Happy return to baseball and happy second half! It’s possible you are returning to DFS after a short break or you are returning and looking for a second chance to your season. Whatever the case, time off from MLB DFS gives us a lot of time to clear our minds and think about things anew. Try to look past the biases you have after one half of a season and start thinking logically and reasonably, following the data and projection systems that we have at our fingertips.
Friday’s slate contains 11 games and plenty of top-tier pitchers. In fact, 10 of the 22 SPs have Rest of Season (ROS) ERAs below 4 according to TheBat projection system. This is the marker of a top 40 pitcher, generally someone you don’t want to stack bats against. This leaves us with 12 teams that I would consider as stackable. Let’s sift through those 12 to find the best and if we can drop any more from consideration. I won’t be stacking CWS or MIA, the two lowest performing offenses by wRC+ this season. I don’t want LAA in OCo either, leaving us with 9 teams I will be considering as stackable: LAD, CLE, DET, BOS, BAL, KC, NYM, SF, and OAK. **(With all the SPs changing between Thur/Fri, we went from 10 SPs under 4.00 to 7. I have to add COL and STL to my list however I don’t generally stack COL and STL is not a great offense for stacking imo either. The change from Paxton to Stone makes BOS a bit more enticing from a power perspective.)**
NYM has the best matchup vs. Edward Cabrera who consistently struggles with command and who has been hit very hard as a result. Even with the game being played in Miami, there is upside to be had by rostering the team with the best wRC+ over the past 30 days. BAL, NYY, and LAD lead the league in HRs. BAL’s HRs are spread out throughout their roster making them more of an option in my opinion while LAD is still missing many of their power hitters so it seems better to play them as a 3 man stack rather than a 5 man.
The other teams (CLE, DET, BOS, KC, SF, and OAK) outside of SF in Coors will be relatively unowned and make for interesting stacks as well. With pricing considered, OAK and DET stand out as interesting 4 or 5 man stacks. Neither seems particularly comfortable to roster, but OAK has the 5th best wRC+ over the past 30 games and DET is facing the team that has allowed the most HRs. There is so much more data to pour over as I sit here and write this on Thursday afternoon because we expect the birth of our baby on Friday. Check out My Twitter in case I have time to post a table of all SPs and relevant data for this slate that can help you make good decisions. Think differently and build fearlessly. Check the picks below for some ideas of one-off plays. You can also use them to build stacks if they fit the stackable teams I mentioned above.
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Corbin Burnes, SP: $9,100 – The price on Burnes is not all that high for a pitcher with his skills. His K rate is only 23% this season, but he has really limited walks and his swK rate of 13% gives him upside for more. He has already had a game over 35 DK points, and it’s Thursday night and I know he is pitching whereas other top SPs have already been switched around.
JP Sears, SP: $6,300 – The main data point in favor of JP Sears is his 46% Fly Ball rate. He will be pitching in the right park for that kind of batted ball contact. LAA does not have a lot of power hitters and their hardest hitters have warts like a high FB % and high K%. Sears already has a game of 27 points this year and I think he could come close to that at a very cheap price.
Francisco Alvarez, C: $4,400 – Plenty of the Mets will challenge Edward Cabrera to throw strikes including Alvarez. Hitting in the middle of the order, he should have plenty of opportunities to hit the ball hard and in the air. I would play him as part of a stack or as a one off.
Shohei Ohtani, 1B: $6,500 – There isn’t a lot that I love at the 1B position so I am willing to spend up on the best player in MLB. The matchup is fine
Brandon Lowe, 2B: $4,500 – Lowe came off the IL and started hitting. At a position without much power, his 18% barrel rate over the last 30 games really stands out. Lowe has seen Cole plenty of times, so the matchup shouldn’t deter him. The good hitters park makes me willing to pay the price.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $5,000 – Chapman continues to hit the ball hard and in the air and Coors field is a much better place for his type of power than his home ballpark. The price isn’t even that expensive and he works as a one off play in Coors if you don’t want to stack Giants.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $5,300 – Power and speed are the two categories worth the most points in DFS contests and Lindor should be able to contribute both on Friday night. SS is a talented position and its a good idea to roster a ceiling type player here.
Alec Burleson, OF: $4,100 – Burleson ended the first half scorching hot, but its been more than a streak. Playing in Atlanta should continue to help his power and his plate patience is bordering on great. You could put him at 1B if you don’t have the salary for Ohtani.
Jhonkensy Noel, OF: $3,200 – I am trying to stick to the lower cost option in the OF since my position players are all mostly expensive, but Noel is only priced down here because of his high K rate which I am not super concerned about while looking for upside. His upside comes from the 23% barrel rate and 93 EV that has led to 4 HRs in 39 PAs already.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Editor’s Note: Teenie bit of rain possible in COL, otherwise, things look great out there! Send the Prof and his wife some love today!
