I don’t know where you’re at with the NFL season, but a lot of your competitors today have split focus with the NFL rapidly approaching. I am almost guaranteed to lose when I split my focus in MLB. There are so many nuances to MLB DFS and so many situations that are fluid or evolving at this point in the season, that you really have to have a good understanding of the slate and stick to your process in order to win.
That being said, this slate brings us some very clear options at pitcher and in terms of stackable offenses. The game totals are all muted as a result of cooler weather and the line between winning and losing is growing finer. What I mean by that is, there should be less stacks that produce really big scores and you can likely win with a stack that does really well vs. extraordinary. Sometimes these “really well” stacks get the job done via the SB or a couple HRs or it’s their cheap pricing that really wins the day. We will look at a couple.
First, at the top of the pitching ranks are two standout performers in Chris Sale and Paul Skenes (limited to 83 pitches last time out) pitching in really good matchups. You could simply roster both of them and try to win via your offense, but Skenes is a bit fragile and Sale hasn’t posted too many ceiling scores, so you might be able to win without them. That is a major decision point for today. Your ability to roster the two of them depends on your comfort with your stack. Hint: there are always low cost options to roster as one offs with call ups.
Let’s look at the Braves as an example. They do play Kyle Freeland who has a Siera of 4.5 (Siera and other ERA estimators do the best job of predicting ERA in season) but has had a 20/5 K/BB ratio since returning from injury. The Braves do hit the ball hard despite their high K rate. COL has one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB so this is obviously a spot that could lead to a GPP winning score. There are also some low cost options in that stack which could allow you to still pay up for a SP.
ARI is another team that is stackable vs. the lefty Harrison. ARI will nickel and dime an opposing pitcher to death when they are successful. This will work in a lower scoring environment because the stack doesn’t cost too much. One issue with ARI vs. a lefty is the platoons. If Harrison does not last a long time, you will lose at bats, but if he does last a long time, he is likely pretty effective. Still, it could work.
MIL is another affordable team. Stacking MIL could be the right move tonight (it’s been the right move plenty in the last few weeks) as they face Steven Matz coming back from multiple back injuries.
NYY are very difficult to stack if you want to include Judge/Soto (and you should want to) so rostering this team would require you to pay down at SP. LAD are a similar sort of team.
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Chris Sale, SP: $10,800 – Everyone will be considering Chris Sale today. His K/BB numbers are stellar and he gets to face COL away from Coors, one of the easiest matchups in MLB that enhances Ks. Fade at a very high risk.
Ryne Nelson, SP: $7,200 – Since he started pumping his fastball 60+% of the time, he has produced a 25% K rate, 4% BB rate, and a 3.06 FIP. SF has been the subject of some big K outings recently and Nelson has a good shot for a solid start at a good price.
Will Smith, C: $4,700 – This is a little more than I’m hoping to pay at my C position, but I know I will get something with Smith in my lineup. He has a 135 wRC+ vs LHPs this year and really controls the K zone well. He’s also a fine play as a one off.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B: $2,500 – Brady Singer has allowed a .374 wOBA to lefties this year. Manzardo has the power to take advantage and the price is just right as I want to spend up at a lot of spots today.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $4,000 – He hits lefties pretty well and should be hitting lead off again. He has a 121 wRC+ vs LHPs this year with good BB rates and some pretty powerful bats behind him to drive him in. He has also been hitting better as of late.
Romy Gonzalez, 3B: $3,100 – You can also play him at 2nd. The lefty hitting specialist has put up some big numbers this year. If he can hit up in the order, I really like rostering him in this matchup.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS: $3,200 – He is going to leadoff for a team that has been scoring a ton of runs. Perdomo will find his way on base and likely score some runs today.
Ramon Laureano, OF: $3,200 – If Freeland has any issues with his control tonight, Laureano will likely make him pay. He’s been crushing lefties this year.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: $4,900 – With the numbers he has put up this season and his track record vs. lefties, Teoscar is underpriced. He fits in nicely as part of a mini LAD stack.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing to worry about here. The weather is mostly cooler so looking at Vegas lines is probably a good idea to get a sense of game environments.
Doing Lines In Vegas
ATL, MIL, NYY, and LAD all have the best Vegas implied team totals and that is all in line with my research. SEA is the only other team with a decent projection as they face newcomer JT Ginn and the OAK bullpen. I may give them an extra look as well.
