After week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, it’s time to turn our attention back to MLB for a minute and enjoy this 11 game Tuesday slate. As I was putting together the data tables which help me look for SPs and offenses to stack I was struck by the number of good to great pitchers on this slate. Out of the 22 pitchers, only 6 seem somewhat attackable because the rest all are sporting SIERAs under 4.25. For context, less than 50 SPs have a season long SIERA under that mark and we have a healthy portion of those on this slate. With cooling temperatures across the US and September call ups getting a chance, pitching may rule the day on this slate.
Still, we have 6 offenses that are in good spots tonight: BOS, KC, STL, CLE, MIL, MIN.
BOS is facing Albert Suarez who has outpitched his peripherals all season by limiting HRs and pitching in front of a good bullpen that has helped him strand 78% of runners on base. BOS has not played as well in the last 30 days, only accumulating a wRC+ of 91 with high K rates and low BB rates throughout the lineup.
KC has been pretty consistent this season thanks to Witt/Perez having great years. They face Stroman who tries to keep the ball on the ground (48% GB) with his sinker but has been pretty hittable nonetheless. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him limit the Royals here. As Witt goes, so goes his team.
Rhett Lowder has a sparkling 0.87 ERA after 2 starts, but his .222 babip and 0 HRs hide his 5.6 SIERA. STL will be the third team to try to crack this rookie SP who is walking 18% of batters he faces. He never struggled with control in the minors so it’s also possible we face a quick correction to the walks and that Lowder ends up being a pretty competent major league pitcher.
BOS, KC, and STL are going to draw attention for stacks, but there are paths to these teams not being good options. However, our final three really do have solid matchups tonight.
CLE is facing the White Sox. That says it all right? Cannon struggles to strike batters out which will only be exacerbated against the low K Guardians. Cannon usually gets pretty deep in games (5 or 6 IP) but he allows runs and CLE is cheap enough to stack up.
MIL is facing Birdsong who has a 15% BB rate and never pitches past 5 innings. This should be a great spot for MIL to accumulate DFS points and I imagine they will be a popular pick.
Finally, MIN is facing Griffin Canning and the spiraling LAA team. MIN has not been as good of a hitting team lately, largely because of higher K rates and lower BB rates. They have lost a few good bats to injury (Buxton, Correa weigh heavily) but they still hit the ball hard and have a lineup that can punish a pitcher who is struggling.
Spencer Arrighetti has been known to have blow up starts so you could target A’s bats in that matchup and hope for another, but he has good K stuff and also has plenty of really good starts. I would stick with these offenses mentioned for stacking and mix and match with your favorite one offs.
Real quick on pitching….at this point in the season with expanded lineups it really does help to look through lineups after they post. Sometimes you can target a team that is rostering a lot of unknowns or a lot of guys with high K rates. SF, for example, has been rostering guys with sky high K rates recently. If you see Luciano, McCray, Bailey, Fitzgerald in the lineup, Aaron Civale is in line for a good start. Also, I don’t write much about pitching because in DFS slates like this it just makes sense to play the best pitchers at the cheapest prices. You can use projections systems or simply roster the two guys I am planning on rostering below. If you want more SP options, check out My Twitter later today for a full table of starters and relevant data.
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Pablo Lopez, SP: $9,100 – Primacy Bias would have us believe that Lopez was not a good play, but recency bias would view him as the opposite. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Lopez has increased his velo (as is common for SPs throughout the year) over his last 4 starts and his stuff should play well against this LAA team.
Aaron Civale, SP: $6,300 – The price is right against this high K team. SF has called up some guys from the minors who can strike out a lot. MIL has been tampering with Civale’s pitch mix and I trust that organization to keep him pitching well through to the playoffs.
William Contreras, C: $4,900 – This has been the best catching option all year and I like the matchup. Simple. Also, you can find value up and down this slate. Not all of its good, but it can allow you to pay up for C.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B: $2,700 – Figuring out if he will play on any given day is harder than deciding whether to roster him if he’s in the lineup. Manzardo hits the ball hard for a bottom barrel price. It looks like he could draw the DH spot tonight.
Edouard Julien, 2B: $2,900 – He has a classic all or nothing approach with a high K rate, but the power is real. He used to be more patient and it seems they are encouraging him to swing the ball a bit more (look at his swing% this time around) which is a positive change. I’m in for this matchup.
Alex Bregman, 3B: $4,900 – The matchup isn’t anything special, but I like rostering Bregman when he is “on”. He definitely went through a rough patch to start the year, but he’s rolling and we like Bregman rolling at home against pitchers that struggle with command.
Willy Adames, SS: $4,700 – Don’t call it a hot streak. Adames is just really good. He strikes out a fair bit, but if MIL is rolling, he’s gonna get involved. I like MIL tonight.
Jackson Chourio, OF: $4,400 – Have you heard? If you have you don’t need me to say anything. If you haven’t, well, Chouri might be a second round pick in fantasy leagues next year and he’s still sub 5k.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No rain to worry about, just coolish temps, especially in the city by the bay (SF)
Doing Lines In Vegas
Really interesting Vegas totals today. I like the MIL bats quite a bit more than the SF bats, yet the team totals are surprisingly close for that game, 4 for MIL and 3.6 for SF. I would lean into the MIL side. KC does not have a high enough total in my opinion even though Stroman has been pitching better as of late. KC is powered by a few strong offensive pieces, but I still think a stack could work there.
