Ten, What a number!? It symbolizes completeness and finality. Count to ten. Groups of 10. 5 v 5 = 10. Well, there are 10 games on the main slate tonight and that’s a great number for a slate. For today’s article, I want to walk you through my process which starts with a table of relevant stats.
| SP | K/BB (Proj.) ROS ERA | OPP | K/BB, wRC+ vs LH/RH SP | L30, Notes | High (Avg) DK Score |
| Blake Snell | 33/11 (28/10) 3.71 | V MIA 22/6 – 78 | 23/7 – 104 | 54 (19) |
| George Kirby | 23/3 (22/4) 3.52 | At LAA 23/8 – 87 | 26/8 – 78 | 42 (17) |
| Framber Valdez | 24/7 (23/7) 3.48 | V KC 17/6 – 99 | 18/6 – 120, 59% GB | 37 (19) |
| Seth Lugo | 20/6 (18/6) 4.58 | At HOU 19/7 – 111 | 21/7 – 111 | |
| Kevin Gausman | 22/6 (23/6) 4.31 | At MIN 21/8 – 113 | 21/7 – 117 | 45 (16) |
| Pablo Lopez | 26/5 (27/5) 3.65 | V TOR 20/8 – 103 | 21/8 – 112 | 48 (17) |
| Clayton Kershaw | 19/6 (21/6) 3.98 | At ARI 20/7 – 112 | 19/10 – 133 | |
| Zac Gallen | 22/8 (22/6) 4.14 | V LAD 22/9 – 112 | 21/7 – 106 | |
| Ben Lively | 19/7 (18/7) 4.81 | V PIT 24/8 – 84 | 26/6 – 95 | 25 (14) |
| LAA rookies | V SEA 28/9 – 99 | 28/10 – 94 | ||
| JP Sears | 18/6 (19/7) 4.72 | At TEX 22/8 – 98 | 22/6 – 82 | |
| Erick Fedde | 20/7 (20/7) 4.46 | At NYY 20/10 – 124 | 20/11 – 122 | |
| Tylor Megill | 26/10 (23/9) 4.30 | At CWS 24/6 – 74 | 23/6 – 71 | 31 (12) |
| Adam Oller MIA | 17/13 (17/9) 5.39 | At SF 22/8 – 93 | 26/6 – 87 | |
| Jon Gray | 19/6 (23/8) 4.35 | V OAK 25/8 – 100 | 21/9 – 100 | 26 (10) |
| Austin Gomber | 16/6 (15/6) 5.84 | V BAL 23/7 – 116 | 23/8 – 101 | |
| Albert Suarez | 18/8 (20/8) 4.97 | At COL 25/7 – 86 | 27/7 – 87 | 25 (NA) |
| Bailey Falter | 17/7 (17/6) 4.70 | At CLE 20/8 – 108 | 19/8 – 90 | 30 (11) |
| Jon Cannon | 16/7 (15/7) 5.17 | V NYM 22/8 – 108 | 25/7 – 105 |
I use this data to note teams that look good for stacking and pitchers that look good for rostering. For pitchers that I am interested in rostering I always look at their high score on DK and their average score. Often these high scores come in really good matchups. It gives me a sense of what kind of floor and ceiling I can expect based on the matchup at hand. Blake Snell is in a really good matchup vs. a young MIA team coming off a series in Coors. He is pitching at home and has a legit chance to hit for another ceiling score. I want to roster Snell if possible.
Someone like Tylor Megill has put up 31 points before, but his average shows the inconsistency that could appear in any matchup. The only other options in that lower price range for me are Ben Lively, Albert Suarez, and Jon Gray whose ceilings are not as high as Megill. Bailey Falter is another option that comes with a lot of risk, but also a decent ceiling.
The bolded offenses are those I want to stack: NYM, BAL, NYY, SEA, ARI, MIN, HOU. I will mostly draw from within that grouping of players. Each team has a case for being a top stack tonight, but with pricing considered along with the stackability (I know it’s not a helpful word – can I reliably roster 5 players from the NYY? No, so they go down on my list. ARI on the other hand has goodness spread throughout their lineup and make for a nice stack except for their rising prices, etc. etc.) I am able to narrow my focus.
- NYM players have a great matchup vs. CWS. Their increasing K rate should be mitigated by Cannon and company (23/11 K/BB for bullpen last 30) allowing the power to shine.
- BAL is in Coors field facing a bad pitching team. BAL is probably too expensive for my liking, but it’s also possible a lot of people think that way and leave them alone.
- SEA is supposed to face a rookie pitcher. If they can avoid the K, they do have some guys who can barrel it up and others who can cause havoc on the basepaths.
- ARI is a solid team top to bottom against lefties and righties. I am wary of their team continuing to dominate without 3 regular starters.
- MIN can run hot or cold and Gausman is similar. They do have the potential to chase Gausman early and get into that TOR bullpen that allows lots of HRs.
- HOU faces Seth Lugo who has over performed his skills. HOUs best players are likewise expensive, but they have some cheaper guys than can help balance that out.
I will select a few favorite players at each position below.
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Blake Snell, SP: $10,200 – This is a great spot for a ceiling score and Snell ceilings are slate winners.
Tylor Megill, SP: $7,400 – I am wary of his inconsistency, but in DFS you have to attack spots like this. If not rostering Megill I would spend way up or further down to Bailey Falter.
Cal Raleigh, C: $4,400 – HR leader amongst Cs is in a great spot for a big night.
Luke Raley, 1B: $4,100 – He hits the ball hard and strikes out, but if SEA can jump on the rookie, he will be a bat to include in stacks.
Find someone cheap in your stack, 2B
Alex Bregman, 3B: $5,300 – There are a few positions that I am more likely to spend up on because of the quality of good players there. It is likely one of those high priced guys will put up a strong DFS score. I like Bregman for his low K rate and high frequency of good contact. The matchup is fine vs. Lugo.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS: $3,200 – The best of the rest is clearly Perdomo tonight. His hard hit rates are above average and he will lead off tonight vs. Kershaw. Perdomo excels at getting on base and his team has shown a great ability to drive him in. I expect a good score out of him tonight and would not mind stacking D-Backs.
Mets, OF: $3,000 – 4,400 – The Mets are highly stackable tonight in part because of their OF. I could see using all three OF spots on this part of the NYM tonight.
Matt Wallner, OF: $3,600 – This play comes with the risk of getting a 0 due to Matt’s 30% K rate. It also has great potential for a HR or more. There are lots of really nice OF plays around this price point. I will not pay up for OF tonight.
