As we approach the end of the first half of the baseball season, it’s time to look ahead to what the second half might bring. After the All-Star break, we can at least expect some intriguing developments. Here at Razzball, we love to make bold predictions at the beginning of each season and now we are hitting it midstream. Today, for our hitter profiles, I’m sharing some predictions for the second half. Some of these are optimistic, while others might be a bit painful (sorry Jeimer), but it’s all in good fun as we gear up for an exciting second half of the baseball season. Join us for this week’s Hitter Profiles as we boldly go into the second half!
Prediction: Xander Bogaerts will be useful in the second half
This doesn’t sound so bold to start, but Xander has been disappointing this season, delivering a .219 average with minimal counting stats over 47 games. After nearly completing a 20/20 season in 2023, many fantasy owners have dropped him due to his poor start. Bogaerts recently started a rehab assignment that included playing in the field, indicating he’s on the path back to the Padres lineup. There are reasons to be optimistic about Bogaerts in the second half. Last year, he had a stronger second half after struggling before the break. Additionally, given the injuries we’ve seen this season, it won’t take much for him to be useful in the middle infield. If Bogaerts can regain his form, he could be a valuable asset for fantasy teams down the stretch.
Prediction: Josh Jung will be a top 30 hitter in the second half
We’re betting on health and production with this prediction. Jung hasn’t swung a bat for two weeks and has been shut down until after the All-Star break due to a wrist issue, but there’s reportedly no structural damage. Jung is poised to continue the breakout that started in 2023 when he hit .266 with 23 homers. He has the potential to hit 35 homers at his peak, and improvements in his plate approach this year should put that production within reach. Jung’s underlying metrics, such as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate, indicate that he has the tools to be a top hitter. Just look at his Savant profile from last season to see the potential for a big second half.
Prediction: Masyn Winn will finish with a .300+ batting average for the 2024 season
Winn has the highest qualifying line drive percentage in the majors in the first half. He’s maturing as a hitter and hit better than .300 in two of the three months in the first half. With top-tier sprint speed (88th percentile according to Baseball Savant), he can leg out hits as well as anybody. Winn’s ability to make consistent contact and his speed make him a threat to maintain a high batting average. If you need batting average for a reasonable price, Winn is a solid choice. His approach at the plate and ability to put the ball in play consistently suggest he can keep up his impressive performance.
Prediction: Heston Kjerstad will finish the season with 75+ games played
For Heston to play in 75 games this season, he needs to participate in 80% of Baltimore’s remaining games, which hasn’t been the norm for the Orioles. This prediction is more about other teams in the majors. Every team selling at the deadline would love a player like Heston. With the Orioles sitting in first place in the AL East and having subpar pitching, now is the time to capitalize on their young hitting talent. Heston is a prime candidate for a trade and has nothing left to prove in the minors. If he gets traded to a team in need of his skill set, he could see a significant increase in playing time and make an impact in the second half.
Prediction: Jeimer Candelario will come crashing down and finish the season with fewer than 20 homers
Candelario has been a useful fantasy corner infielder, hitting .240 with 14 homers and a combined 70 runs and RBIs. However, his value is tied mainly to his power production. If we look at the predictive variable of HR/FB rate, all top 40 qualified hitters at the top of the HR/FB leaderboard have a hard-hit rate of at least 30%. Jeimer, maintaining the #41 spot on that list has a hard-hit rate of 27%. This resembles his 2022 season, where he had 13 homers across 124 games. Without significant power, Candelario’s fantasy value diminishes. The underlying metrics suggest regression is likely, and fantasy owners should be prepared for a drop in production.
Prediction: Vinnie Pasquantino will go on a homer binge and finish the season with 30 homers
Opposite of Candelario, Vinnie has an 8% HR/FB rate, slightly below his career marks. However, he stands out with the hardest-hit balls among players with an HR/FB rate under 10%. A slight adjustment in launch angle could result in many more homers. The spray chart suggests he is just missing and more power is coming for Vinnie. Fantasy owners should be excited about his potential for a power surge in the second half.
Prediction: Trea Turner will deliver first-round value in the second half
Since returning from the injured list, Turner is hitting .333 with a wRC+ of 155. While he hasn’t been running much yet, he still has top 5% sprint speed and plays in a top-five producing offense. Last year, Turner had a significant second-half bounce back and could do it again. This prediction might be a stretch, but it’s not out of bounds considering his talent. Turner’s combination of speed, power, and hitting ability makes him a candidate to be one of the top players in the second half. If he can stay healthy and continue to perform at a high level, he could provide first-round value for fantasy teams.
So Razzball faithful, what are some of your biggest boldest predictions for the second half? Hopefully, we don’t go zero-seven, but we will take a double and a few singles to call this one a win!
