Brent Rooker has absolutely broken out in 2024, delivering an incredible season, hitting .304 with 38 homers and 11 steals. Coming into the season, the Oakland Athletic was seen as a power-only bat that would drain your batting average. However, throughout this season, he has proven his value to be much more by improving his plate approach and adding some speed to boot. This performance has Rooker ranked as the 10th most valuable hitter on the Razzball Player Rater in 2024. Heading into next season, we have to view him as a top-three-round player, especially considering the move to Sacramento, where he’ll benefit from short porches down both lines. This week, in our final Hitter Profile for 2024, we look ahead to next season and hunt for the next Brent Rooker-type breakout.
In 2023, Rooker was a solid hitter focused on power, with limited upside beyond that calling card. He posted a .246 average with 30 homers and four steals while sitting near the bottom of the league in strikeout rate and in the bottom quarter in xBA. He had middling speed and an approach that didn’t attack at the plate but rather tried to use the whole field. We will be using Statcast numbers to dig into Rooker’s 2023 profile, looking for similar stories heading into 2024.
Brent Rooker 2023:
Matt Wallner
The 26-year-old has had back-to-back partial seasons of similar production. Overall in 2024, Wallner has delivered 13 homers, 37 RBI, and a .258 average. This has come with a high 48% flyball rate and nearly 37% strikeout rate. These numbers are nothing to write home about and offer little reason to get excited. However, if we look at his power, it’s off the charts.
Wallner has been able to produce top-end hard-hit rates, exit velocities, and bat speed. He continues to struggle with his plate approach, as he is extremely aggressive. Wallner sports a 39% first-pitch swinging rate, roughly 10 points higher than the league average. Combine that with a higher whiff rate, and he simply isn’t taking advantage of his power on the right pitches. This is far from an easy fix, as the strikeouts significantly hamper Wallner. There’s work to do and still room for growth at this point for the Twin, but it seems to be more of an outside shot given the size of the adjustments needed.
**Rooker Scale:** 2 out of 10
Kerry Carpenter
Carpenter has struggled this year, only accumulating 80 games played due to back issues. Despite those concerns, he has been productive when on the field with a wRC+ of 156. That figure rests on a 15-homer, 34-run, 50-RBI line. Double those results, and we’re talking about a breakout season for Carpenter in Detroit. The biggest shift for him this year has been putting the ball in the air more often to take advantage of his power stroke. Compared to 2023, he saw his flyball rate jump seven points, which is significant when you’re delivering homers on 20% of those flyballs. Digging a bit deeper, there are strikeout concerns with Carpenter, as he whiffs at a 26% rate and seems to have no trust whatsoever against lefties (28 at-bats all season). There’s solid power in the bat and the ability to hit for a strong average. However, Carpenter has two big issues: inconsistent playing time and no speed to show in the box score. He can make a leap with improved health, but to reach that Rooker level, he’ll need to do much more.
**Rooker Scale:** 4 out of 10
Michael Toglia
What would an article looking for a breakout bat next season be without a Colorado Rockie in the mix? Michael Toglia has had a strong 2024 campaign with 25 long balls, 52 RBI, and a disappointing .219 average. That lack of RBI production despite the homers is eerily reminiscent of Brent Rooker in 2022 (30 homers and 69 RBI), which speaks to the team as much as the player. Back to Toglia: he also managed to sneak in eight steals on the season with league-average speed. Throughout the year, Toglia has seen more playing time and some of his metrics improve, including his walk rate nearly doubling from the first to the second half and a six-point jump in his line drive rate. There are a lot of arrows pointing in the right direction from a growth standpoint, but the Statcast profile is hard to ignore.
For starters, that .219 average has some positive regression coming, with a .250 xBA. Additionally, he’s in the top 10% of the league in nearly every power category, seeing a significant improvement this season in his ability to barrel the ball. The strikeouts continue to be a challenge, as his pitch selection remains merely league-average. The good news for Toglia is that this is the key issue in his profile, and it can improve with experience. For the final kicker: the top comparable batted-ball profile for Michael Toglia this season is… Brent Rooker. While the Rockies’ development system may leave something to be desired, this is just too tempting.
**Rooker Scale:** 9 out of 10
Thanks for reading along this season with our Hitter Profiles and Top 100 Hitters for the fantasy baseball season. Get some rest this offseason, and we’ll see you next time around.
