We are back for another week of trying to piece a winning Wednesday lineup together. Today, we are putting most of our eggs into the anti-Patrick Corbin basket. I have no idea why the Nationals continue to trot Corbin out there, but with his 5.49 ERA facing a scorching hot Mets lineup, we’re here to make some money. Tonight’s 10-game slate starts at 7:05pm EST, let’ see what else we have in store for you.
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Framber Valdez SP $8,300 – In order to get some Mets in the lineup vs. Corbin, we need to make some concessions on the starting pitchers. However, it certainly doesn’t feel like Framber Valdez against the Marlins for $8,300 is a concession. While he hasn’t been his usual self this season, he’s shown flashes of brilliance on the mound. Let’s not forget that the Marlins are one of the worst offenses in the league. We’d consider a poor performance from Valdez in this one to be around his average of 14.7, but fully expect him to surpass that.
Frankie Montas, SP: $7,000 – Here is the pick that feels more like a concession. Montas has been fine for the Reds this year, and for $7,000, we’ll take fine. He’s averaged 14.5 fppg in his last 4 starts. The Rockies have been oddly decent at the plate, especially Brenton Doyle. There aren’t too many bats in that lineup that can hurt Montas, so hopefully he keeps guys like Doyle at bay.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $5,200 –Polar Bear Pete is our first Met in the lineup. He has not homered in 7 games and to that we say, he’s due. Since he hit his last homer, he has 5 games with 0 points. We have to be confident this will not happen tonight. Corbin is susceptible to giving up homers, and who better to have than the Mets leading power threat?
Zack Gelof, 2B: $3,300 – After a slow start to the season, Gelof is starting to turn it around from a production standpoint. He has 7 points or more in 7 of his last 8 games, with a 28-point performance last night. For this price, anything above 5 points is worthwhile, and we have the benefit of a base stealer with some power. Gelof is a sneaky value play tonight.
Mark Vientos, 3B: $4,400 –Vientos had quite the hot stretch at the end of June into the beginning of July. He has seemed to cool down some, but we’ve seen him turn it on and have some big games for the Mets. After hitting 5 home runs in 9 games, he hasn’t had one in his last 5. We may need a longball from Vientos tonight, so it’s a good thing we’re facing Corbin.
Ceddanne Rafaela SS: $4,000 – This kid has simply been on fire. He has 1 game under 12 points in his last 6 (he out up 0), and is putting up points in plenty of different ways. He hasn’t racked up many steals recently, but he’s a threat to grab a base. His power has been solid, as he has 11 homers on the year. He’s also driving in a good bit of runs. He has 51 RBI on the season, way more than I thought when I started writing this. Rafaela has been taking advantage of opportunities to produce in the lineup, and we should take advantage too.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $5,600 – Last week, Yordan had 3 straight games with a home run, so we know he can get hot and stay hot at any time. He only has 1 hit in his last 3 games, but he doesn’t stay cold for long. The Marlins are going with an opener in Bryan Hoeing, and then will probably play matchups. The good news for us is matchups don’t really hurt Yordan. Start him with confidence, even if his price is a little high.
Harrison Bader, OF: $4,000 – Our last Met is Harrison Bader. This is just another Met for a decent price, who has the ability to give us a 20-point game. Even without the longball, he can steal a base or 2, and have an impact without the power.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
I actually made a full lineup for this one but didn’t do a write-up on all. You can add Francisco Alvarez at Catcher, and Wyatt Langford in the other OF spot. No inclement weather to report today. Good news, there are some strong 17+ mph winds blowing out to left-center field for the Mets game today. This makes me even more confident in this stack. Also, some 10 mph winds blowing out in Cincy which is a tad concerning. Feel free to swap out Montas if you need.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The over for Mets/Nationals is 9.5, which is the highest total of the evening. Here’s hoping its 10-0 Mets. Framber and the Astros are huge favorites at -225 against the Marlins, which makes sense. The lowest total of the day is 7 in the Giants/Blue Jays game with Logan Webb facing Chris Bassitt.
