There are plenty of MLB DFS truthers out there however NFL preseason starts on Thursday and plenty of sharp players are turning their attention to NFL prep. The MLB DFS life is a daily grind, easier to manage if you have a process, but the decision making can still wear on a person and bias will begin to creep into those decisions. This will happen because biased decisions are easier on the mind. Our biases allow us to feel good about decisions and make them quickly. I will also soon be splitting my time between MLB and NFL, but I haven’t yet.
Tonight’s Tuesday slate includes 11 games and we have a ton of high powered offenses to choose between. We do not have a lot of pitching options to choose from, meaning the good DFS players who often find their way to the top of tournaments will have a condensed group of pitchers to choose from making the hitting choices even more important. You can read my pitching picks below, but it basically boils down to Gil, Castillo, or Pablo Lopez. Personally I may expand beyond that, especially if I am stacking a team with a decent SP attached to them.
Making an easy decision on an offense is as simple as Vegas totals and recency bias. The Vegas total takes into account the park factors and weather. The game in Coors will be an easy stack for some, but I am wary of the success Kyle Freeland has had recently. Since returning in June from an elbow strain he has a 22/4 K to BB rate and a Siera in the 3s. He can limit the power focused Mets. KC was a popular pick in DFS yesterday and should be again today. Bobby Witt is incredible, but they are otherwise such a low power team that I’m not sure they can capitalize on a pitcher like Bello who has an above average HR/FB rate.
I am more interested in the Yankees at home. Davis Daniel has two good games that came against DET and COL, but two bad games vs. TEX and OAK. NYY are in a good spot here. BAL has one of the best setups. Chris Bassitt has had a babip over .324 in every month except May (he faced the White Sox twice in May) and the TOR bullpen has given up the most HRs in MLB. I’m excited to finally profit from some Jackson Holiday! SEA may get bypassed by some because of their high K rate, but the K/BB has improved considerably after their trades. SEA still has a top 5 barrel rate and faces Keider Montero. Finally, take a look at OAK or BOS. BOS has been one of the hottest teams as they have hit their stride and got healthy at the same time. OAK is a HR hitting machine waiting to put up a big number for your DFS score. The White Sox pitching staff is the perfect punching bag.
Once again, you don’t have to roster all of the “best” plays. Often in DFS and MLB DFS specifically a player batting 7th in the order has a great game and makes your stack a tourney winner. Feel free to build lots of rosters before settling on a team that a) you like b) has good data to back them up c) is priced in a way that you can still afford SPs and ancillary pieces. Good luck and enjoy!
As always, I will be posting a table on My Twitter later today with all the SPs, Offenses and relevant data. Check it out!
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Shota Imanaga, SP: $9,500 – The wind is going to be whipping in Chicago today and when it’s blowing in at Wrigley, most anyone is a good start. Add to this narrative the fact that MIN leads the league in fly ball rate and Imanaga regularly induces 50% or greater fly balls. He also doesn’t walk people.
Luis Castillo, SP: $8,200 – Detroit has definitely gotten worse since the trade deadline. Seattle is a tough place to hit and Castillo gets to face a weakened Tigers team. There is a lot of upside with this pick.
Cal Raleigh, C: $4,700 – I’m amazed by the number of Cs with great K/BB rates, but Raleigh is one of the best in the last 30 days. His barrel rates are also at the top of the charts and I like the matchup.
Dominic Smith, 1B: $3,200 – Most of the 1B choices have high K rates and good barrel rates, but they all are so expensive. Smith is not a world beater, but as a one-off or in a Boston stack, he is priced well.
Jackson Holliday, 2B: $3,100 – Most prospects struggle initially in the major leagues, but the good ones make the adjustments and come roaring back. Holiday has exploded with a 23% barrel rate, several hits over 100 EV, and a better command of the strike zone than before. There’s also Zack Gelof…
Josh Rojas, 3B: $3,100 – I am hoping Rojas hits higher up in the lineup, making him a good play at a weak position tonight. His hard hit data is pretty legit against RHPs and I like SEAs setup tonight. Let’s hope he doesn’t get pinch hit for when a lefty comes in.
Gunnar Henderson, SS: $6,200 – The SS market is really dry below the top options and I am liking the Orioles tonight. Gunnar had a stretch where he just wasn’t doing much, but that has seemingly worked itself out. His hard hit data were never in question, but I could see a little hot streak coming in August.
Lawrence Butler, OF: $4,100 – Butler almost got the night off last night, and then he pinch hit and connected on another homer. This guy is just off the charts with his power and his speed will play as well.
Anthony Santander/Colton Cowser, OF: $5,500/$4,300 – Depending on your available salary, either of these Orioles makes for a good play tonight. Both have similar power profiles and Santander strikes out a bit less. I might even try to fit both into a stack tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
I was hoping to roster some Yankees today, but it looks like the weather is going to make that a risky (at best) proposition. Watch out. On the other hand, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley as if we needed any more bunching around popular pitchers for tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Twins at Cubs expected total really reflects the strong winds blowing in as each team is implied for only 3 runs. The Coors field game will draw a lot of interest with its high total and I can’t blame you if you want to roster these teams. It has some really desirable hitting weather as well in Denver. Otherwise, I’m impressed by the Athletics total and agree that they should be in our sites as possible slate beaters today.
