For Gavin Stone, Jeff McNeil and Others on Contenders, It’s a Race Against the Clock to Return

We’re running out of season. With the field of contenders winnowed to the point that only two teams have Playoff Odds between 8% and 80%, much of the intrigue beyond jockeying for seeding concerns a race against the clock. Players have only so much time to recover from injuries, particularly new ones, and so some returns are in doubt. Their availability could very well affect how the playoffs unfold.

On that front, it was a weekend featuring bad news for some contenders as they reckoned with their latest bad breaks, figuratively and literally. Gavin Stone, the unexpected stalwart of the Dodgers rotation, landed on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, while Jeff McNeil, one of the Mets’ hottest hitters, suffered a fractured wrist. Whit Merrifield, who’s done good work filling in at second base for the Braves, broke a bone in his foot, and, if we shift focus to the fringes of the Wild Card race, the Mariners Luis Castillo strained a hamstring. Each of these situations deserves a closer look, so pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er.

Dodgers

Given last year’s 9.00 ERA in a 31-inning cup of coffee — the product of pitch-tipping, as it turns out — Stone was an unlikely candidate to lead the Dodgers in starts (25) and innings (140.1) to this point. Yet the 25-year-old righty has not only done that, posting a solid 3.53 ERA and 4.03 FIP, he’s been the only member of the team’s season-opening rotation to avoid the IL… until now. Even a couple of extra days to rest before Friday’s scheduled start weren’t enough to keep Stone from being sidelined.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters on Friday that Stone would be shut down from throwing for at least 10 days, while president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman admitted the team isn’t sure whether he’ll return in time for the postseason, adding, “I’m optimistic he is going to do everything he possibly can. There’s just so much unknown around it that we’re going to do all we can to dominate each day, and hopefully, when he starts throwing, he can ramp up from there. It’s just hard to speculate right now.”

Stone’s injury wouldn’t be such a big deal if the Dodgers didn’t have so many key starters already on the IL, including Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Clayton Kershaw. If the playoffs were to start today, the only certainty would be deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, with rookie Landon Knack the only other healthy starter who’s pitched acceptably enough (3.00 ERA, 4.55 IP in 54 innings) to merit getting the ball, and both Walker Buehler (5.67 ERA, 5.98 FIP in 54 innings) and Bobby Miller (7.79 ERA, 6.80 FIP in 49.2 innings) trying to find their way out of the tall grass after post-injury struggles.

The most recent starter to wind up on the IL is Kershaw. On August 30, in his seventh start since returning from shoulder surgery, the 36-year-old southpaw departed after just one inning and three runs allowed to the Diamondbacks due to a bone spur in his left big toe. Given the opponent, it was an uncomfortable reminder of the abrupt ending of his 2023 season, but thankfully, the injury wasn’t arm-related — or back-related, for that matter. He’s dealt with the bone spur for “maybe a couple of years” according to Roberts, and while it’s usually manageable, in this case, he had so much swelling he couldn’t push off the rubber and maintain his velocity. The Dodgers are optimistic Kershaw can return without surgery; he’s wearing a walking boot but has been able to play catch. While he’s been erratic when available (4.50 ERA and 3.55 FIP in 30 innings), he had a reasonably strong three-start stretch where he allowed just two runs in 16.1 innings against the Phillies, Brewers, and Cardinals from August 6–18.

If there’s good news, it’s that on Tuesday Yamamoto is slated to return from a nearly three-month absence due to a rotator cuff strain, facing the Cubs and Shota Imanaga. Before being sidelined with what was initially described as triceps tightness, the 25-year-old righty had pitched exceptionally well, delivering a 2.92 ERA and 2.69 FIP in 74 innings over 14 starts, and a 2.33 ERA and over six innings per turn if you don’t count his one-inning disaster in Seoul in the season’s second game. Yamamoto has made just two rehab starts of two innings apiece, with pitch counts of 31 and 53 for Triple-A Oklahoma City, so the expectation is that he’ll top out in the vicinity of 70–75 pitches and continue building up from there.

As for Glasnow, who has already set career highs for start (22) and innings (134), he’s working his way back from a mid-August diagnosis of elbow tendinitis. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen on Saturday, his first time throwing off the mound since being sidelined, and will throw at least one more on Tuesday before facing live hitters. With Double-A Tulsa’s season ending on September 15 and Oklahoma City’s on September 22, the Dodgers are hoping to squeeze in at least one rehab start before he returns.

