This is always an interesting week to evaluate streamers. We have the trade deadline on Tuesday, and that always makes these rotations unpredictable. It feels like we might have a crazy trade deadline, too, because there are dozens of teams that feel like they have a chance. With that in mind, let’s look at the matchups for this week and then dive into the streamers!
Favorable Team Matchups
8 Games
Baltimore Orioles (vs. TOR, at CLE)
7 Games
Atlanta Braves (at MIL, vs. MIA)
Chicago Cubs (at CIN, vs. STL)
Kansas City Royals (at CWS, at DET)
St. Louis Cardinals (vs. TEX, at CHC)
6 Games
Cincinnati Reds (vs. CHC, vs. SF)
Los Angeles Angels (vs. COL, vs. NYM)
New York Mets (vs. MIN, at LAA)
Pitching Streamers
Jordan Montgomery, ARI (vs. WAS, at PIT)
This is risky with the way Montgomery has looked for most of the season, but this guy is too talented to fall into the streamers category. The lefty currently has a 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, but he’s showing flashes of dropping those. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, posting a 1.69 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in those three outings. That’s more on par with what we’ve seen over recent years, registering a 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP between 2022 and 2023. The best part about this is the matchups, with Washington ranked 25th in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA, while Pittsburgh sits 22nd in K rate, 26th in OBP, and 27th in wOBA. He’s faced these two teams five times over the last two years, posting a 1.98 ERA against them.
Streamonator Valuation: $-19.9
Griffin Canning, LAA (vs. COL)
Canning has quietly been one of LA’s best pitchers, doing most of his damage over the last two months. The righty has allowed four runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts, posting a 4.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in that span. Those aren’t necessarily special averages, but they should bode well in a home start against Colorado. We say that because the Rockies rank last in nearly every offensive metric on the road in four of the last five years. They also sit 28th in xWOBA and 29th in K rate this season in all venues, projected to score only four runs in this matchup! When he faced them in Coors last season, Canning struck out seven batters across six scoreless innings!
Streamonator Valuation: $32.1
Brayan Bello, BOS (vs. SEA)
Bello has been one of our streamers numerous times this season because he can’t find much consistency. The ERA and WHIP are still ugly on the surface, but this is a spot where he can record double-digit strikeouts. We say that because Bello has a 10.4 K/9 rate across his last four starts and faces the most strikeout-heavy team in baseball. Seattle sits 28th in OBP, WOBA and runs scored, while posting an absurd 28 percent K rate. That’s the worst mark by a significant margin, and it’s only going to get worse with Julio Rodriguez sidelined. We also don’t mind that Bello is 3-0 against Seattle, thanks to his 3.94 ERA and 9.0 K/9 rate against them.
Streamonator Valuation: $13.3
Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL (vs. MIA)
Atlanta is finally starting to get going, and this rookie has been a huge boost at the backend of their rotation. He actually never appeared in Triple-A before the call-up, but it’s hard to argue with his 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9 rate between Single-A and Double-A. He struggled in his first two starts at this level, but Schwellenbach has a 3.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 rate in seven starts since then. He might be able to recapture that minor league form since he faces a minor league lineup here, with Miami ranked 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. They might get even worse after the trade deadline, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Schwellenbach enter this matchup as a -250 favorite!
All of this doesn’t even take into consideration that Schwellenbach threw seven scoreless innings against an elite Mets offense on Saturday while striking out 11 batters!
Streamonator Valuation: $15.7
Hitting Streamers
Ryan O’Hearn/Colton Cowser, BAL (vs. TOR, at CLE)
The Orioles are struggling mightily, but it’s tough to fade these guys in an eight-game week. There are only a handful of those all season and these lefty bats are fortunate that they face seven righties. That means Cowser and O’Hearn should get at least 25-30 at-bats this week, and these guys always bat in the heart of the lineup when they match up with a right-hander. O’Hearn typically bats clean-up, collecting a .348 OBP, .475 SLG, and .823 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. He’s also got a .455 OBP and 1.031 OPS across his last nine outings. Cowser is starting to get going once again, too, collecting a .500 OBP and 1.250 OPS across his last seven fixtures. He’s also got a .336 OBP, .468 SLG and .804 OPS against right-handers!
Jeff McNeil, NYM (vs. MIN, at LAA)
McNeil was arguably the worst position player in baseball through the opening three months, but he’s creeping back to what we’ve become accustomed to on the back of the baseball card. We’re talking about a guy who usually battles for the batting crown, generating a .290 AVG, .352 OBP, and .782 OPS throughout his career. That made his sub-.600 OPS tough to understand a few weeks ago, but he’s responded with a .371 AVG and 1.252 OPS across his last 10 outings. We expect the positive regression to keep creeping in the right direction, and it’s even more likely since he faces an LA team that ranks 28th in ERA and 27th in xwOBA while matching up with the backend of the Minnesota rotation.
Zack Neto, LAA (vs. COL, vs. NYM)
Neto isn’t an exciting fantasy option, but he’s one of the best streamers out there in a week like this. He’s projected to face at least three lefties this week, with Neto amassing a .429 AVG, .589 SLG, and 1.047 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That doesn’t even take into consideration his elite speed, swiping 18 bags this year as well. The best part of this might be the matchups, though, because the Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP while New York is sending out David Peterson’s 1.50 WHIP, Tylor Megil’s 6.00 ERA, and a replacement for Kodai Senga in their series against the Angels.
SAGNOF (Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face)
Steals Specialists
Xavier Edwards (MIA)
Edwards looks like the everyday leadoff hitter for this rebuilding Miami team. He’s recorded seven steals over his last 10 outings and has a .493 OBP and .947 OPS across his last 16 games!
Victor Robles (SEA)
Robles has also been inserted into the leadoff spot in Seattle, recording six steals over his last eight outings.
Saves Specialists
Victor Vodnik (COL)
Vodnik has recorded the last three saves for Colorado and has been their best pitcher all year. The righty has a 2.51 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9 rate across his last 12 appearances and should get all of the saves going forward.
Daniel Hudson (LAD)
This Dodgers situation has been frustrating, but Hudson has been their best reliever with Evan Phillips freefalling. Hudson has four saves in his last five appearances, amassing a 0.33 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 rate since May 4.
Feel free to comment here or reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel if you have any questions!
