Welcome back to the final 2024 edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players series.
With the regular season winding down, most fantasy league seasons are done outside of the few still determining their champion this weekend. While fantasy seasons are basically done, that does not mean you are finished with your dynasty league. In fact, now is the start of the 2025 season!
Just like real MLB teams, the offseason doesn’t mean you get to put your feet on the table and not think about your team until February or March. The offseason is the time for you to make your plans for next season.
Who should you target in free agency or draft? What prospects should you go after? Which players should I target in a trade?
And if you really want to be prepared, now is the time to start putting together your rankings. (NOTE: If that is a daunting task for you, don’t fret! After a few weeks off, I will be back with the position-by-position dynasty rankings throughout the offseason. That will then lead into my overall player rankings ahead of spring training.)
Let’s circle back to a player you should target this offseason. My final player to highlight this year is Rhett Lowder of the Cincinatti Reds. This is a player who was pitching at Wake Forest just last year. Now, after only 22 games of minor league experience, he is pitching for the Reds.
So let’s take a look at Lowder
Career Statistics
| LEVEL | YEAR | W-L | G-GS | IP | H | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA | 2021-23 | 30-5 | 49-47 | 287.1 | 260 | 3.95 | 1.155 | 10.2 | 2.3 |
| A+|AA|AAA | 2024 | 6-4 | 22-22 | 108.2 | 101 | 3.73 | 1.150 | 9.4 | 2.0 |
| Reds | 2024 | 2-2 | 5-5 | 25.2 | 22 | 1.40 | 1.286 | 7.4 | 3.9 |
NCAA Career
In three years pitching for Wake Forest, Rhett Lowder was a mainstay in the team’s starting rotation. His freshman year was a rough introduction to ACC baseball as he went 4-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 12 starts and 14 appearances overall. While the ERA was high, he struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings, providing a glimpse of what he could do on the mound.
As a sophomore, he improved to 11-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.178 WHIP enroute to winning the ACC Pitcher of the Year honor. While his strikeout rate dropped to 9.5/9 innings, his walk rate dropped from 2.9 to 2.4/9 innings.
Then came his junior season. In 19 starts, Lowder went 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA. His strikeout rate jumped to 10.7/9 innings and his walk rate dropped to 1.8/9. His 15 wins led Division I baseball while his ERA and 143 strikeouts ranked fourth in the country as he has named ACC Pitcher of the Year again. Thanks to Lowder, the Demon Deacons reached the College World Series for the first time since 1955.
The Road to Cincinatti
With the seventh pick in last summer’s MLB draft, the Reds quickly pounced on Rhett Lowder, making him the second pitcher selected after Paul Skenes, who went first overall to Pittsburgh.
Not wanting to overwork Lowder after his 120.1 innings pitched at Wake Forest, the Reds didn’t send Lowder to a minor league team in 2023. So the first taste of professional ball came this spring when Lowder was assigned to High-A Dayton. Lowder didn’t stay there long as he made only five starts, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP with a 10.3 K/9 rate and a 2.1 BB/9 rate.
Promoted to Double-A Chattanooga, Lowder made 16 starts and went 4-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.267 WHIP. The ERA isn’t great, but he still maintained a strikeout per inning rate as well as a 2.1 BB/9 rate. Not afraid of challenging Lowder, the Reds promoted him to Triple-A Louisville.
If you blinked, you missed Lowder’s stay in Triple-A. He made only one start, pitching six innings and allowing only three hits while striking out seven and not issuing a walk.
Welcome to The Show
The Reds obviously loved what they saw from Lowder at Louisville as they promoted him to the majors, with his first start coming on Aug. 30 against Milwaukee. Lowder allowed only two hits and one run in four innings of work with six strikeouts. The only real blemish was four walks.
Since that debut, Rhett Lowder has made four more starts and allowed only three runs 21.2 innings of work. All three of those runs came in one game against Minnesota on Sept. 15. Otherwise, he threw 6.1 shutout innings against Houston, five shutout innings versus St. Louis, and five shutout innings against Pittsburgh.
The Tools
Rhett Lowder features a four-pitch mix: four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup.
The four-seamer averages 93.5 mph, so it is not a fastball that blows hitters away. But it is a pitch they have trouble squaring up. While opposing batters currently have a .333 average against the pitch (4-for-12), all four hits have been singles and the xBA is .278. Additionally, the average EV against the pitch is 81.7 mph. Lowder pairs the four-seamer with a sinker that averages 92.4 mph.
In 25.2 innings of work, he has allowed only two extra-base hits (both doubles) out of the 22 hits he has allowed. Why do I mention this? Because thanks to his sinker that averages 27 inches of vertical drop and 16.7 inches of horizontal break and a four-seamer that features 10.5 inches of horizontal break, Lowder has a 41.3% ground ball rate against him.
Preventing home runs is pretty easy when the ball in on the ground nearly half the time it is put into play.
Lowder’s slider and change have also been effective. Hitters have only a .226 average against the slider with a .290 SLG while they are managing only a .105 average and slugging percentage against his change, a pitch that was considered one of the best in college and now during his early pro career.
The Future
Lowder is the type of pitcher to target during the offseason. With his late callup to the majors, he was not pounced on in a lot of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, meaning he is a good free agent target.
If you have to trade for Rhett Lowder, the price to pay obviously depends on your trading partner. If the owner is rebuilding and knows what he is doing, getting Lowder won’t be easy. But if the owner is in a win-now window, flipping a solid veteran for Lowder would be a good move as he has years of success ahead of him.
He should become a solid No. 3 starter at worst for the Reds and could easily slot in as a No. 2 as he gains more experience and thus gives the club a solid pitcher to follow Hunter Greene in the rotation.
Thank You
If you have been reading this series every weekend, then I just want to say thank you. I know not everyone has agreed with some of the players I have highlighted, but at least that means you are reading and taking the time to interact with me. That is the fun of doing something like this.
But the goal is about learning about a player who you may have had questions about. Hopefully, I have answered those questions.
To repeat, I will be taking the next few weeks off. But be on the lookout for the start of the 2025 Top Keepers series starting in October. Relievers will be the first group that will be featured. Until then, enjoy the playoffs and get to work on your offseason plans!