One more injury to note. If Friday’s news about Stone wasn’t bad enough, the sight of Teoscar Hernández departing after being hit on the right foot by Matthew Boyd was particularly nerve-wracking, as the 31-year-old slugger has come up big time and again for the team, hitting .266/.331/.488 (128 wRC+) with 28 homers. Fortunately, he’s been diagnosed with a contusion and could be back early this week.

As with an offense that has largely bludgeoned opponents into submission since the returns of Mookie Betts and Max Muncy — they’ve averaged 5.56 runs per game since August 19 while going 13-5, buying them breathing room in the NL West race — the Dodgers have the starting pitching to win it all. Yet their chances of doing so come down to how many of these guys will be available and effective in October. In that light, their first-round bye looms large, particularly compared to the other teams in this roundup.

Mets

Thanks to a nine-game winning streak that briefly carried them into sole possession of the third NL Wild Card slot, the Mets have been the majors’ hottest team, but if they’re to secure a playoff spot, they’ll have to do it without McNeil, who is expected to miss four to six weeks — the rest of the regular season and then some. The 32-year-old second baseman fractured his right wrist during the fifth inning of Friday’s game, when he was hit by a curveball from the Reds’ Brandon Williamson while trying to bunt:

Neither McNeil nor the Mets initially believed the injury was particularly serious, as he stayed in the game, ran the bases and played the field in the sixth inning. Only when he was readying himself to bat again did he realize he couldn’t continue. Via MLB.com:

“I thought nothing of it really, it was a breaking ball: 95 percent sure it hit the [wrist] guard I was wearing,” McNeil said. “It didn’t hurt that bad running the bases, and then I started to feel it a little bit warming up the next inning, just throwing the ball to first base… Went into the cage, and it just didn’t feel good to swing. So it was more that turning-over motion that made it flare up.”

Harrison Bader pinch-hit for McNeil, and Jose Iglesias, who had pinch-hit for Jesse Winker earlier in the inning, took over at second base in a game the Mets won 6-4 in 10 innings on a Mark Vientos walk-off homer. An MRI taken on Saturday revealed McNeils’ fracture. At best, his timeline would make him available some time in early to mid-October, should the Mets still be playing.

Based on his overall numbers, McNeil is in the midst of his second subpar season in a row, hitting .238/.308/.384 with 12 homers, and five steals. Both his 98 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR are his lowest marks since 2021, but his overall numbers undersell his in-season rebound. When the Mets started the season 24-35, McNeil hit just .227/.296/.320 (80 wRC+) while playing nearly every day; until May 30, all of his days off came against righties, with lefty-swinging Joey Wendle taking seven starts in his place.

Wendle didn’t hit, however, and the Mets DFA’d and then released him in mid-May. On May 31, they recalled Iglesias from Triple-A Syracuse, and from June 3–8, manager Carlos Mendoza started him at second, with McNeil benched in order to get a reset. Since then, Mendoza has used a modified platoon, with McNeil starting just twice against lefties, against whom he’s hit just .234/.284/.336 (78 wRC+) this year, and Iglesias taking some starts against righties while hitting an out-of-character .316/.364/.440 (129 wRC+) in 209 PA overall.

McNeil didn’t really start hitting until after the All-Star break, but he’s been on fire since:

Though his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate haven’t changed much, McNeil’s barrel rate more than quadrupled, and his home run rate more than tripled, from 1.5% of all plate appearances to 4.7%. Among all Mets, his 157 wRC+ in the second half trails only that of MVP candidate Francisco Lindor (159). Between McNeil’s tear and the arrival of Iglesias, second base has gone from a position of weakness to one of strength, the small sample of September notwithstanding:

As for where the Mets go from here, the likelihood is that Iglesias — who has hit for a 115 wRC+ in 138 PA against righties and a 153 wRC+ in 72 PA against lefties — will get the bulk of the playing time at second. Journeyman infielder Pablo Reyes, who has been limited to a single pinch-running appearance since being called up on September 1, is the backup for the moment. The 31-year-old righty-swinging utilityman hit just .183/.234/.217 (23 wRC+) in 64 PA for the Red Sox earlier this year but was reasonably productive as recently as last year (.287/.339/.377, 94 wRC+). The Mets could dip into their minor league system to call up Luisangel Acuña, a 22-year-old 45-FV prospect who ranks sixth on their updated team list and who, as you might have guessed by his name, is the younger brother of Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. He hasn’t hit much since being acquired from the Rangers in the Max Scherzer trade, with a .261/.301/.362 (71 wRC+) line at Syracuse, but he did steal 38 bases and can play both middle infield positions as well as center field.

