a Hotdog “sandwich” at the same time?

Dan Szymborski: Eating things I don’t like doesn’t make me CRY

Guest: do the fan graphs projected standings take into account overall team performance, or do they favor recent success. for example, the padres were a .500 team until after the break

Dan Szymborski: They’re based on the standings too date and the rest of season projections

person: I’ve always been hung up on that “moderate to severe” language in drug ads too lol, it’s the “I’m a normal person” conceit that is so strongly shattered by the need to use that obvious legalese

Dan Szymborski: I love answering moderate-to-severe or mild-to-moderate when someone asks me how something is doing

Padre Sr: The Angels play the White Sox 6 times in the final 2 weeks. They will literally help decide history.

Austin D.: Have you considered doing (or maybe have done already) a ZiPS time warp for the rest of Dave Kingman’s career had he not been (likely) blackballed from the league? 35 home runs at 37 years old is insane for a last season, even if he was a below-average hitter overall that year. Thank you for your time!

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he was pretty bad

Dan Szymborski: and a jumping off point at 37 isn’t going to be all that interesting, I don’t think

person: do you prefer to shell your own pistachios? I do only because it’s the only thing keeping me from eating 2500 calories worth every sitting

re: peanuts: salted peanuts: just eat the shell too!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really eat a ton of nuts

Dan Szymborski: peanuts are more likely to end up in stir fry

person: Skyline sponsors some element of the Reds broadcast, but I already forget which one I was so triggered

Dan Szymborski: Skyline’s big in Cincy obviously!

mmddyyyy: would expansion mean a longer schedule?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Guardcore Clevelander: There are enough nuts at fangraphs that you don’t need more, Dan, you’re good xD

Dan Szymborski: of course, peanuts are legumes!

ViviTheBlackMage: Are you still doing your every other day fasting routine? I’ve gotten good results from a 16:8 intermittent strategy but am considering trying other fasting options out of curiosity

Dan Szymborski: Yup, down 51 pounds since the end of the World Series

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, since I have a Lindor piece to finish up, I’m going to have to bid you all farewell for this week!

person: I’m enjoying this chat btw, very similar vibes to the classic FG chat era (not that current ones are bad, they’re just a little less… vivacious imo)

Dan Szymborski: Aren’t my chats usually the same?

person: I think it was the less busy-ness due to the embed

person: but anyway, maybe it’s nothing substantive. g’day!

Dan Szymborski: ah

Dan Szymborski: I like to think my chats are usually vivacious!

Dan Szymborski: But then again, we all like to think good things about ourselves