Hitter Profiles: Targeting 2025 Values

At this point in the fantasy baseball season, only the last trade deadlines remain. For everyone else, the waiver wire is the only hope for those teams still battling for glory. This week, we set our sights on what can be done for those teams that have packed it up and are looking ahead. Setting up for the 2025 season, we’re dredging the depths of the unwanted and forgotten for keeper value that could pay off handsomely. Whether due to an injury-shortened season, terrible luck, or simply underappreciation, there is still work to be done. Welcome to this edition of hitter profiles—we’re browsing the bargain bins, hoping to stumble upon a Picasso tucked between the dusty old castoffs.

• Austin Wells (30% owned) – Over the last month, Austin Wells has been hanging out in the Bronx as the cleanup hitter behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. During that time, he’s hit .323 with three homers and 17 RBIs. Clearly, the Yankees have faith in the young catcher, placing him in a run-producing position while also dealing away top catching prospect Agustin Ramírez at the deadline. Having only played a partial season, extrapolating his numbers gives us a 15-20 homer bat, with 60-70 RBIs and a reasonable average. Additionally, he has been unlucky this season in the power department, with his minor league HR/FB rate being about 50% higher than what he’s experienced in the big leagues. The scenario and trust the Yankees have put in Wells make him an easy second catcher with the potential to crack the top 10, especially with some growth going into 2025.
• George Springer (77% owned) – Through the first two and a half months of the season, George Springer looked like he needed a career change. During that span, he delivered a .198 average with only five homers, resulting in a 71 wRC+. On the full season, Springer has one of the bottom 10 BABIP results, driving a .219 average, although his xBA sits at a much more palatable .256. Since that mid-June timeframe, he has turned things around a bit, with luck normalizing and hitting .245 with twelve homers and 30+ runs and RBIs apiece. The Blue Jays are certainly fading, and Springer has still been a disappointment, but the 124 wRC+ during that time indicates there’s still fuel in the tank. He still sits in the top quarter of the league in sprint speed and has been efficient stealing bases, swiping thirteen bags in fourteen attempts. He’s not as valuable as he once was, but he will likely tumble past his value on 2025 boards and might be picked up for free in some dynasty leagues where managers have simply looked to move on.

• Lars Nootbaar (22% owned) – The Cardinals have been a bit of a mess this year in the offensive talent department. Plagued with injuries in 2024, there were reasonably high expectations coming into the season for Lars Nootbaar, especially after his showing in the World Baseball Classic for Japan. However, he has been one of the unluckiest players in the majors this season. According to Baseball Savant, he leads the field in the difference between his expected slugging and actual results. Moreover, he sits in the top ten in poor luck on batting average, with an xBA of .265 compared to his actual .230. Looking at comparable profiles, his contact has been more like Ketel Marte, William Contreras, and Jarren Duran, which does not show in his final numbers. Unfortunately, he has also been getting fewer plate appearances against lefties, even though he has been about league average in his career against southpaws. The Cardinals need a reset but seem committed to giving Nootbaar solid playing time. Being healthy in 2025 with consistent playing time would be a huge win. A season with a respectable batting average, 20+ homers, and a handful of steals is easily within his grasp next year with these contact results.

• Kerry Carpenter (55% owned) – Kerry Carpenter has seemed to be on the brink of a breakout for some time over the last few seasons. Another cleanup hitter on our list, FanGraphs (27%) and Statcast (47%) differ significantly on his hard-hit rates. With Carpenter running at a 150-game pace of 31 homers, Statcast seems to be doing a much better job capturing the true hitter, placing him in the top third of the league. Even though he has had a disjointed season, the results have been there with a 147 wRC+ when he’s been on the field. There’s a lot to like for a guy who just doesn’t get the attention he deserves in Detroit. Even for the remaining portion of this year, the Tigers arguably have the easiest schedule, making Carpenter a sneaky grab to close out 2024 and leading into a potential breakout in 2025.

There is no rest for the weary and for the dedicated fantasy baseball manager.  Now go scour the wire and toss out those last minute trades as it is never too early to look at next year.  At least that is what the White Sox keep telling us!