Braves

With the Mets’ 3-1 loss to the Reds on Sunday and the Braves’ 4-3 walk-off win over the Blue Jays, the two NL East rivals are both 78-65, tied for the third Wild Card spot. Atlanta’s middle infield has a new injury as well, as Merrifield fouled a ball off his left foot during Friday’s game against the Blue Jays and suffered a fracture. Based on initial CT and MRI scans, the Braves believed he would miss six to eight weeks, but after consulting with a foot specialist Saturday, the team is optimistic he can return much sooner. “It’s a stable fracture,” Merrifield told reporters on Saturday. “So, we’ll try to get the soft tissue and swelling down. It’s just a pain tolerance thing after that from my understanding.”

The 35-year-old Merrifield spent the season’s first half with the Phillies, hitting just .199/.277/.295 (64 wRC+) in 174 PA before drawing his release, but since joining the Braves in late July and filling in for the injured Ozzie Albies, he’s hit a respectable .243/.359/.342 (103 wRC+) in 134 PA, though his defense at second base has been at best a mixed bag according to the metrics (-6 DRS, 1 FRV).

As for Albies, the 27-year-old switch-hitter has been out since July 22 after fracturing his left wrist in a collision during a stolen base attempt. It was his second trip to the IL this season; he also missed 10 days after breaking the big toe of his right foot in mid-April. When available, he’s hit a modest .258/.310/.407 (98 wRC+) in 394 PA. While he’s been working towards a return, he continues to experience discomfort while swinging left-handed, generally his weaker side (96 wRC+ career, compared to 146 wRC+ batting righty against lefties). The Braves haven’t ruled out the possibility of Albies returning and batting exclusively as a righty but are leaving that decision with the player, according to manager Brian Snitker.

With Albies still out along with Austin Riley — who fractured his right hand on August 19 when hit by a pitch and is expected to miss six to eight weeks — the Braves acquired Cavan Biggio from the Giants on Saturday via a minor league deal. This is the 29-year-old Biggio’s fourth organization of 2024. He began the season with the Blue Jays, was DFA’d and traded to the Dodgers on June 12, then DFA’d again and released on August 8. The Giants signed him on August 23, but he only played for their Triple-A Sacramento affiliate, where he went 7-for-43. He hit a combined .197/.316/.306 (86 wRC+) in 219 PA with the Blue Jays and Dodgers, which explains why he’s fallen out of favor, but as recently as last year, he produced a 102 wRC+ for Toronto. Since he was not in the Braves organization as of September 1, he’s ineligible for the postseason roster, but considering that the player the Braves started at second base three times in the past week in place of Merrifield, Luke Williams, is a career .223/.284/.294 (61 wRC+) hitter in 307 PA, just about anything looks like an upgrade. Eli White, who came off the bench to play right field and then second base in the late innings on Sunday and went 2-for-2 while scoring the tying and winning runs, is also in the mix, but he’s a career .189/.265/.304 (59 wRC+) hitter in 434 PA.

Mariners

What was once a 10-game AL West lead over the Astros is now a 4.5-game deficit, as the Mariners have gone 29-40 since that high-water mark on June 18. Now 73-71, the team still has slim hopes (7.6%) of reaching the postseason by either the division or Wild Card routes, but the rotation with the majors’ lowest ERA (3.36) and fourth-highest WAR (14.3) may not get much more help from Castillo. The 31-year-old righty left Sunday’s start against the Cardinals after just three innings due to a left hamstring strain. He’ll undergo an MRI on Monday that will determine the severity and his outlook.

Though his 3.64 ERA ranks fourth among Mariners starters and his 3.93 FIP fifth, Castillo leads the team — and the AL — with 30 starts. He’s second on the staff and sixth in the majors in innings (175.1), but has been slightly less effective in the second half than the first. The drop-off to a fill-in starter (likely Emerson Hancock, who’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA and 5.43 FIP in 45.1 innings) is substantial, particularly for a team that faces such a steep uphill battle to get to October.