Hello Tuesday! Tonight we have a 13 game slate on Draftkings, which immediately should trigger us to approach the slate thinking less about ownership and more about ceiling plays. Why? Ownership will almost certainly be spread out organically, but that means more opportunities for big scores to inflate our DFS scores. There will likely be a couple 30 point scorers (or more) tonight who you may need in order to take down a tournament. Find ways through stacks or one offs to expose yourself to these types of scores. I will be approaching my writeup with those ideas in mind.
I have 9 teams on my list for possible stacks. I identify these teams by looking at the K/BB and wRC+ data over the course of the season vs. LH/RH pitching as well as the K/BB and ROS projected ERA of the opposing pitcher. I also am strongly weighing the last 30 days K/BB and wRC+ numbers since so many teams have changed personnel via trades or call ups recently. At this point in my process I have not started weighing the cost to roster these stacks, so let me talk you through that part of the process.
NYY is facing Matt Boyd at home. Boyd was great in his first start, but he has always struggled with control and HRs. The Yankees will surely press him on these two issues. The one problem with the Yankees is that all of their attractiveness as a stack is tied up in two players, Soto and Judge. I would consider that duo as a fine stack on rosters that have cheaper pitching options or a very cheap 5 man stack. I also like those two as one offs considering either player can put up a “had to have it” score.
BOS has been one of the hottest teams over the past 30 days and they will face Ronel Blanco whose 2.0 era is eventually going to regress upwards with his .199 babip allowed. There are a lot of ways to stack this BOS team and still make salary work. If they do have a big game you can still succeed while leaving one of Devers or Duran off the stack if rostering both is too expensive.
We are always looking for HRs when we stack players and Nick Pivetta (plus the BOS bullpen) is someone who has an elevated HR rate despite striking out a ton of batters. Many of the HOU players avoid Ks well and have been barreling the ball up well. A 3-5 man stack of HOU shouldn’t cost you too much considering some of the batters lower in the lineup come at a large discount.
The BAL vs. NYM game is stackable on both sides. Dean Kremer has only a 8% swK rate in his arsenal and BAL should challenge Jose Quintana. Neither team is cost prohibitive considering the cheaper players lower in the lineup. I often like to include a C in my 5 man stacks, but that is never an option for me when stacking BAL. Rutschman is way overpriced for DFS. Finally, TOR gets to face Carson Spiers and can be stacked for a very cheap cost outside of Vlad Guerrero. As always, check my Twitter later in the day for a full list of SPs and the teams they are facing with the important stats I mentioned above.
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on Underdog and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Robbie Ray, SP: $8,600 – When you have a team as bad as the White Sox it really makes DFS a lot simpler. I haven’t done the math on opposing SP scores against the CWS for the past month, but it has been a pretty successful cheat code, especially on larger slates.
Davis Martin, SP: $6,500 – I think most people can pinpoint the high cost SPs and they will likely be good picks today. I want to point out Mr. Martin. He has added a changeup that he has been using in his last two outings almost 25% of the time. His results with it have been great. Martin is opposite Ray today and I like the move of using Martin over Ray to save 2k and hope that Ray struggles with control.
Victor Caratini, C: $2,900 – HOU has been doing some creative things to get Caratini in the lineup because he has been crushing the ball lately. He still has great plate patience and can work an at bat against high velocity pitchers like Pivetta. I hope they play him tonight.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $5,000 – While his K rate has risen along with his hard hit data, Alonso is well worth the cost tonight as he faces a SP with an 8% swK rate. Alonso should be ready with his 15% barrel rate and 95 EV over the last 30 days.
Jackson Holliday, 2B: $3,700 – If you regularly read my columns you might know that Holliday would be my pick at 2B. I love the hard hit data during this second stint in the majors and the lefty-lefty matchup is not going to scare me off a good hitter like Holliday.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $5,000 – I still think Chapman deserves better production based on his underlying hitting metrics. He is consistently crushing the ball and he has added 12 SBs this year. Chapman fits well as a one off or as a stack. If Martin fails as a starter tonight, CWS has one of the worst bullpens as well.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $6,300 – I love to roster Elly on large slates when he is lower owned. He can win you slate by himself. In the month of August he has put up scores of 42, 29, 20 and 19. All of his underlying hard hit data is good. You just hope he can make contact vs. Berrios.
Outfield – There are plenty of OF options today, but only the truly elite (Soto, Judge, Alvarez) really stand out to me. On slates like this I like to roster multiple OFers from my stacks. Take some swings on the guys batting 6-9 to save salary. If the stack pays off, these plays should as well.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing in this section tonight besides some cooler weather in Chicago with winds gently blowing in. I’m not interested in the SPs or offenses there.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Woah! First time I looked at Vegas today and the O/Us are low, low, low. No team is implied for more than 5 runs. I still think we will have some spots that blow up and lead to higher scores, but these Vegas totals at least give some consideration to lower total scores for tonight.
